CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Aug. 6, 2008 – 10:17 p.m.
2008 Election Forecast: Minnesota - the ‘Polka-Dot’ State
By Marie Horrigan, CQ Staff
CQ Politics Presidential Race Rating: Leans Democratic
Electoral Votes: 10
The Democrats’ presidential winning streak in Minnesota, the longest in any state, is at eight elections. This is because, by a narrow margin, its voters stuck with native son Walter F. Mondale over President Ronald Reagan in 1984. The last Republican to carry the state for president was incumbent Richard M. Nixon in 1972, when he won every state except Massachusetts; Minnesota Democratic icon Hubert H. Humphrey held the state over Nixon in 1968.
Minnesota’s electorate is often described as “purple” — an even mix of Democratic “blue” and Republican “red.” Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota, said the state could better be described as “polka-dotted.”
“There are some really very strong blue areas — the Twin Cities are about as liberal as you can get, particularly Minneapolis — and some very strong red areas. And then you’ve got these kind of lighter shades. But purple . . . not statewide,” Jacobs said.
Obama won the state’s Feb. 5 Democratic caucuses over Clinton with two-thirds support. Minnesota, said Steven Schier, a political scientist from Carleton College, has “all the characteristics of a classic Obama state,” including a small working-class population and a higher than average percentage of college graduates; its minority population, while relatively small, tends to be politically active.
Meanwhile, McCain’s strategy of focusing on primary states left him at a disadvantage in Minnesota’s Republican caucuses, despite the strong early endorsement he received from Minnesota Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty . Mitt Romney won the caucuses with 41 percent while McCain placed second with 22 percent, closely followed by Mike Huckabee with 20 percent.
Still, McCain, in his efforts to deprive Obama of some of the Democrats’ typical building blocks toward an electoral vote majority, will certainly be in play in Minnesota, where he will accept the nomination at the Republican National Convention in St. Paul. He can take encouragement from the fact that George W. Bush came close to breaking that Democratic winning streak, losing by just over 2 percentage points in 2000 and by less than 4 points in 2004.
In the state’s other closely-watched race, Republican Sen. Norm Coleman is facing a substantial challenge from a well-known and well-financed Democrat, former “Saturday Night Live” comic Al Franken. (Franken belatedly drew competition for the Sept. 9 primary but is expected to be nominated.)
Franken entered early and built a strong ground organization that earned him the endorsement of the state Democratic convention in June. He has sought to channel voter dissatisfaction over Republican policies, even among many of the state’s swing voters, by tying Coleman to Bush. Analyst Jacobs said the siting of the Republican convention in St. Paul — where Coleman once served as mayor and switched from the Democrats to the Republican Party — will be “more risk than reward” for the incumbent, who has sought to distance himself from Bush and play down his party label.
While the race remains highly competitive and is likely to be the state’s most expensive ever, Coleman recently seemed to gain at least a slight edge as Franken fended off controversies stemming from his career as a satirist, author and radio show host. These included late payment of taxes in 17 states from 2003 to 2006, as well as some of his racier satirical writing, including a piece titled “Porn-O-Rama” that was published in Playboy in 2000. These problems have created an odd situation “where the challenger is the one who’s being challenged,” Jacobs said. CQ Politics rates the Senate race Leans Republican.
The Republicans are playing defense in the state’s most competitive House race, for the suburban Twin Cities seat of retiring Rep. Jim Ramstad , a well-liked GOP moderate who has served nine terms in the House. Democrats have made recent advances in the district, which is the state’s most affluent.
“This is a district in transition,” Jacobs said.
2008 Election Forecast: Minnesota - the ‘Polka-Dot’ State
Ramstad’s middle-of-the-road philosophy was a good fit for the district, but Democrats argue that state Rep. Erik Paulsen, the GOP’s candidate for the open seat, is too conservative.
Republicans return fire by saying Ashwin Madia, the Democrats’ candidate, is too liberal. Madia is an Iraq War veteran and first-time candidate who managed to prevail over an established state senator to win the Democratic endorsement and has held his own in terms of fundraising. CQ Politics rates this race No Clear Favorite.
Democrats also are staging two longshot House bids. In one, they are challenging first-term Rep. Michelle Bachmann, who is favored over Elwyn Tinklenberg, a former state transportation secretary. Democrats argue Bachmann’s strongly conservative views are out of the mainstream of a district that runs from Twin Cities suburbs to St. Cloud, but the district’s Republican leanings are evident in the 57 percent share its voters gave to Bush in 2004. CQ Politics’ race rating: Republican Favored.
In the third race, three-term Republican Rep. John Kline of the Twin Cities’ southern suburbs faces an upset bid by Steve Sarvi, a former small-city mayor who served in the Iraq War. CQ Politics Race Rating: Republican Favored.
The Republicans’ sole serious takeover bid is in the southern First District, which they lost in 2006 when Democrat Tim Walz , a high school teacher and coach, unseated six-term GOP Rep. Gil Gutknecht. But Walz, whose win broke a tie and gave the Democrats their current 5-3 lead in the state’s House delegation, has posted strong fundraising totals, and party officials in Washington bolstered him by putting him on their list of incumbent “Frontline Democrats” who they are working to protect.
Republicans in the 1st District will decide in the Sept. 9 primary between the party’s endorsed candidate, oncologist Brian Davis, and state Sen. Dick Day.
CQ Politics rates the November race Leans Democrat.
