CQ WEEKLY
– COVER STORY
April 27, 2008 – 4:14 p.m.
Election 2008: The Senate: More Open Seats Hurt GOP Chances
By CQ Staff
Even with their six-seat gain, the Democrats won only a razor-thin Senate majority in 2006 that left open the door for a possible GOP comeback in 2008.
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That door is now firmly closed, and the Democrats are well-positioned to expand their majority by picking up at least two and perhaps as many as eight seats. Public opinion on the issues — opposition to the Iraq War, annoyance at President Bush and anxiety about the economy — is as bad or worse for the GOP as it was two years ago. But the Republicans face an even bigger obstacle in the political geography: They are defending 23 seats, five of them opened by retirements; the Democrats are defending only 12, and incumbents are running again for all of them.
NO CLEAR FAVORITE
COLORADO — Open ( Wayne Allard , R, retiring)
Vote for winner in 2002: 51 percent
The presumed November matchup has been known for some time: Democratic Rep. Mark Udall , who has represented left-leaning Boulder for a decade, and Republican Bob Schaffer, a state board of education member who represented the eastern plains in the House from 1997 through 2002 and lost a primary for the state’s other Senate seat in 2004. Udall’s record is mostly liberal and Schaffer’s is mostly conservative, though both have shown some political independence. Udall has the edge in fundraising and name recognition. And the Denver Post recently reported that Schaffer took a trip arranged in part by the firm then employing Jack Abramoff, the lobbyist later convicted of corruption charges. The Republican campaign says the two have never met.
MINNESOTA — Norm Coleman , R
Vote for winner in 2002: 50 percent
The Democratic candidacy of comedian Al Franken guarantees attention, but the race’s decisive factor may be voters’ views of Coleman’s positions on President Bush and the Iraq War, both highly unpopular in the state. Coleman has worked to distance himself from Bush after gaining a reputation early in his term as an advocate for his agenda. He now criticizes Bush’s handling of the war but won’t endorse troop withdrawal timelines. Now that self-financing attorney Michael Ciresi has dropped out, Franken has his nomination sewn up, and his fundraising ($3.5 million in the bank as the month began) and grass-roots campaigning make him formidable. Coleman, though, will try to paint his opponent as an outside-the-mainstream liberal.
NEW HAMPSHIRE — John E. Sununu , R
Vote for winner in 2002: 51 percent
Jeanne Shaheen, who stayed popular through six years as governor, is back to try to avenge her loss to Sununu in 2002. He has been marked as perhaps the most vulnerable incumbent of the year, mainly due to a state political climate that enabled Democrats in 2006 to capture a majority in the state legislature and both the state’s House seats. Democrats are also capitalizing on anti-Bush sentiment by tying the incumbent to the president and casting Sununu as a strong partisan. Polls consistently show him trailing badly.
Election 2008: The Senate: More Open Seats Hurt GOP Chances
LEANS DEMOCRATIC
LOUISIANA — Mary L. Landrieu , D
Vote for winner in 2002: 52 percent
Landrieu is the sole Democratic senator this year who faces a competitive challenge from a Republican: state Treasurer John Kennedy, who was a Democrat until last year. Landrieu’s two Senate victories have been by slender margins, and she probably faces a ceiling of 55 percent of the vote in a state likely to back John McCain for president. But Landrieu has a mostly centrist voting record, and in a state that is still recovering from the devastating 2005 hurricane season, she’s promoting her seniority and brandishing the support of several Republican officials.
NEW MEXICO — Open ( Pete V. Domenici , R, retiring)
Vote for winner in 2002: 65 percent
The first open Senate seat in the state in 36 years is now tilting to the Democrats. The front-runner is Tom Udall of Sante Fe, a cousin of the Colorado Senate candidate and a congressman for the past decade. He has a clear lead in the current polling and $2.6 million in cash on hand. Meanwhile, the state’s two GOP House members, Heather A. Wilson of Albuquerque and Steve Pearce of Hobbs, are locked in a brutal battle for the party’s nomination in the June 3 primary. Still, Domenici’s sustained popularity and New Mexico’s swing-state status in the presidential race means the race is far from over.
