New Hampshire Senate Race

CQ Politics Race Rating: Tossup

Incumbent — Judd Gregg (R); Will retire at end of current term (announced Feb. 12, 2009)

Gregg, who would have been favored had he run in 2010, announced he would not be a candidate for a fourth term in February. He revealed this at the press conference in which he confirmed his decision to withdraw from consideration as Commerce secretary in the then-new Democratic administration of Barack Obama, a cross-party nomination that he initially accepted even though he disagrees with Obama on many key issues.

Gregg’s retirement was unwelcome news for New Hampshire Republicans, who — like their GOP counterparts throughout New England — are fighting a Democratic trend.

While Gregg was easily re-elected in 2004, the Democrats over the ensuing two election cycles won the state’s other Senate seat, both House seats and control of the state legislature. Meanwhile, Democratic Gov. John Lynch has won re-election landslides and Obama easily carried the state for president.

The Democrats appear set on Paul W. Hodes, the second-term representative of New Hampshire’s 2nd District, as their nominee.

Yet despite the recent partisan trend in the state, Republicans say they are bullish on their chances to hold Gregg’s seat.

The GOP’s scenario became clearer in mid-2009 when ex-Sen. John E. Sununu — who was unseated by Democrat Jeanne Shaheen in 2008 — decided against the Senate comeback bid he had been mulling and announced he would not be a candidate.

Now party leaders appear to be coalescing behind the candidacy of Kelly Ayotte, who resigned as state Attorney General to prepare her bid. A September fundraiser headlined by National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn of Texas and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky sent a clear signal that Ayotte is the party’s favorite.

But Cornyn has said the committee is not officially endorsing her, at least not yet. And she will not have the field for the September Republican primary to herself. Former state Board of Education President Ovide Lamontagne, the 1996 GOP candidate for governor, is also running, as is investment banker William Binnie. Republican National Committeeman Sean Mahoney is close to getting in the race, and businessman Jim Bender has set up an exploratory committee.

One prominent Republican, former Rep. Charles Bass, appears to have taken himself out of the Senate running. He has instead set up an exploratory committee for a possible campaign to reclaim the 2nd District seat that Hodes — who unseated Bass in 2006 — has left open to run for the Senate.

Race Information

• Incumbent: Judd Gregg, R
• First Elected: 1992 (3rd term)
• Last Elected: 2004 (66.18%)
• Incumbent Status: Will retire at end of current term (announced Feb. 12, 2009)
• CQ Politics Race Rating: Tossup

State Information

• U.S. Senate Delegation: 1 Democrat, 1 Republican
• U.S. House Delegation: 2 Democrats

New Hampshire's Other Senator

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen-D

First Elected: 2008 (1st term)

Last Elected: 2008 (51.62%)

State Offices

Governor: John Lynch, D

First Elected: 2004 (3rd term)

State House Control: Democratic

State Senate Control: Democratic