By Neda Semnani, CQ Staff

When Democrat John Yarmuth launched what appeared a long-shot bid to unseat five-term Republican Rep. Anne M. Northup in 2006, Republicans scoured back issues of the alternative newspaper he published for liberal musings they thought would hobble him in Kentucky’s generally middle-of-the road 3rd District.

Instead, the communications skills that Yarmuth developed over years in the media helped him persuade voters that Northup was too conservative — netting the challenger a 51 percent to 48 percent victory in that strongly Democratic year — and have helped him expand his support base for this year’s rematch with Northup, in which Yarmuth appears to be in solid shape for re-election.

“ John Yarmuth is very adept at explaining how and why he does things, ” said Al Cross, the former political columnist for the Louisville Courier-Journal.

Yarmuth himself said in an interview, “My district is just about the perfect district for a good communicator.” Taking up nearly all of Jefferson County, which is made up of Louisville and its suburbs, the 3rd is physically compact, making it easy for Yarmuth to touch base with his constituency. It also provides an unusually good audience for a Democrat in conservative-leaning Kentucky. While the state’s other five House districts strongly favored President Bush in 2004, the 3rd went for Democrat John Kerry , albeit by a narrow 51 percent to 49 percent vote.

Northup managed to win re-election that year with 60 percent of the vote, once again rebuffing the Democrats’ argument that she was too conservative and too closely tied to Bush. Early in Northup’s career, Republican leaders gave Northup a coveted seat on the House Appropriations Committee, from which she worked to steer millions of dollars in federal funds to projects in the 3rd District.

Yet not even that political asset could protect her in 2006 from the sharp decline in popularity endured by Bush and the Republican Party in general. And her past reputation for obtaining federal money is a more dubious credential this year, when many voters are complaining about government over-spending and the presidential candidate of Northup’s own Republican Party, Arizona Sen. John McCain , is campaigning heavily on his pledge to cut congressional spending earmarks.

Northup, in fact, arrived quite late — just before Kentucky’s candidate filing deadline in January — to her decision to pursue a rematch against Yarmuth. She had sought a quick rebound after her 2006 defeat by staging a primary challenge to Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher , who was plagued with ethics controversies as he bid for re-election in Kentucky’s “off-year” 2007 contest. But Fletcher defeated Northup before losing to Democrat Steve Beshear in the general election, and the former congresswoman appeared likely to sit out the 2008 campaign.

But that changed when Erwin Roberts, a lawyer and former state official recruited by Republican strategists to challenge Yarmuth this year, learned just before the deadline that his U.S. Army Reserves unit was about to be called to active duty and dropped his plans to run. Lacking any other top-tier candidate, the GOP turned to Northup and prevailed upon her to make her comeback bid.

Nonetheless, even Yarmuth supporters play down a SurveyUSA poll released last week that showed the incumbent with a 17-point lead over Northup. “She is a strong opponent,” said Tim Longmeyer, the Jefferson County Democratic Party chairman. “You can’t count her out.”

Northup campaign spokesman Ted Jackson contended that Northup’s past House tenure puts her on equal footing with Yarmuth. “Anne held this seat for 10 years. Her name ID is greater,” Jackson said, describing the contest as a race of incumbents and adding, “It will come down to philosophical differences and personality.”

Jackson continued, “This is a race that will come down to who best represents the interests of this district.” When Northup was in office, he said, “We had a champion who worked very hard to see that Louisville got its fair share, now we have nothing. So, we are happy for the comparison with Yarmuth.”

Whatever political ground Northup has lost over the past couple of years, she continues to show strength as a campaign fundraiser. Though Yarmuth overall has raised more money, with $1.8 million in receipts to $1.5 million through Sept. 30, Northup outpaced him over the past two quarters. The candidates entered the final weeks of the campaign virtually tied in remaining cash on hand, with Northup reporting $764,000 and Yarmuth reporting $763,000.

Northup supporters hope the widespread unpopularity of the financial industry stabilization legislation — often described as the “bailout” bill — enacted early this month will inflict political damage on Yarmuth. The incumbent voted against the original version of the legislation, which the House defeated in late September, but supported the revised bill that passed.