By Greg Giroux, CQ Staff

CQ Politics Presidential Race Rating: Leans Republican

Electoral Votes: 11

En route to clinching their nominations, John McCain and Barack Obama both scored narrow but key victories in Missouri’s presidential primaries on Feb. 5. The two now seem headed for a close race in Missouri this fall — and will pay multiple trips to a state that, in its demographic makeup and political history, is a quintessential battleground.

Located close to the geographic center of the contiguous 48 states, Missouri is evocative of the heartland to which presidential candidates attach themselves. The state’s voters are divided about evenly among rural, suburban and urban precincts. Bordering Illinois on the east, Iowa and Kansas to the north and west, and Arkansas to the south, the state is often said to embody traits of the Industrial Midwest, the Plains and the South.

Missouri has sided with the winner in every presidential election over the past century, with the exception of 1956. In the past five elections, the Republican candidate won an average of 46.5 percent of the vote and the Democratic candidate won 46.1 percent, making Missouri the closest state during that time period.

Obama should do well in November in the same areas where he thrived in February: the heavily African-American cities of St. Louis and Kansas City; St. Louis County, which abuts the city and casts about a fifth of Missouri’s votes, more than any other jurisdiction; the academic center of Boone County (University of Missouri at Columbia); and the state capital of Jefferson City. But he will need to draw maximum turnout to offset McCain’s advantages elsewhere.

McCain will likely dominate the contest in rural Missouri, especially in the strongly conservative southwestern part of the state, which has a large concentration of religious conservatives. McCain is also looking to limit his losses in St. Louis County where John Kerry won 54 percent of the vote and amassed a 50,000-vote advantage in his 2004 challenge to Bush.

Missouri is one of the 11 states holding elections for governor this year, and it is probably the Democrats’ best chance to take over a Republican-held seat. Republican Gov. Matt Blunt chose to retire rather than face what would have surely been a tough race against Democratic state Attorney General Jay Nixon. Six-term Republican Rep. Kenny Hulshof is giving up his House seat to oppose Nixon. CQ Politics rates this race No Clear Favorite, our most competitive category.

There’s a good chance of a shift in the congressional delegation toward the Democrats, because the only two highly competitive races in the state are in districts that Republicans are defending.

In northwestern Missouri, four-term Republican Rep. Sam Graves faces a prominent Democratic Party recruit in well-funded Kay Barnes, the former mayor of Kansas City, which contributes about 120,000 residents at the southern end of the district. Much of the remaining district is rural and conservative-leaning, so it’s no surprise that Graves, a resident of the small northwestern town of Tarkio, is trying to brand Barnes as an urban liberal. Barnes counters by pointing out frequently that she’s a native of St. Joseph, a small city of 74,000 about 50 miles north of Kansas City. CQ Politics race rating: Leans Republican.

Democrats are also eyeing Hulshof’s northeastern Missouri seat. Bush dominated the district in 2004 with 59 percent of the vote, but Democrats think they might be competitive with a good showing in Boone County and better-than-average numbers in rural counties that usually vote overwhelmingly for Republicans. State Rep. Judy Baker, a Democrat, and Blaine Luetkemeyer, a former GOP state representative, won crowded primary elections on Aug. 5. This race, too is rated Leans Republican.