CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Oct. 13, 2008 – 11:53 p.m.
Smith Faltering in Oregon, Democrat Merkley’s Chances Brighten
By Rachel Kapochunas, CQ Staff
Despite attempts to link himself with high-profile Democrats, Republican Gordon H. Smith is facing an increasingly difficult battle for votes in the highly competitive Oregon Senate race.
Due to Smith’s perceived challenges, continued Democratic growth in the state of Oregon and Smith’s failure to gain a strong lead in recent polls, CQ Politics is changing the rating of the race from Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite, our most competitive category.
“It’s really a toss up right now,” political scientist Robert Eisinger of Lewis & Clark College in Portland told CQ Politics.
“Smith recognizes that the two Republicans who preceded him, [Bob] Packwood and [Mark] Hatfield, had records of bipartisanship. So it is wise of him to emphasize that point,” Eisinger said.
In his campaign commercials, Smith touts his links to all three heavyweight Democratic senators — Barack Obama , John Kerry and Edward M. Kennedy — as he faces what appears to be an increasingly difficult race against Democratic state House speaker Jeff Merkley.
Democrats say Smith’s tactics are a sign of desperation.
“It’s a desperate attempt to run from his record voting with George Bush 90 percent of the time,” said Merkley campaign spokesman Matt Canter. “Smith has tried to foster myth about himself- the myth that he’s a moderate, a myth that he breaks from his party.”
According to Congressional Quarterly’s vote studies, during Bush’s entire tenure, Smith voted with the president (on votes for which Bush took a clear position) 80 percent of the time. That’s in sharp contrast with his 2008 year-to-date “presidential support” score, which is just 45 percent, the lowest among Senate Republicans.
Smith has cultivated a moderate reputation in Congress, bucking his party on major issues, such as the war in Iraq. He announced his opposition to the war in Dec. 2006 and was one of two Republicans who voted the following March for a bill that set a non-binding “goal” to remove most U.S. troops from Iraq by March 31, 2008
He also has forged a working relationship with the state’s Democratic senator, Ron Wyden , though Wyden has sought to distance himself from his GOP colleague in this election. Smith began airing an ad last week that features a past clip of Wyden speaking about his relationship with Smith. “Sen. Smith, my friend, my partner, always meets me half-way,” Wyden states. The two senators’ signatures are featured at the end of the commercial.
According to The Oregonian, Wyden took issue with use of his signature. Wyden has endorsed Merkley and taped new campaign ads for the challenger.
While Smith continues to tout his bipartisan ties, he also has sought to push moderate Democrats and swing voters away from his opponent. Smith labeled Merkley a “Portland Liberal” in a recent television commercial.
Smith’s campaign also aired an additional advertisement that grabbed national headlines for its attacks. In one, Tiffany Edens, a rape victim, accuses Merkley of “protecting” rapists by voting against extending the statute of limitations in Oregon.
Smith Faltering in Oregon, Democrat Merkley’s Chances Brighten
Merkley called the ads “sleazy” and said they distorted Merkley’s true record on crime and his support for extending the statute of limitations and mandatory life imprisonment for sexual predators.
Canter argues that Smith’s attacks have backfired: “He’s run this frivolous negative campaign of attacks ads against Merkley that has been offensive to voters.”
Merkley has promoted his share of negative messages, arguing Smith is part of a “broken” Washington, has espoused “lies” in his advertising, and that he’s run a “sleazy” campaign. He also has repeated allegations that Smith’s family’s frozen food business uses undocumented workers. The senator’s campaign has denied any wrongdoing by Smith Frozen Foods and argues Merkley has run “misleading” ads.
State demographics show Smith has a more difficult road ahead. Canter notes that swing areas outside of Portland once displayed a strong voter registration advantage for Republicans, but now many of those areas have experienced dramatic Democratic gains.
Voter registration figures for the state, released last month, show Democrats with 43 percent to the Republican’s 33 percent. The remaining 24 percent are registered as third party or unaffiliated voters.
Wyden easily won re-election in 2004 with 63 percent of the vote. Oregon voters supported Democrat John Kerry with 51 percent of the vote that same year.
Analyst Eisinger notes that Obama remains popular in the state and is likely to extend coattails to Merkley, though Eisinger believes a Smith win wouldn’t necessarily be a complete loss for Democrats.
“Gordon Smith is the kind of Republican that Sen. Obama would like to have in the Senate,” Eisinger said.
The national parties have each targeted this race, investing significant funds. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and its Republican counterpart, the National Republican Senatorial Committee each reported spending more than $5 million in independent expenditures on the race, according to the most recent 48-hour reports available from the Federal Election Commission Monday.
Merkley’s campaign claims he raised $2 million over the most recent quarter, reports for which are due to be filed Oct. 15. Smith’s campaign has not responded to requests for early fundraising estimates. Smith led Merkley in cash on hand and total receipts as of the most recent report through June 30.
Comments
We must achieve a Democratic majority in the senate. So every Republican who is vulnerable must be replaced. The US can no longer afford the policies of the GOP. They must be relegated to the back seat of the bus so that they may be humbled.
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