LEANS REPUBLICAN
ALASKA — Ted Stevens , R
Vote for winner in 2002: 78 percent
A federal investigation into Stevens’ ties to Veco Corp., an oil services company accused of buying influence, threatens to make this the final term for the longest-serving GOP senator in American history, who at age 84 is the top Republican on the Commerce Committee and the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee. The scandal, which has led to the conviction of state officials and businessmen, allowed Democrats to recruit the challenger they wanted, Mayor Mark Begich of Anchorage. But Stevens’ undeniable reputation as an intensely forceful advocate for his state in Washington still makes unseating him a formidable challenge.
MAINE — Susan Collins , R
Vote for winner in 2002: 58 percent
Election 2008: The Senate: More Open Seats Hurt GOP Chances
Collins fits the GOP moderate profile that has long been popular in the state, enabling her to win two Senate terms. Nonetheless, Collins faces an intense and well-financed challenge by six-term Rep. Tom Allen , a staunch opponent of the Iraq War who portrays Collins as too middling on that issue and more affiliated with the Bush administration’s policies than her centrist persona suggests. Polls to date suggest Collins maintains an edge, and she had $4.5 million in cash on hand in March. But only one other challenger (Minnesota’s Al Franken) had more cash at that time than Allen’s $2.7 million.
OREGON — Gordon H. Smith , R
Vote for winner in 2002: 56 percent
The moderate voting record Smith has cultivated — he broke with Bush on the Iraq War and voted against the president’s wishes more than any other GOP senator last year — could enable him to win his third-term campaign with some Democratic and independent supporters. But Democrat Jeff Merkley, the state House Speaker, has the legislative experience that his party’s leaders believe could help spur him to victory. Before that, Merkley faces a spirited May 20 primary contest against liberal activist Steve Novick.
DEMOCRAT FAVORED
NEW JERSEY — Frank R. Lautenberg , D
Vote for winner in 2002: 54 percent
Lautenberg is well-known, well-funded and has a long history in New Jersey, all of which make him favored to win an extension of his return Senate engagement this fall at age 84. (He initially retired in 2000 after three terms.) But all that didn’t stop Rep. Robert E. Andrews of South Jersey from shocking the state’s political establishment this month when he decided to act on his long-pent-up statewide aspirations and challenge Lautenberg in the June 3 primary. On the Republican side, businessman Andrew Unanue withdrew from the race and arranged for former Rep. Dick Zimmer to become the presumed nominee.
VIRGINIA — Open ( John W. Warner , R, retiring)
Vote for winner in 2002: 83 percent
The race to succeed Warner, who is retiring after 30 years, is becoming pretty close to a shoo-in for Democrat Mark Warner, a popular governor from 2002 through 2005 who for a time wanted instead to become president this year. His strong approval ratings and $4.4 million war chest mean he may not have to tap the fortune he made in telecommunications. And his path to the Senate has been made even easier by a tough GOP nomination fight between James S. Gilmore III, another former governor and one-time 2008 presidential aspirant, and state Rep. Bob Marshall, a vigorous abortion opponent. The party will pick one of them at a convention in a month.
REPUBLICAN FAVORED
ALABAMA — Jeff Sessions , R
Election 2008: The Senate: More Open Seats Hurt GOP Chances
Vote for winner in 2002: 59 percent
Sessions is bolstered in his third-term bid in this solidly Republican state by a strongly conservative voting record and a $4 million war chest as of March 31. The Democratic challenger is Vivian Davis Figures, a longtime state senator who is much more liberal than her state.
GEORGIA — Saxby Chambliss , R
Vote for winner in 2002: 53 percent
The Democrats hoping to win the July 15 primary and challenge Chambliss’ bid for a second term include Jim Martin, a former state representative and the 2006 nominee for lieutenant governor; DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones and former TV reporter Dale Cardwell. Democrats would love to oust Chambliss, whose negative 2002 campaign against incumbent Max Cleland still makes them furious. But the incumbent has $3.6 million in the bank, no primary competition and a strong network of support in the Republican-leaning state.
KANSAS — Pat Roberts , R
Vote for winner in 2002: 83 percent
Roberts was popular enough that he won his current term without a Democratic opponent, and it initially appeared he would have only nominal opposition in his bid for a third term. But that changed last month with the unexpected comeback candidacy of Democrat Jim Slattery, who was viewed as a rising star in the party during six terms in the House but then gambled — and lost big — as the gubernatorial candidate in the party’s 1994 blowout year. It’s too early to tell whether Slattery will be able to raise the money needed to compete seriously.
