By Greg Giroux, CQ Staff

In early January, Barack Obama kicked off his successful drive to the Democratic presidential nomination with a needed win in the Iowa precinct caucuses. Now he’s driving for a bookend November win in this key battleground state. Obama and his allies view the contest for its seven electoral votes with a sense of opportunity and risk. Iowa joined New Mexico as only two states that voted for President Bush in 2004 after favoring Al Gore four years earlier, backing Bush over John Kerry by a thin seven-tenths of a percentage point.

Public opinion has turned strongly against Bush since then, boosting Democrats’ hopes of returning the state to their column, where they had prevailed in the four elections from 1988 through 2000. “We think that, right now, Iowa is a very strong pickup for us, and that’s important,” Obama campaign manager David Plouffe told reporters in late June, calculating that adding Iowa’s electoral votes to the 252 that Kerry captured means “we’re sitting at 259” — just 11 short of the needed majority.

Nonpartisan analysts say Obama begins the fall campaign with at least a slight edge in the state, in part because he spent many months in the run-up to the Iowa caucuses assembling a formidable get-out-the-vote organization. A record-setting 240,000 Iowans participated in the party’s caucuses, about twice the turnout for the Republican caucuses held the same night.

The presidential election will dominate the fall campaign season in the state, where no changes in the congressional delegation are expected for the 111th Congress.

Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin , chairman of the Agriculture Committee, is a shoo-in in his bid for a fifth term. A staunch liberal who has cultivated his image as a populist, Harkin’s history is one of relatively close elections for a long-serving senator, and he prevailed over Republican Rep. Greg Ganske in 2002 with a 10-point victory margin. Even so, well-known Iowa Republicans — including both GOP House members, Tom Latham and Steve King — sat out this year’s Senate race. And Harkin should have no trouble defeating Republican Christopher Reed, a little-known businessman who didn’t even organize a campaign fundraising committee with the Federal Election Commission until early May.

All three of Democratic House members will almost certainly be returning — including freshmen Bruce Braley of the 1st District, which includes Davenport and Dubuque, and Dave Loebsack of the 2nd District, which takes in Cedar Rapids and the academic community in and around the University of Iowa in Iowa City.

Braley was easily elected in 2006 to succeed eight-term Rep. Jim Nussle, who was the losing Republican nominee for governor that year. Braley is heavily favored over GOP state Sen. David Hartsuch, who entered the race late and has raised little money.

Loebsack was one of the biggest upset winners of 2006 when he unseated 15-term Rep. Jim Leach, whose image as a Republican progressive enabled him to hold on to an otherwise Democratic-leaning district. Loebsack has a strong advantage against his Republican challenger, ophthalmologist Mariannette Miller-Meeks.

The Iowa Democratic House trio is rounded out by six-term Rep. Leonard L. Boswell of the 3rd District, which takes in Des Moines. Boswell was a rare Democratic incumbent who faced a serious challenge in 2006, but he is strongly favored this time against Republican Kim Schmett, a former chief of staff to Ganske.