2008 Election Forecast: All Eyes on Florida, Again

Susan MacManus, a University of South Florida politics professor, said McCain should draw well among the state’s ample population from the upper age brackets, a demographic that was not a great strength for Obama in his quest for the nomination. “The Boomers and older are looking for somebody that’s experienced,” she says. She thinks that McCain’s background as a Navy pilot, Vietnam prisoner of war and “strong defense” senator will appeal not only to the many Floridians tied to the military but also to conservative voters who support an assertive use of U.S. might.

“One of the key issues in Florida is going to be turnout. It’s very unpredictable,” McManus says, adding “get-out-the-vote is going to be critical for both candidates.”

Turnout efforts may also hinge on the campaign money available to finance them. With 10 media markets in Florida, the state is a particularly expensive one in which to stage a campaign.

Along with the battleground presidential race, the state features eight competitive congressional races, the longest roster in the country. And even Republican optimists have to admit that their party is mainly on the defensive in those races.

In the Orlando suburbs, former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas has shown strong fundraising numbers in her challenge against Republican Tom Feeney ’s bid for a third term. He has been hindered by reports about his participation in a golf trip that was paid for by disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff. CQ Politics rates this race a competitive Leans Republican.

Meanwhile, in the 13th District, in and around Sarasota, banker Christine Jennings is waging an intense rematch against GOP freshman Vern Buchanan ; she maintains she lost last time only because of voting irregularities. This race is also rated Leans Republican.

And, in the middle-class and Cuban-American suburbs of Miami, the well-known and increasingly well-financed former mayor of Hialeah, Demcorat Raul Martinez, is contesting Republican Lincoln Diaz-Balart ’s bid for a ninth term. CQ Politics race rating: Leans Republican.

Republican Mario Diaz-Balart is safer than his older brother. The three-term representative is being challenged by Joe Garcia, a former Democratic chairman of the party in Miami-Dade County. CQ Politics race rating: Republican favored.

In and around Orlando, five Democrats have lined up for the August 26 primary to challenge Rep. Ric Keller , who won his fourth term in 2006 by an unexpectedly close margin — attributable in part to changing demographics in the fast-growing region. This, too, is Republican Favored.

Along the Space Coast, Democrats also see an opportunity in the retirement of Republican Dave Weldon . The front-runners in the primaries are GOP state Sen. Bill Posey and Paul Rancatore, a lieutenant colonel in the Air Force reserves recruited by the Democrats because of his military and space expertise. CQ Politics rates the November race Republican Favored.

Meanwhile, the GOP has a serious pickup opportunity is in the south-central part of the state. Republicans are targeting Democratic freshman Tim Mahoney , who won his seat two years ago after suggestive text messages to a teenager sank the career of Republican Rep. Mark Foley just weeks before the election. The area has a decided GOP lean, but Mahoney has one of the more conservative voting records among House Democrats and there has been a heated GOP primary campaign between wealthy lawyer Tom Rooney and state Rep. Gayle Harrell. Local councilman Hal Valeche is also running. CQ Politics race rating: Leans Republican.

The other GOP takeover bid, by Iraq War veteran Allen West, is a much longer shot, because freshman Democrat Ron Klein has amassed an enormous financial advantage in what’s typically a swing district between Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale. This race is Democrat Favored.