Election 2008: The Northeast: GOP Tries to Recoup

Both parties list this as a major 2008 target. While voters in this swing district preferred President Bush by 2 percentage points in 2004, Shea-Porter won perhaps the biggest House upset of 2006, denying centrist Bradley’s bid for a third term by almost 3 points. Bradley is vying to reclaim the seat, which takes in Manchester and areas north and east, but faces a strong Sept. 9 primary challenge from John Stephen, who stresses his fiscal conservatism when he was the state Health and Human Services commissioner.

NEW YORK 19 — John Hall , D

2006: Hall 51%, Rep. Sue W. Kelly (R) 49%

Hall has banked $1.1 million in his campaign account after just 15 months in office, and Republicans have struggled to recruit a strong unifying candidate in this politically competitive Hudson Valley territory. They might have found one in George Oros, the party leader in the Westchester County legislature, but in recent weeks Joseph DioGuardi, a congressman for two terms in the 1980s and more recently an advocate for Albanian rights, has invested $390,000 in a possible comeback bid.

NEW YORK 20 — Kirsten Gillibrand , D

2006: Gillibrand 53%, Rep. John E. Sweeney (R) 47%

Several Republicans are battling for the nomination to challenge Gillibrand, who defeated Sweeney in 2006 amid his ethics issues and wasted little time to begin campaigning for 2008 for the upper Hudson Valley seat. Gillibrand enters the race as the best-funded freshman incumbent ($2.5 million in cash on hand as April began) but — luckily for Republicans — one would-be challenger, former state party chief Sandy Treadwell, a General Electric heir, has already been willing to put $950,000 of his own fortune into the race.

PENNSYLVANIA 4 — Jason Altmire , D

2006: Altmire 52%, Rep. Melissa A. Hart (R) 48%

Altmire, an upset winner in the Republican-tilting Pittsburgh suburbs two years ago, will be able to defend his seat with one of the least liberal records among House Democrats. Hart, a conservative rising star during her three terms, won the right to a rematch in last week’s primary but hasn’t had the fundraising firepower a former member generally draws.

PENNSYLVANIA 10 — Christopher Carney , D

2006: Carney 53%, Rep. Don Sherwood (R) 47%

It took a sex scandal to bring down four-term incumbent Sherwood in a solidly Republican part of the state stretching from the Susquehanna Valley to the northeast corner. Carney’s academic and military credentials argue against a one-term “fluke” label, but he will surely face a difficult challenge from Chris Hackett, the owner of an employee placement firm, who won last week’s GOP primary.

Election 2008: The Northeast: GOP Tries to Recoup

LEANS REPUBLICAN

CONNECTICUT 4 — Christopher Shays , R

2006: Shays 51%, Diane Farrell (D) 48%

Investment banker Jim Himes hopes his anti-war views, and maybe Democratic presidential coattails, will be the formula that ends Shays’ 21-year career representing this swing district in the state’s suburban southwest corner. Shays generally backs the current course in Iraq, but his socially moderate views have allowed him to hold on as the only GOP House member in New England. The incumbent and challenger each entered April with $1.1 million in their campaign accounts.

NEW JERSEY 3 — Open ( H. James Saxton , R, retiring)

2006: Saxton 58%, Rich Sexton (D) 41%

A potentially divisive June 3 Republican primary campaign is under way in this south-central swing district, most of which is open for the first time since 1984. Saxton has endorsed fellow Burlington County resident Chris Myers — the mayor of Medford, a Navy veteran and a Lockheed Martin executive, but Republican Rep. Christopher H. Smith is helping Ocean County Freeholder John P. “Jack” Kelly. The Democrats, meanwhile, have united behind state Sen. John H. Adler. President Bush carried the district by 3 points in 2004, but Al Gore won it by 10 points in 2000.

NEW JERSEY 7 — Open ( Mike Ferguson , R, retiring)

2006: Ferguson 49%, Linda Stender (D) 48%

Eight Republicans are competing to replace Ferguson, who’s leaving after eight years; the front-runners are state Sen. Leonard Lance, Scotch Plains Mayor Martin Marks, Summit Councilwoman P. Kelly Hatfield and public relations consultant Kate Whitman, whose mother, Christine Todd Whitman, is the former governor and EPA chief. But Stender, a state representative who came close to winning last time, has the Democratic nomination in hand. The suburban New York district tilts Republican but remains highly competitive.

NEW YORK 26 — Open ( Thomas M. Reynolds , R , retiring)

2006: Reynolds 52%, Jack Davis (D) 48%

Reynolds’ departure after a decade — in which he chaired his party’s losing effort to hold the House in 2006 — opens up the Republican-leaning district with no clear GOP front-runner, although the current buzz is about businessmen Christopher Lee and Rick Lewis. Democrats also are likely to face a major primary battle Sept. 9: candidates are Iraq veteran Jon Powers, who has endorsements from six of the district’s seven county Democratic committees; industrialist Jack Davis, who’s run twice before and vows to invest $3 million in this bid; and lawyer Alice Kryzan.

Election 2008: The Northeast: GOP Tries to Recoup

NEW YORK 29 — John R. “Randy” Kuhl Jr. , R

2006: Kuhl 51%, Eric Massa (D) 49%

Kuhl, who seriously contemplated retiring after just two terms, faces a difficult rematch against Massa, a former Naval officer and Pentagon aide who came within 6,000 votes last time in this Southern Tier district, drawn to be the most solidly Republican House seat in the state. At the start of the month the challenger had $565,000 in the bank — $200,000 more than the incumbent.

