CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Sept. 26, 2008 – 12:06 a.m.
Ratings Say Obama Has Put Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana in Play
By Greg Giroux, CQ Staff
The Democrats lost each of the past two presidential elections to Republican George W. Bush by the difference of the electoral votes of one big state. This prompted the campaign team for Democratic nominee Barack Obama to build a game plan that would put into play more states that typically vote Republican. Though the “bounce” in polls enjoyed by Republican candidate John McCain following his nominating convention early this month briefly called this strategy into doubt, Obama’s recent resurgence to a lead in most national polls — and gains in many state polls — has revived his party’s hopes of winning in states lost by Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004.
CQ Politics, in fact, has changed its electoral vote ratings for three states — all longstanding Republican presidential strongholds — where Obama appears increasingly competitive. Virginia, which has 13 electoral votes, has been reclassified as No Clear Favorite, CQ Politics’ category for the most competitive races, after previously being rated Leans Republican. CQ Politics also changed the ratings of both Indiana, with 11 electoral votes, and North Carolina, with 15 electoral votes, to Leans Republican, a category for highly competitive races that sweeps in states where McCain has a slight edge, from the less competitive Republican Favored category.
Bush took 286 electoral votes to 252 won by Kerry (though one elector in Minnesota instead cast a ballot for John Edwards, Kerry’s vice presidential running mate). That means Obama needs to capture at least 18 more electoral votes than did Kerry to make it to the majority of 270 needed to win the White House. A win in any one of the states for which the rating has been changed would get him close. Winning two of them, while holding all of the states Kerry won in 2004, would ensure his victory.
While none of the three changes shifted a state into Obama’s column, he is rated as now having the advantage in 19 states and the District of Columbia, totaling 255 electoral votes, or 15 less than an Electoral College majority. McCain is accorded the edge in 24 states (still including Indiana and North Carolina) with 200 electoral votes.
These are not the only states in which Obama is hotly pursuing a turnaround from the outcomes of four years ago. Virginia is now one of six states, totaling 79 electoral votes, that are rated No Clear Favorite after favoring Bush in 2004. The others are Florida (27 electoral votes), Ohio (20), Colorado (9), Nevada (5) and New Mexico (5). The only other state rated as a tossup, New Hampshire, gave its four electoral votes to Kerry last time.
Virginia joined the rest of the South in shedding its traditional Democratic Party ties over the past few decades and has voted Republican in each of the past 10 presidential elections. But Obama, seeking to build upon gains Democrats have made in many down-ballot races during this decade, targeted the state and has been polling competitively with McCain. In a pair of surveys released early this week, Fox News/Rasmussen Reports had McCain up by 50 percent to 48 percent and an ABC News-Washington Post poll had Obama ahead of McCain by 49 percent to 46 percent. Obama is going to run well in the Northern Virginia suburbs near Washington, D.C., as well as among the state’s large black population.
Obama also is making a serious play for Indiana, which last voted Democratic in 1964, and for North Carolina, which last voted Democratic for president in 1976. Indiana abuts Obama’s home state of Illinois, and northwestern Indiana is part of the media market centered in the senator’s home town of Chicago. Obama also has a solid political organization there, which helped him almost pull off a primary upset over New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton on May 6.
The same day, Obama easily defeated Clinton in the North Carolina primary, dominating the vote among the state’s African-Americans and in the liberal-leaning academic communities in and near Raleigh, Durham and Chapel Hill.
Still, it would take quite a leap for Obama to switch those two states from Republican red to Democratic blue on those Election Night electoral vote maps. While Bush won Virginia by an 8 percentage-point margin, he carried North Carolina by 12 points — even though Democratic vice presidential nominee Edwards represented the state in the Senate — and took Indiana by a 21-point margin.
Along with Indiana and North Carolina, the Leans Republican category also includes Missouri (11 electoral votes), Arkansas (6) and West Virginia (5), for a total of 48 electoral votes. McCain is competing heavily in five states, with a cumulative 65 electoral votes, that are rated Leans Democratic: Pennsylvania (21); Michigan (17); Minnesota (10); Wisconsin (10); and Iowa (7), the latter of which narrowly went for Bush in 2004.
Comments
These changes seem correct to me. But it seems odd that you still are rating New Mexico "No Clear Favorite." NM has been edging toward "Lean Dem" for a while now in polls, and I expected that you'd change it when you did an update. Why still "No Clear Favorite"?
The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do state-by-state, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states. The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote -- that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided "battleground" states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election. Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide. The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes-- 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect. See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
THERE IS ZERO percent chance that MCCAIN/PALIN take this election FAIR and ABOVE BOARD... no chance... even with the media skipping.... McCain affair during first marriage Palin affair with husbands ex-partner Palin stoopidest answers ever during interview Keating 5, where McCain had his own number (4) Mega wealth of McCain ..... NO CHANCE...NO WAY...NO MCCAIN
I am glad that these traditional republican strongholds are becoming more and more competitive. I would like to see Obama put some money into Arizona. I live in the Phoenix area and for every McCain sticker that I see, I see at least 5 Obama stickers. Despite what the polls are saying about Arizona McCain is not safe here. I think that if Obama put some money into this state he could either win it or McCain would win it by and extremely narrow margin.
Obama has been pumping money all over the country and also has ACORN to disenfranchise voters! American voters know that he did nothing for his poor constituency on the southside of Chicago but allowed his friend, slumlord and convicted felon Tony Rezko to make them homeless. Then, when Obama wanted to purchase his dream home he rceived a gift of more than $600 thousand from his friend, slumlord and convicted felon Rezko to aid in the purchase Obama's $2 million mansion at the expense of the same taxpayers Obama was hired to protect and serve. Politicians should be held accountable for their actions, not promoted. Country First, not Obama's personal interests!
Thanks for the update on these three potential swing states. I think in North Carolina, you might also want to consider the Bob Barr factor. He may just do well enough to siphon off McCain's edge. As to Indiana, I will mention as I did regarding another farm state, Senator McCain has shot himself in both feet with his views on ethanol and the alternate fuels industry in general. Many Indiana faimly farmers are finally reaping the benefits from the expansion of this industry. Mr. McCain wants to cut them off at the knees. While they would normally not vote Democratic, these family farmers will either reluctantly do so or alternatively skip over the Presidential choice. Either way, Obama picks up votes.
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