CQ WEEKLY
July 11, 2009 – 11:19 a.m.
Political Economy: Poll Positions
By John Cranford, CQ Columnist
It’s possible to conclude from recent public opinion surveys that the Republicans are scoring points with their attacks on President Obama and congressional Democrats for failing to fix the economy already.
No one should blame the GOP for its tactics. From the minute that Democrats in Congress used their superior numbers to pass the $787 billion economic stimulus package in February, Republicans have been hammering away that it was a wasteful, misdirected mess. They had no choice. Only three GOP lawmakers voted for the measure — it was against their ideological principles to use government spending to give the economy a boost, and it was against their political principles to assist the Democrats.
It was in the minority’s interest to set up Obama and the majority for a fall. And the Democrats, naturally, have played right into the Republican’s hands.
If anything, the two parties are equally at fault for whipsawing the public. What we’re seeing is a clear case of the disingenuous nature of modern American politics. None can dare speak the truth for fear that their words will be used against them.
That’s why we have Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. telling ABC’s George Stephanopoulos with a straight face a week ago that “we and everyone else misread the economy.”
And we have House Minority Leader John A. Boehner last week jabbing at Biden, who was at that moment in Boehner’s home state of Ohio parrying the GOP’s thrust. “The administration promised the stimulus would keep unemployment below 8 percent, and they promised the stimulus would create jobs immediately,” Boehner crowed. “It’s pretty clear now that the administration was wrong.”
Well, no, at least not in the way Boehner means it. Biden is wrong to say that everyone misread the economy, although he’s just scrambling to regain the high ground. In January, the evidence of how deep the recession would get was much less clear than it is today. The White House, the Federal Reserve, the Congressional Budget Office and the consensus private forecast from Blue Chip Economic Indicators all were more optimistic at the beginning of the year than they are today, particularly about the jobless rate.
But the fact that few economists were predicting outright that unemployment would threaten to reach 10 percent by the end of this year doesn’t mean they weren’t fearful of that prospect. Boehner is just selectively amplifying the overstated hopes for an immediate boost from the tax cuts and spending increases from the stimulus law. The administration never really promised it would turn things around overnight — although it’s possible to see how official comments left that impression. And the stimulus hasn’t failed, at least not yet.
Most economists (maybe with the exception of Paul Krugman) think that the stimulative effects of fiscal policy are naturally slow to be realized, and it’s premature to declare defeat. Moreover, the administration never intended to dump the full $787 billion into the economy at once, choosing to spread out the benefits because of the potential for job losses to stretch well into 2010 — and plausibly because it’s an election year. So, Biden was right when he chided critics for expecting too much because the stimulus money had been available for only about four months.
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Feeling the Squeeze
Still, it’s amusing that Boehner and the Republicans have been able to pinch the Democrats between concerns that the stimulus isn’t working because it was the wrong thing to do and fears that it isn’t working because it was too puny.
That pushed House Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer of Maryland to flail around last week and talk about the possibility for yet another stimulus bill. What was House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to do other than to walk her party back from that ledge? “I’m committed to the first stimulus, and to giving it time to work,” she said, refusing to promise an extra dose of spending or to give the public further reasons to think her party isn’t up to the challenge.
The risk to Obama and the Democrats at this point is just that. Various polls show the economy is still at the top of the public’s list of concerns. And support for the president’s economic policies seems to be weakening a bit. While it’s still well above 50 percent in most surveys, it had been above 60 percent in some.
For the Democrats on Capitol Hill, the picture is less positive. For a brief time, Americans said the majority party was doing well enough. No longer. It’s back to the days when more people disapprove than approve of the way the Democrats are performing. Republicans may be getting through with their drumbeat of complaints that the economic situation — inherited or not — is now the responsibility of the incumbent party and president.
There’s just one thing: The public’s view of the GOP’s performance is even more dismissive. Surveys that ask who’s likely to do a better job with the economy invariably pick Obama over the Republicans by a wide margin. If Boehner and his colleagues are persuading the public that Washington is coming up short, it looks as if they may be tarring themselves with the same brush.
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Comments
In regard to the stimulus investment, my understanding is as follows: 1. The current surging fuel cost (World oil prices doubled during the last 6 months) is overwhelming the market rally. And the pending clean energy bill might serve as a second stimulus package world-wide boosting private investments. 2. People are so worried about losing their job, coverage, denial of treatment, which seems to increase bank deposit latetly. That means stimulus funding mainly goes toward bank deposit for a rainy day increasing jobless rate. It proves again that a healthy society yields better productivity, prosperity. It is time to 'Change' the notion of the public health as a fundamental human right and install 'a safety system for all' like all of the other industrialized nations, I think. 3. The stimulus funding begins to mobilize just 11%, meanwhile, the auto industry has undergone its restructuring with the massive job-related impact. 4. The pandemic swine flu has been hurting the global economy seriously. Thank You !
Actually sir, obama DID promise this would work! There are quotes all over the internet of he, and his cohorts, claiming this would work within weeks to months! There were "shovel ready jobs" just waiting to be funded, blah blah blah! He LIED! He used a chicken little, small minded method of debate instead of HONESTLY confronting the public! For this, he IS paying for it and he should! In regards to the statement from the commenter that oil prices are overwhelming the markets, thats simply ridiculous! The stock mkt pundits claimed rising oil meant the world economies were "coming back!", "obama has saved us!", etc etc. So you cant have it both ways! Oil was really low and was bound to have a bear market rally, just like the stock market. In fact many people dont know who is leading who higher, in terms of oil & stocks, and who will lead who lower!
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