By Greg Giroux, CQ Staff

CQ Politics Presidential Race Rating: Safe Democratic

Electoral Votes: 21

The fact that Sen. Barack Obama is popular at home in Illinois precludes any doubt that his home state’s big cache of 21 electoral votes will be in his column. The Hawaii-born Obama, who settled in Chicago after receiving his law degree from Harvard, took a whopping 65 percent of the vote in the Feb. 5 “Super Tuesday” Democratic primary — even though his chief rival, New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton , grew up in a suburb of Chicago.

Republican nominee John McCain may pass through Illinois for the odd fundraiser or factory tour, but he is very unlikely to spend much time and capital when the best it appears he can hope for is to trim Obama’s expected solid victory margin in the state.

Yet any Democratic nominee, even if not a favorite son such as Obama, would be strongly favored to win Illinois. For many years a Midwestern Republican stronghold, and then a battleground swing state for many years after that, Illinois has taken on the trappings of a Democratic stronghold over the past couple of decades. In 2004, John Kerry defeated President Bush in Illinois by 10 percentage points. His victory was aided by his huge 70 percent vote share in Cook County, which includes Chicago and its inner suburbs.

This transpired in the state historically known as the Land of Lincoln after the iconic 16th president who began his political career in the state capital of Springfield. The state went Republican for president in 16 of 18 elections from 1860 through 1928. Even after the rise of Franklin D. Roosevelt prompted a big Democratic breakthrough, Illinois spent years as one of the nation’s leading presidential bellwethers. John F. Kennedy’s crucial Illinois win in 1960 over Richard Nixon was by two-tenths of a percentage point. Republican candidates scored six consecutive wins in Illinois as recently as 1968 through 1988.

But the Democrats gained the initiative, with the key change coming in the suburban “collar counties” ringing Chicago that have become much more hospitable to the Democrats in recent years. Democrats today hold both Senate seats, with Obama’s colleague Richard J. Durbin , a shoo-in to win a third term in November, serving as majority whip. Gov. Rod R. Blagojevich is a Democrat, as are 11 of Illinois’ 19 House members and majorities in both state legislative chambers.

This year’s action in congressional elections reflects the Democrats’ muscle-flexing, in a state where Democratic candidates can be expected to grab onto Obama’s coattails as tightly as possible.

One of the national Democratic Party’s top-priority bids to take over Republican-held House seats is in the 11th District, a mix of suburbs and rural communities south of Chicago left open by seven-term Republican Jerry Weller . Democratic state Sen. Debbie Halvorson was a top candidate recruit, and she emerged as a strong favorite after the original Republican nominee withdrew shortly after the February primary. Halvorson still has an edge, but the replacement Republican nominee, concrete company executive Martin Ozinga, has done a good job playing catchup and can’t be counted out.

The Democrats’ other top-tier House target in Illinois is the 10th District in the mostly upscale suburbs north and northwest of Chicago. Democrat Dan Seals, a business consultant, is waging a rematch against Republican Rep. Mark Steven Kirk . Kirk won by 7 percentage points in 2006, but that was closer than initially expected, and Seals, who got an earlier start this time, may benefit from Obama’s popularity. Republicans counter that Kirk, one of the more moderate House Republicans, is popular among his constituents.

The Democrats face longer odds challenging freshman Republican Rep. Peter Roskam in the 6th District suburbs west and northwest of Chicago and in a bid to take over the typically Republican, mid-state 18th District left open by retiring seven-term GOP Rep. Ray LaHood . Republican Rep. Judy Biggert of the 13th District, who represents outer suburbs such as Naperville and Bolingbrook southwest of Chicago, is strongly favored but needs to keep an eye on an upstart challenge by businessman Scott Harper.

State Republicans say, however, that they are not only playing defense. They are gunning to reclaim two districts, reaching from the outskirts of metro Chicago into more rural areas, that Democrats took over in recent elections.

There are, in fact, few seats that Republicans want back more than held since March by 14th District Democratic Bill Foster. The seat he won that month in a House special election was vacant because of last November’s resignation by longtime House Republican J. Dennis Hastert — who was the House Speaker for eight years prior to the Democratic takeover in the 2006 elections. But Foster, a wealthy businessman and scientist, has the edge in his November rematch with dairy magnate Jim Oberweis — in part because Oberweis now has lost four races for federal or state office in less than seven years.