CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Nov. 11, 2008 – 6:06 a.m.
Still Some Undecided Races, But Obama Gets Electoral Grace Note in Nebraska
By CQ Staff
The latest Election Day contest to be decided delivered one of the smallest prizes: President-elect Barack Obama has, by a narrow margin, claimed the one electoral vote accorded to the winner of the popular vote in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.
Since Obama had already been declared the winner of 364 electoral votes — 74 more than needed for victory over Republican opponent John McCain — the added vote from the Omaha area is similar to kicking an extra point in a football game in which your team already has secured a big win. But it is symbolic of the big gains for Obama over the performances of the Democratic presidential nominees who lost to George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, and also of his success at expanding the playing field in the campaign for an electoral vote majority.
Nebraska is one of just two states — Maine is the other — that does not automatically award all of its electoral votes to the statewide winner. Each state accords two votes to the statewide winner, and one vote apiece to the winner in each of the state’s congressional districts. Obama’s win for one of Nebraska’s five electoral votes is, however, the first time there has been a split decision. And it occurred because of Obama’s strategy of campaigning heavily in places his campaign viewed as winnable, even though many had been Republican presidential strongholds for years.
Along with Nebraska’s 2nd District — which favored Bush over Democrat John Kerry with 61 percent of its votes in 2004 — Obama has been confirmed the winner in nine states that went Republican for president four years ago: Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. And the contest in one more 2004 Bush state, Missouri, remains too close to call, although McCain holds a razor-thin lead in the current vote count. McCain, who currently totals 162 electoral votes from 21 states that he won, would bump up to 173 with a win in Missouri. If the final count flips Missouri Democratic, Obama — who already has claimed 28 states plus the District of Columbia — would round out to 376 electoral votes.
And Democrats, who already have secured hefty gains to expand their majorities in the U.S. Senate and House, also have to wait for final calls in several too-close-to-call races to determine just how big those gains will be.
It appears almost certain that the next shoe to drop will be in the House contest in Maryland’s 1st Congressional District, where Democrat Frank M. Kratovil Jr., a county prosecutor, holds a lead of roughly 2,150 votes over Republican state Sen. Andy Harris. Although this eastern Maryland district has long been favorable territory for the Republicans, Kratovil benefitted from a deep rift within GOP ranks that emerged from the Feb. 12 primary in which the strongly conservative Harris defeated moderate nine-term Republican incumbent Wayne T. Gilchrest .
With Friday’s concession by Democrat Darcy Burner, who lost narrowly in a rematch bid to unseat Republican Rep. Dave Reichert in Washington’s 8th District, a confirmed win for Kratovil would give the Democrats a lock on 255 seats and a net gain so far over the Republicans of 20 seats. Also still awaiting decision are Nov. 4 contests for Republican-held districts in Virginia’s 5th District, where the Democratic candidate is currently ahead, and in two districts, Ohio’s 15th and California’s 4th, where Republicans currently hold narrow leads.
And the final two general elections of the year will take place Dec. 6 in two Louisiana districts where the election calendar was thrown off by a hurricane that hit in early September and delayed the primary: the 2nd District, where Democratic Rep. William J. Jefferson is favored to defeat Republican lawyer Joseph Cao; and Louisiana’s 4th District, where Democratic prosecutor Paul J. Carmouche and Republican physician John Fleming are in a close race to succeed retiring Republican Rep. Jim McCrery .
Meanwhile, the Democrats’ big jump in the Senate is holding at six seats, with races for Republican-held seats in Alaska and Minnesota still awaiting final vote counts and the contest in Georgia apparently heading for a Dec. 2 runoff. The Democrats, who entered the elections with effective control over just 51 of the 100 seats, are assured of at least 57 when the 111th Congress begins — assuming the party refrains from evicting Connecticut Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman , the longtime Democrat-turned-independent, from their caucus as punishment for his strong endorsement of McCain over Obama in the presidential contest.
Here’s an overview of the races that remain uncalled as of late Monday:
• Missouri Presidential. McCain led Obama by 5,859 votes out of more than 2.9 million cast, a margin of two-tenths of one percentage point. There were about 7,000 provisional ballots and some scattered absentee ballots being vetted by local election officials before they certify their results to the state on Nov. 18. Though the outcome in Missouri will affect only the scope of Obama’s victory, a McCain win there would mark only the second time in the past 100 years that Missouri has not sided with the presidential election winner. It would mark the third consecutive election, and eighth in the past 11 dating to 1968, in which the state has gone Republican for president.
