By Rachel Kapochunas, CQ Staff

The conservative leanings and usual Republican voting tendencies in northern Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District would appear to give a strong advantage to front-running GOP candidate Greg Davis in his bid for Congress.

Yet Democrats insist that divisions within the district’s Republican ranks that surfaced during a recent primary campaign — and the emergence of Travis Childers, a local official with a conservative profile, as the leading Democratic candidate — gives them a shot at the seat that seven-term Republican incumbent Roger Wicker vacated in December after his appointment to the U.S. Senate.

Some Mississippi political analysts say the Democrats’ optimism may not be misplaced. “I even get some raised eyebrows around here when I say a Democrat can win in the 1st District,” said Marty Wiseman, a well-known authority on Mississippi politics who directs the John C. Stennis Institute of Government at Mississippi State University. “But it’s not unreasonable to say it’s too close to call.”

CQ Politics is changing its rating of the race to Leans Republican from Safe Republican. The new rating reflects the competitive nature of the race, but identifies Davis as the candidate who holds an edge.

Davis — whose hometown of Southaven, where he is mayor, is the district’s second-largest city — already cinched the Republican nomination for the November general election in an April 1 primary runoff. That contest was marked by a combative campaign between Davis and former Tupelo Mayor Glenn L. McCullough Jr., who also formerly headed the Tennessee Valley Authority. Childers, the chancery clerk for Prentiss County near the state’s northeastern corner, won a less combative Democratic primary for the November general election.

But one of the two likely will not have to wait until November to win a seat in Congress. Wicker’s seat, which he vacated when Republican Trent Lott resigned from the Senate and Wicker succeeded him, will be filled in a special election April 22. As victors in the regularly scheduled party primaries, Davis and Childers have moved to the head of the six-candidate field for the special election in which all will appear on a single ballot with no indication of party affiliation. A candidate would be elected outright on that date if he receives a majority of all votes; if that does not occur, a runoff will be held May 13 between the top two vote-getters, regardless of party.

Wicker almost certainly would have been a shoo-in had he sought re-election to the House this year. He took 66 percent of the vote in his 2006 House finale in a district where 62 percent of the voters supported the re-election of President Bush in 2004. Conservatism in general reigns supreme, and Republican candidate Davis drew wide support in the recent primary campaign for championing his conservative ideas on both fiscal and social issues, as well as for his mayoral record, which included establishing a tax rebate to city residents.

But Democrats say the 1st District’s days as a traditional Southern stronghold — dominated for more than 53 years by conservative Democrat Jamie L. Whitten, the longtime Appropriations Committee chairman who was Wicker’s predecessor — are not that distant a memory. They note that a resilient party infrastructure has enabled their party to hold on to most local offices even as their grip has slipped in federal and statewide elections.

“Eighty percent of local officials in the district are Democrats,” said Childers campaign manager Joel Coon, adding that his candidate has received strong support from a number of his fellow county chancery clerks — whose positions entail broad administrative responsibilities in their home counties — and what he called the “courthouse crowd” that includes circuit clerks in multiple counties.

Democratic activists seeking signs of hope for a 1st District takeover bid can look to the 4th at the southern end of the state. That district typically votes even more Republican for president, giving Bush 68 percent in 2004. But Gene Taylor , a conservative Democrat, has never faced a serious election challenge during more than 18 years in Congress. In 2004, Taylor took 64 percent to keep the seat in Democratic hands -- then bumped up to 80 percent when he won re-election in 2006.

Childers positions himself as a conservative Democrat and rejects an accusation lobbed by Republicans that he would “become a liberal” if he goes to Washington. Childers lists fiscal responsibility, fair trade deals, health care and increasing local economic growth among his top priority issues.

Democrats say Childers possesses wide multi-county support, which combined with his fundraising ability makes him a more desirable candidate than past 1st District Democratic challengers. The 2006 Democratic nominee, political consultant James K. “Ken” Hurt, spent just $16,000 on his 2006 campaign yet captured 34 percent of the vote. Childers already raised $206,000 as of his March 12 pre-runoff report to the Federal Election Commission.

“Two years ago, at best, Congressman Wicker had token opposition and this individual got 34 percent of the votes against a popular incumbent congressman who is well-respected in the district,” Democratic state Sen. Hob Bryan, a Childers supporter, told CQ Politics. “It is a completely different situation now . . . there’s no comparison.”