CQ WEEKLY
– IN FOCUS
March 7, 2009 – 2:15 p.m.
Democrats Lean Heavily on Big Freshman Class
By Alan K. Ota, CQ Staff
Mark Udall of Colorado spent a decade in the House slowly inching up the House leadership ladder. Now, just nine weeks into his Senate career, he’s working from a post where he can influence his party’s agenda on Capitol Hill. As a newly minted deputy whip, Udall is charged with building close ties between Democratic leaders and a gaggle of senators just like him — the freshmen who will be crucial to so much of President Obama’s legislative success.
In the session’s first two months, Udall has helped align every one of the 11 new Democrats behind two of the first big-ticket items on Obama’s agenda: the $787 billion economic stimulus package and the expansion of the State Children’s Health Insurance Program. But bigger challenges loom that might divide the newcomers from many members of their caucus, ranging from the president’s request for a $3.55 trillion budget for fiscal 2010 to his ideas for overhauling health care and energy policy.
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The Senate Democratic Class of 2008 already ranks as one of the biggest groups of majority party newcomers in modern times. This year, the seven Democrats who were elected for the first time last fall have been joined by four people appointed to succeed senators who left for the Obama administration (the president among them) — and the group may yet grow to a dozen if Al Franken ends up prevailing in Minnesota. (By contrast, there are just two GOP freshmen: Idaho’s Jim Risch and Nebraska’s Mike Johanns .)
Udall’s boss, Majority Whip Richard J. Durbin of Illinois, and other senior Democrats want to galvanize a firewall of freshman support behind Obama’s legislative initiatives, in much the same way that Democratic Senate leaders tapped the class of 16 Democrats first elected alongside Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932 to be partners in the early days of the New Deal. But in trying to keep the newcomers in the party’s corner, Udall and other leaders have to perform a delicate balancing act.
Only one freshman Democrat — Mark Begich of Alaska — comes from a “red” state that voted for Republican John McCain for president in November, but five others represent states that George W. Bush carried four years before. As a consequence, party leaders need to allow the freshmen to deliver on campaign promises to develop pragmatic, bipartisan compromises, while pressuring them to hold firm against heavy GOP opposition on the most contentious issues.
It can be a perilous political calculation. For example, in 1980 Ronald Reagan came to Washington with a mammoth class of 16 Senate Republican freshmen. That group helped to enact such sweeping measures as the 1981 tax cuts and the 1983 Social Security overhaul. Six years later, Democrats focused voter attention on a sluggish U.S. economy and cuts in domestic programs, and they ousted six first-term GOP senators to win back control of the Senate. (Altogether, there were 10 Democratic freshmen elected that year, a record roster for the party not exceeded until this year.)
With such past dramatic reversals of fortune in mind, Udall said he and his fellow freshmen feel compelled to carve out nuanced, independent records that will appeal to voters when they run for re-election themselves in 2014 — without the benefit of any presidential coattails, because Obama will have either won or lost re-election two years before.
‘A Sense of Urgency’
So far, the Democratic newbies have seemed willing to fall in line on most showdown votes, mindful that Senate rules require a majority of 60 to break a filibuster and thereby advance legislation that has proved ideologically divisive. Most Democrats have voted against most Republicans on 72 of the 85 roll call votes held so far this year — and none of the 11 Democrats voted against the caucus majority on more than a handful of occasions.
“The freshmen want to get things done,” Udall said. “We share a sense of urgency with President Obama.”
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Still, the pressure to conform might wear on newly elected Democrats in coming months.
Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, the chairman of the Senate Republican Conference, portrays Udall and other newcomers as Obama foot soldiers who will be vulnerable when they run for re-election. “They got here because they ran centrist campaigns and agreed to work across party lines. But now they’re lining up to vote for big spending bills,’’ he said.
Among those who agree is John Cornyn of Texas, who as chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee is dreaming of a rebound like the one the Democrats pulled off a quarter-century ago. “They won’t be here for long if they continue to do that,” Cornyn said.
Several of the more cautious and vulnerable freshmen have been looking to find political cover in middle-ground positions, even as they cast votes in support of the caucus.
The stimulus measure showed how alert they are to opportunities to showcase their centrist instincts. Two dependably moderate incumbents, Democrat Ben Nelson of Nebraska and Republican Susan Collins of Maine, balked at the initially proposed cost of the measure. And a half-dozen Democratic freshmen joined in their campaign to shrink the bill: Udall, Begich, Michael Bennet of Colorado, Kay Hagan of North Carolina, Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire and Mark Warner of Virginia. When Nelson and Collins brokered a deal to reduce the bill’s cost by $108 billion, every Senate Democrat fell in line with the proposal.
An independent posture is one that should be familiar to the new president, since he gravitated in that direction during his four years representing Illinois in the Senate. In the previous Congress, Obama backed President Bush’s electronic surveillance overhaul and at the same time courted the rancor of some old Senate hands by calling for increased disclosure of earmarks and tougher restrictions on lobbying. He also gave his presidential campaign a boost by pointing to such high-profile positions as evidence of his own bipartisan and independent approach to legislating.
And the White House so far seems content to give the freshmen latitude. Indeed, Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. invited them to his new home on the grounds of the Naval Observatory last month to encourage them to be bold and not to worry too much about the old be-seen-not-heard advice that veteran senators once gave to newcomers. And White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel promised an ongoing series of talks with Senate freshmen after their first meeting, in early February.