• Alaska Senate. The results from thousands of overseas absentee ballots and other uncounted votes will determine the final outcome in Alaska’s Senate race, in which Republican Sen. Ted Stevens led Democrat Mark Begich, mayor of Anchorage, by 48.08 to 46.61 percent. Stevens, whose 40-year tenure makes him the longest serving Republican in Senate history, is trying to hold his seat despite his late October conviction on seven federal counts of failing to report lavish gifts from business interests in Alaska. The Begich campaign on Monday estimated that about 90,000 ballots have been received and await counting. There is a 10-day window after Election Day for officials to receive absentee ballots mailed within the state and a 15-day window for overseas ballots. Begich’s staff, which said Alaska’s secretary of state plans to certify results Nov. 25, left open the possibility that they might seek a recount.
• Georgia Senate. Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss and Democratic challenger Jim Martin aren’t waiting for Georgia’s secretary of state to officially call for a Dec. 2 runoff, which would be required if Chambliss, as now appears likely, falls just short of the Nov. 4 majority needed to win outright. Both have resumed campaigning in advance of their expected showdown. With 99 percent of precincts reporting as of Monday, Chambliss, a first-term incumbent, held 49.8 percent of the vote, while Martin, a former state representative who ran for lieutenant governor in 2006, received 46.8 percent. County and state elections officials are expected to certify the results this week.
Still Some Undecided Races, But Obama Gets Electoral Grace Note in Nebraska
• Minnesota Senate. As of Monday afternoon, first-term Republican Sen. Norm Coleman led Democratic challenger Al Franken, a well-known comic entertainer, by just 206 votes of more than 2.4 million cast, as counties continue to complete their vote counts and send adjusted totals to the state elections board. Coleman has held the lead since the Election Night vote count, though his margin has been dwindling, and his advantage at the moment is one one-hundredth of one percentage point. A recount seems certain, given that state law calls for one to be automatically triggered if the separation between the candidates is less than one-half of one percentage point.
• California’s 4th District. Republican state Sen. Tom McClintock leads the protracted vote count in northeastern California’s 4th District where he and Democratic former Air Force Lt. Col. Charlie Brown are competing to succeed retiring nine-term Republican Rep. John T. Doolittle . On Monday, the vote count showed McClintock with a 970-vote lead over Brown, who in 2006 finished just three percentage points behind Doolittle in a district that usually is strongly Republican turf. Each candidate has expressed a desire to see that all provisional and absentee ballots are counted.
• Maryland’s 1st District. Democrat Kratovil’s lead, expanded from a few hundred votes on Election Night to more than 2,000 as absentee ballots were counted, prompting the Associated Press to call the race in his favor. But Kratovil, while expressing confidence in his situation, reacted cautiously to the news, and aides to Harris said their candidate would wait for additional provisional ballots and absentee ballots to be counted Monday before making a decision on how to proceed.
• Ohio’s 15th District. Republican state Sen. Steve Stivers continues to cling to a narrow lead, 149 votes at latest report, over Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy, a county commissioner, in a Columbus-centered district that Republican Rep. Deborah Pryce left open to retire after eight terms. Thousands of provisional ballots remain to be counted. This is Kilroy’s second consecutive run for the seat and the second in which the vote count went into overtime: Her challenge to Pryce in 2006 fell short by one-half of one percentage point.
• Virginia’s 5th District. Democrat Tom Perriello, an organizer of faith-based groups, has declared victory over six-term Republican Rep. Virgil H. Goode Jr. , who now trails by 745 votes out of nearly 317,000 cast in a district that includes Charlottesville and Danville. Goode, who is bidding for a seventh term, has not conceded the election and has cited “irregularities” in the vote count. Perriello’s current lead is 0.24 percentage points; Virginia law allows Goode to ask for a recount if he’s trailing by less than one percentage point after the state elections board certifies the race on Nov. 24. Goode would have until Dec. 4 to request a recount.




Comments
All the races from Alaska onward indicate a new and maybe long term realignment. This is most especially true in the South where Senator Webb of Virginia started a Democratic trend, and where the Obama campaign has gone on to big in-roads. Race a factor in the South, which brought largely Republican rule after LBJ may now take a hiatus and show Democrats in a rise.
A moment ago I posted a comment regarding The 44th congressional district race between (i) Ken Calvert and Bill Hedrick in California. That is another close race that I thought was the race referred to in the column. The race in the column that was referred to was the 4th dicstrict race which is also a very close race!
1. MO: The fact that indie contender Ralph Nader pulled off a NH/FL '00 (i.e. his vote tally greatly exceeding the R margin of victory) in this state is inexplicably omitted from this piece. 2. NE: It would be REALLY interesting to know the respective vote tallies for CD-02, and if, like MO, IN, and NC, a non-major party contender may have had a so-called spoiler effect.
The Nebraska District did have votes for Nader over the margin between Obama and McCain. Nader actually had more votes in the other two Districts. Barr's number in Omaha was less than half of the Obama margin over McCain. In Missouri the Barr total is a little over twice the difference whereas Nader's vote is about 3 1/2 times the current margin of just under 5,000 votes which has actually increased slightly for McCain from its closest point. I suspect all the votes from KC and St. Louis are probably in by now.
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