PENNSYLVANIA 3 — Phil English , R

2006: English 54%, Steven Porter (D) 42%

English’s underwhelming performance last time against a weak candidate, after a series of much easier victories, has Democrats bullish that he can be denied an eighth term in Erie and the rest of the state’s industrial northwestern corner. Last week’s crowded Democratic primary was won by Kathy Dahlkemper, the director of the Lake Erie Arboretum.

PENNSYLVANIA 6 — Jim Gerlach , R

2006: Gerlach 51%, Lois Murphy (D) 49%

Gerlach has won all three of his elections by 3 points or less, seeming to guarantee another tight race in this swing district covering suburbs and exurbs of Philadelphia. The Democratic nominee is Bob Roggio, a retired businessman who will argue Gerlach is too conservative for his constituency.

DEMOCRAT FAVORED

CONNECTICUT 2 — Joe Courtney , D

2006: Courtney 50%, Rep. Rob Simmons (R) 50%

Courtney was an obvious target for Republicans after he unseated a three-term congressman by just 83 votes, but tepid fundraising by the recruited challenger — Sean Sullivan, a former commander of the Groton submarine base, a major district employer — has raised concerns within the GOP about their ability to reclaim the state’s rural eastern end.

Election 2008: The Northeast: GOP Tries to Recoup

MAINE 1 — Open ( Tom Allen , D, running for the Senate)

2006: Allen, 61%, Darlene J. Curley (R) 31%

The district, which takes in Portland and Augusta, is Democratic enough to draw a large field of viable candidates to the June 10 primary. Holding a big fundraising lead is Chellie Pingree, a former state legislative leader who ran for the Senate in 2002 and was then president of the watchdog group Common Cause. But she has serious and potentially divisive opposition from Michael Brennan, another former state legislative leader; local district attorney Mark Lawrence, the party’s 2000 Senate candidate; state Sen. Ethan Strimling and lawyer Adam Cote. And GOP candidate Charlie Summers has drawn national attention by running from Iraq, where he’s a Naval Reserve public affairs officer.

MASSACHUSETTS 5 — Niki Tsongas , D

2007 special: Tsongas 51%, Jim Ogonowski (R) 45%

Tsongas won by a much narrower margin than her party expected last year, when fellow Democrat Martin T. Meehan resigned to head a state university campus. But Republicans’ hopes to make another run at the seat, in the northwest suburbs of Boston, depend on finding a candidate. (Ogonowski has decided instead to try to take on Sen. John Kerry .)

NEW HAMPSHIRE 2 — Paul W. Hodes , D

2006: Hodes 53%, Rep. Charles Bass (R) 46%

Demographics and a hard-fought GOP primary work in favor of the freshman. The state’s western half voted for Kerry by 5 points in 2004, and not until September will Republicans be choosing among lawyer Jim Steiner, state Sen. Bob Clegg, talk show host Jennifer Horn and former Senate aide Grant Bosse.

NEW YORK 24 — Michael Arcuri , D

2006: Arcuri 54%, Ray Meier (R) 45%

Republicans are struggling to secure a top-tier candidate to challenge Arcuri, a longtime prosecutor who won when this nominally Republican seat came open last time. The latest would-be recruit is businessman Richard Hanna.

PENNSYLVANIA 8 — Patrick J. Murphy , D

Election 2008: The Northeast: GOP Tries to Recoup

2006: Murphy 50%, Rep. Michael G. Fitzpatrick (R) 50%

The Iraq War will be front-and-center in this suburban Philadelphia district, where Murphy was elected in 2006 as the first veteran of that conflict to serve in Congress. His challenger is Tom Manion, a retired Marine Corps colonel whose son died in the war last year.

REPUBLICAN FAVORED

MARYLAND 1 — Open( Wayne T. Gilchrest , R, defeated in primary)

2006: Gilchrest 69%, Jim Corwin (D), 31%

The typically strong Republican leanings of this district benefit state Sen. Andy Harris, who bested Gilchrest by 10 points in the Feb. 12 primary. But that campaign roiled the local party, creating a slight opening for the Democratic nominee, local prosecutor Frank Kratovil Jr.

NEW JERSEY 5 — Scott Garrett , R

2006: Garrett 55%, Paul Aronsohn (D) 44%

Garrett was held to a career low in 2006 and faces a viable Democratic challenge now from Dennis Shulman, a rabbi and psychologist. Still, the territory across the state’s northern border has a solid GOP cast.

PENNSYLVANIA 15 — Charlie Dent , R

2006: Dent 54%, Charles Dertinger (D) 43%

Dent, part of the dwindling corps of GOP moderates, didn’t win his second term decisively, and the Lehigh Valley district splits nearly evenly between the parties in presidential voting. The Democrats have nominated Siobhan Bennett, a local party activist.

PENNSYLVANIA 18 — Tim Murphy , R

Election 2008: The Northeast: GOP Tries to Recoup

2006: Murphy 58%, Chad Kluko (D) 42%

Though Murphy coasted last time over a hapless opponent, his bid for a fourth term in the Pittsburgh suburbs should be more assertively challenged this time by Steve O’Donnell, who had a long career working with the mentally disabled and who later was a managing partner of a holding company.