By CQ Staff

A series of recent state polls around the country confirm earlier forecasts about the uphill challenge faced this year by Republicans in trying to hold their ground in the Senate, or even staving off new Democratic gains.

Republicans are defending 23 seats this year with five of them open due to retirements while Democrats are defending only 12, all filled by incumbents. That was the basis of a CQ Politics forecast in April that Democrats were well-positioned to add two and possibly as many as eight seats to their 51 to 49 working majority (including independents Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut and Bernard Sanders of Vermont).

Surveys in the last few weeks found Republican incumbents teetering near or below 50 percent in the polls, or actually running behind Democratic challengers. In two states where seats were left open by retiring Republicans, the Democratic candidates were running ahead.

• Kentucky: Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford, a Louisville businessman, is leading incumbent Sen. Mitch McConnell , the Senate GOP leader, by 49 percent to 44 percent with 4 percent preferring “other” and 4 percent undecided, in a May 22 Rasmussen Reports Survey. McConnell is viewed favorably by 52 percent of voters compared to 42 percent who see him negatively, while Lunsford is viewed positively by 47 percent of voters compared to 42 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Rasmussen said just 67 percent of John McCain supporters said they would also vote for McConnell, while 28 percent will defect to Lunsford.

• Minnesota: incumbent GOP Sen. Norm Coleman is leading Democratic hopeful Al Franken 47 percent to 45 percent with 5 percent preferring “other” and 3 percent undecided, in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 22. The difference is within the 4.5 percent margin of error. The number of voters who view Coleman favorably or unfavorably are equally divided at 49 percent, while Franken is viewed unfavorably by 49 percent and favorably by 47 percent. A month ago, Coleman led 50 percent to 43 percent. A Minneapolis Star Tribune poll conducted May 12-15 had Coleman in better shape, leading Franken 51 percent to 44 percent with a margin of error of 3.6 percent. Coleman is viewed favorably by 53 percent of voters compared to 33 percent, and Franken is viewed unfavorably by 39 percent versus 33 percent who view him favorably. As far as Franken’s tax woes — he admitted he has had to pay penalties and correct past filings in different states - 43 percent of voters say they are satisfied with his explanations and 42 percent say they are not.

• New Hampshire: Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, the former governor, leads Republican incumbent John Sununu 50 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent preferring “other” and 4 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 21. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Fifty-eight percent regard Shaheen favorably compared to 40 percent who do not, while 49 percent view Sununu positively compared to 47 percent.

• Colorado: Democrat Mark Udall is leading Republican Bob Schaffer 47 percent to 41 percent in the race to claim the seat of retiring GOP incumbent Wayne Allard , in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 19. Nine percent are undecided and the margin of error is 4.5 percent. Udall is regarded favorably by 50 percent of voters and unfavorably by 35 percent, compared to a 44 percent favorability rating for Schaffer and a 39 percent unfavorable score.

• Maine: Republican Sen. Susan Collins still has a 52 percent to 42 percent lead over Democratic challenger Tom Allen , although that is down from the 16 point advantage she had a month ago, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 14. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Collins is viewed favorably by 70 percent of voters compared to 29 percent with a negative view, and Allen is viewed favorably by 58 percent compared to 35 percent. Collins has the backing of 74 percent of conservatives, 55 percent of moderates and 27 percent of liberals. Allen draws on the support of 71 percent of liberal voters, 36 percent of moderates and 20 percent of conservatives.

• Kansas: Two-term Republican Sen. Pat Roberts has a 50 percent to 42 percent lead over his Democratic challenger, former Rep. Jim Slattery. Roberts had looked like a runaway favorite for re-election as Democrats scrambled to find a credible challenger, but they appear to have had at least some success by Slattery’s decision to get into the race. Roberts is viewed favorably by 60 percent of voters compared with 34 percent that have negative views, while Slattery’s numbers are 46 percent favorable to 38 percent unfavorable with 17 percent not sure. Both are tied at 46 percent for the support of moderate voters.

• Alaska: A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 14 shows Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens trailing Democrat Mark Begich by 2 points, with the Anchorage mayor leading the 6-term senator 47 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Nearly a quarter of voters who plan to vote for John McCain , say they will back Begich for Senate. Stevens has been a perennial shoo-in, winning his last election with 78 percent of the vote. But since then, he has been caught up in a federal corruption investigation and the number of voters who view him unfavorably stands at 53 percent to 46 percent who have a positive view. Voters view Begich favorably by a 54 percent to 38 percent margin.

• New Mexico: If the sentiment of New Mexico voters today holds up until November, the Democratic party may pick up another Senate seat. In a SurveyUSA poll of likely New Mexican voters, Democrat Tom Udall would easily defeat either Republican running for the seat, Rep. Heather A. Wilson (61-35 percent) or Rep. Steve Pearce (60-36 percent). The margin of error was +/- 2.3 percent. Wilson and Pearce are in a tight race for the Republican nomination, which is currently held by retiring Sen. Pete V. Domenici . The poll shows them almost tied, with Pearce having the slight edge over Wilson (49-46 percent). The primary is June 3. The margin of error on the Republican-only poll was +/- 4.8 percent. The poll was conducted May 12-14.

• North Carolina: Sen. Elizabeth Dole may be hearing footsteps behind her as two polls show her Democratic challenger, Kay Hagan, a five term member of the state senate, closing the gap between them. Public Policy Polling has Dole ahead by 48 percent to 43 percent compared to the 17 point lead she had in February. The survey was conducted May 8-9 and has a margin of error of 4 percent. Rasmussen Reports released a poll conducted May 8 that showed Hagan ahead of Dole, although by a statistically insignificant 48 percent to 47 percent. A month earlier, Dole had a 13 point lead in this poll. Hagan scored a runaway victory in the state’s May 6 primary for the right to challenge Dole, and PPP says the visibility she built up during that campaign may have helped. Now it remains to be seen if she can raise the $10 million she says she needs to compete with Dole. As of now, CQ Politics rates the race Republican favored although the rating notes that Dole is vulnerable, in part because of her ties to President Bush. Rasmussen noted that Hagan has tried hard to make that connection by noting that Dole votes with Bush 92 percent of the time. Dole’s numbers are 56 percent favorable to 38 percent unfavorable with 5 percent not sure. Hagan has 53 percent favorable to 30 percent unfavorable with 16 percent not sure.