By Rachel Kapochunas, CQ Staff

Alaska Republican Rep. Don Young ’s narrow 304-vote margin over a prominent primary challenger provides an exception to a political rule: that re-nominating an incumbent strengthens a party’s chances of holding a seat. Plagued by ethics allegations that cost him heavily in his primary contest with Republican Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell, Young enters the brief general election contest trailing Democratic nominee Ethan Berkowitz by a double-digit percentage in the most recent independent poll.

CQ Politics has changed its rating on the race for Alaska’s sole House seat, which was No Clear Favorite, to Leans Democratic in the wake of Parnell’s concession last Thursday that he lost the Aug. 26 primary. Parnell — who would move up to governor to succeed incumbent Sarah Palin if she wins as vice presidential running mate on the national Republican ticket headed by John McCain — deferred his concession for three weeks while awaiting the results of a protracted absentee ballot count.

The new Leans Democratic designation on this race means Berkowitz — a former Democratic leader in the state House and the party’s 2006 nominee for lieutenant governor in the contest against Parnell — has a tangible edge in his race with Young. But it also means the race remains highly competitive, with a comeback by Young certainly not out of the question.

Young has represented Alaska in the House as a statewide office-holder for 35 years. He dominated most of his elections in the Republican-leaning state, as his seniority helped him work in concert with Alaska Republican Sen. Ted Stevens to steer billions of dollars in federal funds to their home state. But after decades of political security, both Stevens and Young find themselves this year at serious risk of losing their seats — in large part because both have longstanding ties to executives with Veco, an Alaska-based oil services company that is at the center of a sweeping state political corruption scandal.

Stevens is actually in more legal jeopardy than Young. He was indicted in July on federal charges of failing to report substantial gifts, including a major renovation to his Alaska home, that allegedly were provided by Veco officials. He faces a trial in Washington, D.C., scheduled to begin on Sept. 24 that, depending on its outcome, could make or break his hopes of overcoming his strong Democratic opponent, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, in a contest CQ Politics also rates as Leans Democratic.

Young — despite news reports that Veco executives assisted his campaign fundraising efforts and questions raised about his efforts to obtain federal funding for a road project in Florida that might have benefitted another campaign contributor — has not been charged with wrongdoing.

Yet many more Alaskans appear to maintain affection for Stevens, who after 40 years in office is the longest-serving Republican senator in the nation’s history, than for Young, who has a rough-hewn and often confrontational manner that has left a trail of hard feelings among some Alaskans.

“Young is a very, very considerable underdog at this point,” Anchorage pollster Ivan Moore told CQ Politics. Moore noted that polls throughout the year have shown Young becoming steadily more vulnerable for re-election.

Young’s inability to draw strong primary support from his base does not bode well for the incumbent in November, when voters of all parties will be heading to the polls. Alaskans tend to vote Republican, in part, because of the party’s support for gun owners’ rights and conservative positions on other issues. Nonetheless, unaffiliated and third-party supporters make up 60 percent of registered voters in Alaska.

Political scientist Jerry McBeath of the University of Alaska at Fairbanks believes Republicans are at a greater disadvantage with Young on the ballot. “Early polls up to the primary predicted if Young won the primary, he would stand less well against Berkowitz than Sean Parnell. I think that judgment continues,” McBeath said.

A poll conducted last week by the non-partisan firm Research 2000 for Daily Kos, a liberal Web site, showed Berkowitz leading Young 53 percent to 39 percent with 8 percent undecided. The same poll showed Berkowitz’ lead reduced to a slim 5 percentage points, 48 percent to 43 percent, had Parnell ended up as the Republican nominee. A total of 600 respondents deemed likely voters were surveyed Sept. 15 through Sept. 17, and the poll had a statistical margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The poll showed Berkowitz was viewed favorably by 56 percent of respondents and unfavorably by 34 percent. Underscoring the difficulty Young faces in trying to regain ground in the general election, the poll showed him with a favorable rating of 41 percent and an unfavorable rating of 58 percent. Parnell’s ratings of 51 percent to 32 percent were far more positively weighted.

Though Young’s statewide name recognition can hardly be matched, Berkowitz did not start the race from scratch in terms of his profile in Alaska. His statewide run in 2006 for lieutenant governor made him a familiar face to many voters and was a major reason why party leaders recruited him to run for the seat.