By Greg Giroux, CQ Staff

CQ Politics Presidential Race Rating: No Clear Favorite

Electoral Votes: 9

Colorado, where Democrats have made significant gains during this decade, now stands as one of the states that’s going to be most closely contested in the fall. So John McCain has to hope that this fast-growing and politically evolving state sticks at least one more time to its habit of backing Republicans for president — as it has done in all but two of the past 14 elections.

If Barack Obama wins, it will be largely because of the strength of his own candidacy and the momentum his Democratic Party has built in the state during this decade. That the party is holding its national convention in Denver, of course, shouldn’t hurt.

McCain, who is emphasizing the image he has pursued as a political maverick, and Obama, who has cultivated a reputation as a political outsider during his four years representing Illinois in the Senate, will both be courting independent voters.

As of this summer, the unaffiliated have moved ahead into a clear plurality among Colorado’s registered voters. And, in two of the closest presidential contests of recent years, Colorado independents helped shape the outcome in the state by voting in big numbers for the candidate outside the two-party system. Ross Perot took 23 percent in 1992 (compared with 19 percent nationwide) and Ralph Nader, who took 5 percent in 2000 (3 percent nationally).

“In the end, it comes down to whether or not McCain or Obama can captivate Colorado’s palate through relative fiscal conservatism, social moderation, with just a splash of populism and energy and environmentalism talk for flavor,” Kyle Saunders, a political scientist at Colorado State University, said in assessing the winning presidential formula in the state at the moment.

This fall, the marquee statewide contest is for the state’s Senate seat, held for the past dozen years by Republican Wayne Allard , who’s keeping a self-imposed term limit. The matchup, a clear-cut ideological choice, was essentially set a year ago: The Republican is Bob Schaffer, who retired from the House after six years in 2002, ran unsuccessfully for the Senate in 2004 and now sits on the state board of education. The Democrat is Mark Udall , a congressman for the past decade.

Schaffer’s record is basically conservative, though with some independent streaks, and his allies have already tried to paint Udall as a “Boulder liberal” — an allusion to the left-leaning reputation of his political base, the home of the University of Colorado’s main campus. But Schaffer is the underdog at this point because the difficult national political environment for Republicans; Udall’s consistently better showing in the polls, his solid fundraising — and news reports about Schaffer’s business dealings and a trip he took as a House member that was revealed to have been arranged in part by the firm of influence peddler Jack Abramoff. CQ Politics rates the race Leans Democratic.

The Democrats took a 4-3 edge in the House delegation following the 2006 election, as Ed Perlmutter picked up a seat in suburban Denver that he’s sure to hold for a second term.

And if there will be any partisan shift this November, it almost certainly will be to 5-2 for the Democrats. The party is waging an aggressive campaign to deny Republican Marilyn Musgrave a fourth term representing Fort Collins, some suburbs of Denver and the eastern plains. Though the area is generally conservative and usually reliable for the GOP, Musgrave’s 46 percent plurality last time was the poorest showing of any winning House candidate in the country. Democrats have high hopes in Betsy Markey, a former Salazar aide. CQ Politics race rating: Leans Republican.

Two of the seven current House members are giving up their seats: Udall, to run for the Senate, and Republican Tom Tancredo , the conservative crusader against illegal immigration, who has represented suburban Denver for a decade and decided to retire before his quixotic presidential bid sputtered out. The demographics of both districts make partisan turnover almost impossible, and so the Aug. 12 primary yielded two people who can essentially pack their bags for Washington: Democratic businessman Jared Polis, who is running as Udall’s successor, and Republican Mike Coffman, the current secretary of state, who is seeking to be Tancredo’s.

Certain to be back next year is the host congresswoman of the convention, Democrat Diana DeGette of Denver, seeking her seventh term, and freshman Doug Lamborn from the central part of the state, who survived a tough primary over his two closest rivals from 2006.