CQ WEEKLY
– IN FOCUS
Aug. 21, 2008 – 3:29 p.m.
Democratic State of the States 2008: Washington
By Rachel Kapochunas, CQ Staff
The large number of affluent, technologically savvy young voters who reside in Washington state translates into favorable territory for Barack Obama , who did well among that demographic. He trounced Hillary Rodham Clinton with 68 percent support in the Feb. 9 party caucuses, although a non-binding “beauty contest” primary held in the state 10 days later produced a closer outcome in his favor, 51 percent to 46 percent .
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Obama’s personal strength is complemented by the Democratic trend in what had long been a partisan swing state. Democratic presidential nominees have carried the state five times in a row — President Ronald Reagan in his 1984 landslide was the last Republican winner — and George W. Bush twice lost the state by sound if not overwhelming margins of 6 percentage points in 2000 and 7 points in 2004. Democrats today hold the governor’s office, both Senate seats, six of the nine House seats and sizable majorities in both state legislative chambers.
Obama appeared to be in a stronger position among Democratic activists than did McCain among his party’s ranks following the state’s nominating process. “It will be a little bit more difficult for McCain to consolidate the Republican base here in Washington state then it will be for Obama to consolidate those Clinton supporters,” said Matt A. Barreto, a political scientist at the University of Washington and co-director of The Washington Poll. Obama held an early lead in the state’s general-election polls, in part because of strong support from independents, Barreto said. Voters do not register by party in Washington, but self-identified independents make up the largest group of voters in the electorate, he said.
The same factors that give an edge to Obama also help Gov. Christine Gregoire as she seeks a second term. If she is re-elected, that will extend the Democrats’ success streak for that office to seven races dating to 1984. However, given that Gregoire won the governorship in a historically close and controversial 2004 outcome — and faces a rematch this year with Republican Dino Rossi, a former state senator — she can hardly take winning for granted.
Gregoire’s margin was a bare one-hundredth of 1 percentage point — just 129 votes out of more than 2.8 million cast — a result that came after a protracted series of recounts that overrode an initial canvass that showed Rossi with a tiny lead. Republicans unsuccessfully protested the results in court and continue to hold animosity toward Gregoire. But Gregoire has made few missteps in her first term that Republicans will be able to use to attack her. “Against the backdrop of Obama being incredibly popular,” Gregoire has an edge heading into November, Barreto said.
The state’s Democratic strength may also benefit former Microsoft Corp. manager Darcy Burner, who is pursuing a rematch of the close race she ran against Republican Rep. Dave Reichert in her 2006 political debut. Burner lost to Reichert, whose district includes the well-to-do eastern Seattle suburbs, by 3 points at a time when anti-war and anti-Bush sentiment hindered the GOP incumbent.
Even Democratic strategists such as Cathy Allen say the race could go either way, as Reichert, the former King County sheriff who oversaw the capture of “Green River” serial killer Gary Ridgway, remains popular. The area is the “ground zero” battleground district in the state, according to Allen, who said an expected surge in turnout for Obama “gives us a Democratic edge on these close races” this year.




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