Of course, the practical thrust of Biden’s advice and Emanuel’s overture is to coax the more centrist members of the class into a bolder embrace of big-spending measures such as the stimulus — or, looking ahead, the proposed health care overhaul and the debates over energy policy and climate change — that could create political trouble for them among fiscally conservative supporters back home.
And the freshmen certainly know why they’re being wooed. “We’re pro-Obama, but that doesn’t mean we will always agree,” said Begich. “I’m going to be with him on some things. I’m not going to be with him on other things.”
Mindful of the risks involved in a strategy of pushing freshman centrists outside their ideological comfort zones, Durbin has opened his office on the third floor of the Capitol to private consultations to stave off defections.
He has also reminded the White House that it needs to step up its outreach to freshmen on make-or-break measures. To make such appeals work requires patience, said Durbin, one of the president’s closest confidants at the Capitol. “You sit down and explain the issue, and then measure the politics from their side and our side,” he said. “As long as you’re fair with them, and don’t push them places they can’t go, you develop a good relationship.”
Less Tough TARP Talk
Such efforts paid off when Durbin and Obama aides persuaded several of the freshmen to temper their criticism of the $700 billion financial rescue bill that was enacted last fall and faced a tough Senate vote in mid-January to release the second half of the money.
Udall had voted against the measure in the House, and the issue had been raised in several hard-fought Senate campaigns last fall. For example, third-party ads attacking lawmakers who voted for the original bailout measure had helped Jeff Merkely, speaker of the Oregon House, defeat Republican incumbent Gordon H. Smith.
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To tamp down the restive mood among the Democratic freshmen, Obama dispatched Lawrence H. Summers , whom he had tapped to be chairman of the National Economic Council, to make a case for the additional money at a meeting in early January with a half-dozen freshmen in Durbin’s office. Several of them, including Merkley and Begich, urged tougher oversight for the program and argued for allocating some of the money to homeowners facing foreclosure.
Two days later, Summers sent a letter to Congress explaining that Obama would set aside a portion of the Troubled Asset Relief Program to prevent foreclosures, stemming a centrist revolt. In the end, Shaheen was the only freshman Democrat to vote for a GOP-sponsored resolution to block the second installment of TARP money.
Udall concedes that as the White House pursues its domestic agenda, it will be harder to contain future revolts in the freshman ranks. That’s particularly true for Obama’s top priorities: his fiscal 2010 budget blueprint; a cap-and-trade system to limit carbon emissions; and health care overhaul. “These are big issues, no question,” Udall said. “We’re going to have to see the details of some of these proposals before we make decisions.”
With an eye toward these coming showdowns, Majority Leader Harry Reid and his leadership team have made a point of supplying sweeteners to their caucus’s freshmen. Durbin selected Udall and Hagan to serve as deputy whips. And two newcomers got gavels: Udall replaced Daniel K. Akaka of Hawaii as chairman of the Energy and Natural Resources Subcommittee on National Parks, and Shaheen succeeded Obama as chairwoman of the Foreign Relations Subcommittee on European Affairs.
In addition to such perquisites, Robert Menendez of New Jersey, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, promised to help the two newcomers who were tapped to succeed senators who took seats in the Obama Cabinet — and hope to win election in their own right next year.
“Everyone who’s in cycle should be given their priorities,” Menendez said, referring to Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, who replaced Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton , and Bennet, who replaced Interior Secretary Ken Salazar .
Pointedly not on Menendez’s list is another freshman appointee, Roland W. Burris of Illinois, Obama’s successor. Even if Burris emerges minimally tarnished by a Senate Ethics Committee inquiry into the circumstances surrounding his appointment, the sordid circumstances connecting him to Rod R. Blagojevich , who’s since been removed as governor, make Burris’ prospects for even winning the Democratic nomination next year look like a long shot. (The fourth appointee, Biden successor Ted Kaufman of Delaware, has already said he’s on the job for just two years.)
As for those freshmen who will be up for re-election in 2014, Menendez said they should expect to do some heavy lifting. “They will have six years to establish themselves and explain where they stand on issues,” he said.
For their part, Republicans such as Alexander are looking for issues where they can peel away support from freshmen Democrats. In particular, Alexander said he hopes some of them will support increased money for charter schools and a bipartisan commission that would propose ways to curtail the costs of such entitlements as Medicare and Medicaid. “We’re hoping that over time, the freshmen will be more inclined to break ranks and join us on some things,” Alexander said.
Durbin contends that the freshmen can stand behind the White House’s agenda as long as Obama enjoys strong public approval ratings. “They were elected with Obama, and they understand that the American people have an idea that we’re going to follow the president and get some things done for the country,” he said. “As the president’s numbers go up, the public opinion of Democrats in Congress goes up as well.”
FOR FURTHER READING: Health care, p. 524; Burris, CQ Weekly, p. 491; Obama’s budget, p. 471; TARP II funds, p. 404; stimulus law (PL 111-5), p. 352; SCHIP law (PL 111-3), p. 309; Senate moderates, p. 392, 2008 CQ Weekly, p. 2044; Durbin and Obama, p. 2052.




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