Comments
First, just a reminder. Minnesota does not have a Democratic Party nor Democratic endorsements. Minnesotans take great pride that their current majority party is the DFL (Democratic Farmer Labor). The party has a proud history which is the combinded history of two equally proud predecessor parties! (Maybe its time to do a story on the DFL as well as North Dakota's party alingned with the National Democrats.) Second: Love your description of Minnesota being a "polka dot" state. Brings to mind the great ethnic background and diversity Minnesota is so proud of, especially those groups that enjoyed the polka! Third: Tim Walz has done a great job of representing his district. While his election was an upset, he has really endeared himself to the voters of the First District (and in fact adjacent sections of the 2nd district who are not being represented by Mr. Klien). The republicans there face a dangerous primary in mid-September. While their endorsed candidate is most likely leading in that race, it turns out he has his own serious tax problems. Fourth: One can only hope that both Ms. Bachman and Mr. Klien lose their seats. Both of their DFL opponents have been endorsed by both the DFL and former Governor Ventura's Independence Party. Why, neither care to represent their constituents. Mr. Kline lacks Minnesota values. He is a carpetbagger who moved around the state until he found a district that would elect him so that he could move away from Minnesota. He refuses to lift a finger to assist his constituents in their efforts to secure Federal funds, etc. Ms. Bachman holds extreme postions on too many views. Those views comdined with her embarassing over-the-hill episode with the President during his State of the Union speech and her membership in an extreme anti-Catholic church/organization make her a prime candidate for defeat by the right candidate.
Al Franken has gotten a little tripped up by the Porn-O-Rama thing but I think his savvy is going to make things very difficult for Coleman. Franken waltzed through the Porn-O-Rama problem and came out looking like a serious political candidate. If he continues to handle things the way he has, he'll surely overcome.
the Minnesota winning streak is 8 presidential elections NOT 7. (1976, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004). I believe that's 8 Presidential Elections. You do the math.
Thanks, Howard Liu, we have corrected our story.
Nader got 5% of the vote in Minnesota in 2000. Nader got only 1% of the vote in 2004 in Minnesota. That might have been worth mentioning.
And, in the age of modern politics, (since 1932), Republicans have only won three elections, (1952, 1956, 1972), 16 out of 19 elections.
In seven state polls conducted between mid-June and late July, Obama's average lead was 11.5 points over McCain. Two polls had Obama in a narrow lead and the other five had leads in double digits, ranging to a high of eighteen points. What makes this a purple state? George W. Bush was renominated in NYC. I don't recall the Empire State being competitive in the 2004 election.
Al Franken better begin to start praying that I, Jack Shepard eliminates Norm Coleman from the Minnesota U.S. Senate Race in the GOP Primary on Sept. 9, 2008. By Jack Shepard web site www.jackshepardforsenate.com Jack Shepard is the only candidate running against Sen. Norm Coleman in the GOP Minnesota U.S. Senate Primary on September 9, 2008 DFL endorsed U.S. Senate Candidate Al Franken Race against incumbent Senator Norm Coleman is in big trouble, No one knows what Al Franken polling numbers are if Al Franken was to run against Jack Shepard in the Minnesota General Election in November. I just do not see how the Union Workers of Minnesota can let Norm Coleman get re-elected when Steve Hunter said, "Norm Coleman is standing on their "Working families of Minnesota's" Throats:" a more complete statement is below The true facts are Sen. Norm Coleman is a smooth talker, "rapid-fire style, words pouring smoothly from his lips" and is very believable. There is no reason to think that with Norm Coleman's low ratings that he is a shoe in. You have to admit in Minnesota Norm Coleman is at 50/50 at best in people who support him. Steve Hunter, secretary-treasurer of the Minnesota AFL-CIO, recently at a new conference called on Coleman to change his ways and put working families first. "Sen. Coleman isn't standing with working families," Hunter said. "He's standing on their throats At the Minnesota U.S. Senate candidate forum of the 2008 campaign at Farmfest., "As the crowd applauded with gusto, Coleman smiled that big smile. "I bring people together"- it is the best example of unfortunately Coleman's smooth talk is believed by the Minnesota Voters, as you know in 2003 Norm Coleman voted 98% on the republican side of the aisle please tell me how that is partisan and bring people together? Al Franken could have done his home word better like the fact that Coleman will have a lot of explaining to do to Minnesota sugar beet farmers before he gets their vote. Coleman's support of the Central America Free Trade Agreement has brought more Central American sugar into the U.S. market, harming the Minnesota sugar beet farmers. When Franken said, "Norm Coleman is in the pocket of Big Oil. He's received more contributions from Big Oil than any politician in the history of Minnesota", "It apparently was not what the farming audience came to hear. Franken's opening was greeted with tepid applause" So Norm did, received more contributions from Big Oil than any politician in the history of Minnesota but the Minnesota Voters do not grasp the sad importance of this because this was a re-election donation reward for Norm Coleman to do the bidding of Big Oil to interest the Big Oil profits at the expense of the average Minnesotan. Minnesota Voters know this year as a hard year for the struggling Workers of America caused by the sky high oil price, I question why are the Big Oil Companies allowed to make the largest profits in the history of the Big Oil companies in America. One reason is because of all the tax breaks that Norm Coleman voted for Al Franken could have said this statement in a form that the Minnesota Voters could have better understood. It was not what Al Franken said, but how he said it, soon I am for changing smooth talking Senator Norm Coleman's name to Teflon Norm; he sure can talk his way believably in and out of anything. I hope he will talk his way out of the U.S. Senate.
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