KENTUCKY — Mitch McConnell , R
Vote for winner in 2002: 65 percent
Democrats are hoping to apply the “obstructionist” label to the GOP minority leader in much the same way the Republicans applied it four years ago, when it helped defeat Democratic Minority Leader Tom Daschle in South Dakota. By this month, McConnell had banked $7.7 million and has already aired television spots touting his 24 years of service to Kentucky. The leading candidates in the May 20 Democratic primary are a pair of wealthy businessmen, Bruce Lunsford and Greg Fischer.
MISSISSIPPI (partial term) — Roger Wicker , R
Vote for winner in 2006: 64 percent
Election 2008: The Senate: More Open Seats Hurt GOP Chances
Trent Lott’s decision to quit a year into his fourth term to become a lobbyist has put one of the state’s Senate seats in partisan play for the first time in two decades. Republicans, who dominate state politics, have a strong candidate in Roger Wicker , the seventh-term congressman appointed in December as Lott’s temporary successor until a Nov. 4 special election. But Democratic challenger Ronnie Musgrove, the governor from 2000 through 2003, brings superior statewide name recognition to the race.
NEBRASKA — Open ( Chuck Hagel , R, retiring)
Vote for winner in 2002: 83 percent
Hagel’s departure after two terms would have been a genuine GOP setback had former Democratic Sen. Bob Kerrey decided to mount a comeback. When that didn’t happen, the clear front-runner became Mike Johanns, the popular Republican governor from 1999 until Bush tapped him as Agriculture secretary in 2005. Johanns has $1.3 million ready to spend after the May 13 primary, when Democrats will pick either businessman Tony Raimondo, a recent convert from the GOP, or Yale-educated rancher Scott Kleeb, who ran a competitive race for an open House seat in the state’s rural western reaches two years ago.
NORTH CAROLINA — Elizabeth Dole , R
Vote for winner in 2002: 54 percent
State Sen. Kay Hagan is the most powerful and best-known Democrat seeking to deny Dole’s bid for a second term, but she still has to win a crowded May 6 primary that includes wealthy businessman Jim Neal. Democrats say Dole should be vulnerable because of her ties to Bush, her support for the war and the amount of time they say she spends looking out for special interests, but her approval ratings continue to look solid.
OKLAHOMA — James M. Inhofe , R
Vote for winner in 2002: 57 percent
Democrats, who got their desired recruit in state Sen. Andrew Rice, say Inhofe has fallen out of favor with voters because of his strongly conservative and partisan rhetoric. Inhofe gained national attention (and some ridicule) with his declaration that global warming is “the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people.” In the campaign, he’s not shying away from his reputation, arguing he has the “A-courage” to stand up for his beliefs in Congress. Though Rice has displayed some fundraising ability, Inhofe has much more in the bank; the state is clearly right-leaning; Bush carried it by nearly 2-to-1 four years ago.
TENNESSEE — Lamar Alexander , R
Vote for winner in 2002: 54 percent
Multiple Democrats are competing to take on A-Alexander as he vies for a second term, including A-former state party Chairman Bob Tuke and former Knox County Clerk Mike Padgett. Democrats argue their party is making a comeback after years of A-setbacks but they face an uphill battle against Alexander, a former governor, Education secretary and presidential hopeful who was elected in December to the No. 3 job in the Senate GOP hierarchy.
Election 2008: The Senate: More Open Seats Hurt GOP Chances
TEXAS — John Cornyn , R
Vote for winner in 2002: 55 percent
Lloyd Bentsen was the last Democrat to win a Senate election in Texas — in 1988, when he won his fourth and final term. Still, Democrats are testing the limits of Republicanism in President Bush’s home state by putting up state Rep. Rick Noriega of Houston, an Army veteran who served in Afghanistan. Cornyn has been among the administration’s most loyal backers in the Senate and has promoted confirming conservatives for the federal bench. He doesn’t have the best approval ratings, but he does have $8.7 million on hand.
SAFE DEMOCRATIC
ARKANSAS — Mark Pryor , D
Vote for winner in 2002: 54 percent
Pryor’s moderate positions, famous family name and strong fundraising made him a lopsided favorite for a second term even before GOP recruiting efforts came up completely empty-handed.
