CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Oct. 3, 2008 – 12:11 a.m.
New Orleans Voters are Political Jury in Rep. Jefferson’s Primary Saturday
By Greg Giroux, CQ Staff
Louisiana Democratic Rep. William J. Jefferson is seeking a 10th term in the U.S. House even though he was indicted last year on multiple federal corruption and bribery charges and is preparing to stand trial in December. But Jefferson, who has denied wrongdoing, will face a different kind of verdict on Saturday: whether his constituents in the overwhelmingly Democratic, New Orleans-based 2nd Congressional District want him to continue representing them.
Jefferson is one of seven Democratic candidates vying in Saturday’s primary election in the black-majority district, where Jefferson, one of the senior African-American members of Congress, was first elected in 1990. The size of the Democratic field speaks to the congressman’s vulnerability — and to the likelihood of a primary runoff election on Nov. 4, the national Election Day, which would occur if no candidate wins a majority of the vote on Saturday.
Jefferson’s challengers are state Rep. Cedric Richmond; Byron Lee, a councilman in Jefferson Parish (a parish is Louisiana’s version of a county); Helena Moreno, a television journalist; James Carter, a member of the New Orleans City Council; Troy “C” Carter, a former New Orleans councilman who also challenged Jefferson in the 2006 House election; and Kenya J.H. Smith, a former aide to New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin.
Should a runoff between the top two Democratic finishers be needed, the general election would be held on Dec. 6, with the Democratic nominee facing Joseph Cao, a lawyer who was the only candidate to file for the Republican nomination. Should one of the Democrats win Saturday’s primary outright with a majority vote, the general election would be held, as originally scheduled, on Nov. 4.
This scheduling quirk, which could also affect the Republicans in the competitive race for the northwestern 4th District seat left open by retiring Republican Rep. Jim McCrery , resulted from the postponement of the Sept. 6 primary because of damage inflicted by Hurricane Gustav. That forced the first-round primary to be rescheduled for Oct. 4 and runoffs — which are possible in only these two districts — to be held if necessary on Nov. 4. The general elections for the Senate and the other state’s other five House races will share the Nov. 4 ticket with the presidential race.
The best-funded candidates in the 2nd District Democratic primary are Richmond, who had $361,000 in total receipts as of Sept. 14, and Lee, just behind with $356,000; both have augmented the contributions they received from individuals with loans of their own money exceeding $100,000. With $269,000 in total receipts and little from his own pockets, James Carter has raised more from individual donors than any of Jefferson’s six opponents.
Jefferson has raised just $204,000 since the beginning of 2007. He was stripped in 2006 of his seat on the influential Ways and Means Committee, and his determination to stay in Congress while fighting corruption charges continues to unsettle some Democrats who vowed that their party would uphold the highest standards of ethical conduct.
But Jefferson continues to receive support from members of the Congressional Black Caucus. He’s received contributions in recent weeks from campaign committees linked to House Majority Whip James E. Clyburn of South Carolina and Bennie G. Thompson of Mississippi, the chairman of the Homeland Security Committee.
Despite his precarious political position, Jefferson has overcome unfavorable circumstances before. In December 2006, when the federal government was building its case ahead of the indictment of Jefferson they issued the following June, he easily defeated Democratic state Rep. Karen Carter in a runoff election.
This occurred months after federal investigations leaked an accusation that they had confiscated bribe money that Jefferson had allegedly wrapped in foil and hidden in a freezer. His general election victory also came one month after he took just 30 percent of the vote in an all-party primary election that included Carter and 11 other candidates.
Louisiana this year since switched to a system of separate party primary elections, though the hurricane-related delay could still result in one or two of the House elections being decided in December.
The other major primary election on Saturday is in the 4th District, which McCrery — the ranking Republican on the Ways and Means Committee — is leaving open after two decades representing the Shreveport area. Three Republicans are vying in a competitive race to succeed him: John Fleming, a physician; Chris Gorman, a transportation company executive; and Jeff Thompson, a lawyer and former local chamber of commerce president who is running with McCrery’s endorsement.
Here again, the top two candidates could face more than four weeks of additional intraparty campaigning unless one tops 50 percent of the vote on Saturday.
New Orleans Voters are Political Jury in Rep. Jefferson’s Primary Saturday
The eventual Republican winner is certain, for all practical purposes, to face Democrat Paul Carmouche, the longtime district attorney for the parish that envelops Shreveport and one of his party’s most highly touted candidate recruits in this year’s national House campaign. Backed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the campaign arm of U.S. House Democrats, Carmouche is strongly favored to win an outright majority over three lesser-known opponents in the primary.
All three Republican candidates have ample personal wealth they have brought to bear in the primary election. As of Sept. 14, Gorman’s $1.3 million in receipts included more than $900,000 in personal loans from the candidate. Gorman put in another $111,000 of his own money on Sept. 29, according to an interim report he filed with the Federal Election Committee. Fleming had loaned his campaign nearly $600,000 of its $795,000 total as of Sept. 14, and he has since put in at least $59,000 more. Thompson loaned his campaign $91,000 of his $503,000 in receipts, and has given his campaign at least $14,000 more since Sept. 14. Carmouche had raised $666,000, none of which came from his own pockets.
CQ Politics currently rates the race Leans Republican because of the district’s long-standing GOP leanings, but it may be shifted into the tossup category if Saturday’s Republican outcome is inconclusive, forcing the GOP into an expensive runoff election battle to decide its nomination.
In several key contests primary elections will not be needed because the candidates do not face intraparty opposition.
In the race for the Senate, two-term Democrat Mary L. Landrieu will face Republican John Kennedy, the state treasurer. Landrieu is the only Democratic senator this year who is facing a highly competitive race, according to CQ Politics’ ratings, though she has held a steady lead over Kennedy, a former Democrat who made an unsuccessful run in 2004 for Louisiana’s other Senate seat. CQ Politics rates the race Leans Democratic.
Neither are there contested primary elections in the 6th District, where Democratic Rep. Don Cazayoux faces a tough chore defending the formerly Republican seat he won in a May 3 special election. He is being double-teamed by the Republican nominee, state Sen. Bill Cassidy, and state Rep. Michael Jackson, who is running as an independent after losing the Democratic special election primary runoff to Cazayoux in April. This race is rated No Clear Favorite.
In the southwestern 7th District, two-term Republican Rep. Charles Boustany Jr. will face Democratic state Sen. Don Cravins Jr. in what is currently a long-shot challenge but which could tighten before Election Day. The race is currently rated Republican Favored.




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