DELAWARE — Joseph R. Biden Jr. , D
Vote for winner in 2002: 58 percent
Biden’s poor showing in the Democratic presidential race won’t hamper his quest for a seventh term.
ILLINOIS — Richard J. Durbin , D
Vote for winner in 2002: 60 percent
The majority whip is a shoo-in for a third term against Republican Steve Sauerberg, even though the physician has put in $1.3 million of his own money.
Election 2008: The Senate: More Open Seats Hurt GOP Chances
IOWA — Tom Harkin , D
Vote for winner in 2002: 54 percent
After a string of competitive contests, the populist Agriculture Committee chairman has only token GOP opposition for a fifth term.
MASSACHUSETTS — John Kerry , D
Vote for winner in 2002: 80 percent
Some constituents still grumble that he fumbled his 2004 presidential bid, but the state’s still a Democratic redoubt and Kerry had $9.3 million in the bank this month, more than any other Senate incumbent. A three-way GOP primary is in the offing in the fall.
MICHIGAN — Carl Levin , D
Vote for winner in 2002: 61 percent
With $4.2 million in cash on hand and his position as chairman of the Armed Services Committee, Levin essentially has a free pass for a sixth term.
MONTANA — Max Baucus , D
Vote for winner in 2002: 63 percent
The GOP was unable to find a top-tier challenger, and the Finance Committee chairman has $6.4 million to spend campaigning for a sixth term in this sparsely populated (and generally Republican) state.
RHODE ISLAND — Jack Reed , D
Election 2008: The Senate: More Open Seats Hurt GOP Chances
Vote for winner in 2002: 78 percent
Reed is a popular Democrat in a strongly Democratic state; he has $3.4 million in his campaign treasury, and the Republicans haven’t yet recruited a challenger.
SOUTH DAKOTA — Tim Johnson , D
Vote for winner in 2002: 50 percent
The winner last time by just 524 votes, Johnson was once among the few vulnerable Senate Democrats of 2008. Having survived a near-fatal brain hemorrhage and returned to work last fall, he’s now invincible for a third term.
WEST VIRGINIA — John D. Rockefeller IV , D
Vote for winner in 2002: 63 percent
Though a quarter-century junior to colleague Robert C. Byrd , Rockefeller has done plenty for the state over the past 24 years. GOP candidate Jay Wolfe ran in 2002 and lost badly.
SAFE REPUBLICAN
IDAHO — Open ( Larry E. Craig , R, retiring)
Vote for winner in 2002: 65 percent
Scandal can ruin not only a lawmaker but also his party’s chances for holding a seat. Not so in this conservative state, where Craig is retiring after pleading guilty last summer in an airport men’s room sting operation. Along with the solid advantage the GOP typically enjoys, it has a top-flight candidate in Lt. Gov. Jim Risch (the likely appointee had Craig made good on his initial plan to resign). The Democratic aspirant is former Rep. Larry LaRocco.
MISSISSIPPI (full term) — Thad Cochran , R
Election 2008: The Senate: More Open Seats Hurt GOP Chances
Vote for winner in 2002: 85 percent
Earmarking isn’t a dirty word in the state, and Cochran has become a master while rising over 30 years to become the No. 1 Republican on the A-Appropriations Committee. The Democratic challenger is former state Rep. Erik Fleming, who took just 35 percent against Trent Lott two years ago.
SOUTH CAROLINA — Lindsey Graham , R
Vote for winner in 2002: 54 percent
Orthodontist Buddy Witherspoon is challenging from the right in the June 10 GOP primary, but neither he nor the two possible Democratic challengers has the wherewithal to deny Graham’s bid for a second term in this incumbent-friendly state.
WYOMING (full term) — Michael B. Enzi , R
Vote for winner in 2002: 73 percent
Enzi was planning to announce over the weekend whether he’ll seek a third term. Even if he joins the ranks of the GOP retirees, the party should have minimal trouble holding the seat in one of the nation’s most conservative states.
WYOMING (partial term) — John Barrasso , R
Vote for winner in 2006: 70 percent
Appointed last June after Republican Craig Thomas died, Barrasso has since banked $1.1 million and has drawn no viable opponent.
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