CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Nov. 11, 2008 – 11:16 a.m.
GOP Concession in Maryland Race Boosts Dems’ House Gain to 20
By Michael Teitelbaum, CQ Staff
The Democratic Party has officially gained another U.S. House seat, with the confirmed victory by county prosecutor Frank M. Kratovil Jr. in Maryland’s 1st Congressional District. State Sen. Andy Harris, the Republican nominee in the contest, conceded defeat Tuesday morning after nearly a week of absentee and provisional ballot counting left Kratovil with a firm lead of more than 2,000 votes.
The victory capped a remarkable rise for Kratovil, who entered the race as a distinct underdog in a conservative-leaning district — encompassing Maryland’s Eastern Shore region and pockets of suburban and exurban voters north and south of Baltimore across the Chesapeake Bay — that had been a stronghold for nine-term Republican Rep. Wayne T. Gilchrest . But Kratovil, who was aided by the national Democratic Party’s momentum throughout this election year, also benefitted enormously from a deep rift within Republican ranks resulting from the conservative Harris’ defeat of the more moderate Gilchrest in the district’s Feb. 12 primary.
Gilchrest and his loyalists were embittered by attacks from Harris and outside conservative groups, such as Club for Growth, that questioned his credentials as a Republican. And Kratovil soared into serious competition in early September when Gilchrest crossed party lines to endorse him to be his House successor.
Kratovil’s win — with 49 percent of the nearly complete vote count to 48.4 percent for Harris and 2.4 percent for Libertarian Party nominee Richard James Davis — guarantees that the Democrats will expand their House majority to at least 255 seats with a net gain of at least 20 seats that were held by the Republicans.
There still are five House contests that have not yet been decided. Three are close Nov. 4 general elections for Republican-held seats, in which votes still are being counted: one, in Virginia’s 5th District, in which the Democratic candidate currently leads, and two, in Ohio’s 15th District and California’s 4th District, in which the Republican candidates hold narrow leads.
There also are two general elections in Louisiana that are being held Dec. 6 because of delays resulting from an early September hurricane that forced a postponement of the state’s primary elections. The contest for a Republican seat in the 4th District is a highly competitive Democratic takeover bid; the other, in the overwhelmingly Democratic 2nd District, appears certain to stay in that party’s hands.
Barack Obama , the Democratic president-elect, also will be greeted at his Jan. 20 inaugural ceremonies by a greatly expanded Democratic caucus in the U.S. Senate. The Democrats already have secured a gain of six Republican-held seats, expanding their effective control from the current razor-thin majority of 51 seats to at least 57. Three races, all for Republican-held seats, remain undecided: in Alaska, where many ballots have yet to be counted; Minnesota, where the race is so close an automatic recount will be required; and Georgia, where it appears a Dec. 2 runoff election will be needed to decide the winner.
How Kratovil Won
Democratic Rep.-elect Kratovil had plenty of assistance — both intentional and unintentional — in the Maryland House race. Running in a district where President George W. Bush took 62 percent of the vote in 2004 and where Gilchrest was re-elected with 69 percent in 2006, Kratovil would have been a unlikely winner this year had the primary defeat of the incumbent not caused a rupture within the ranks of the local Republican Party. But he was lifted by significant aid provided by the national Democratic strategists and the state Democratic organization that dominates Maryland’s politics, which sensed opportunity in Maryland 1 and elevated the race there into one of their top-priority takeover bids.
Kratovil received strong backing from a party leadership that include Gov. Martin O’Malley; 5th District Rep. Steny H. Hoyer , the House majority leader; and 8th District Rep. Chris Van Hollen , who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), the campaign arm of the House Democratic caucus.
The DCCC doubled down on the contest by pouring nearly $1.9 million into independent expenditures, mainly for media advertising, to try to influence the race in favor of Kratovil. That helped the Democratic nominee overcome the advantage that Harris held as Oct. 15 in direct campaign contributions to the candidates — $2.9 million to $1.8 million for Kratovil — although Harris had to spend much of that money very early this year in his primary campaign against Gilchrest.
Kratovil’s win gives Democrats seven of Maryland’s eight House seats to go with both Senate seats, the governor’s office and big majorities in the state legislature. Obama carried the state by a near-landslide margin, and while he trailed Republican John McCain in the 1st District, the margin was not nearly as wide as in the 2004 presidential races.
GOP Concession in Maryland Race Boosts Dems’ House Gain to 20
Still, the very narrow numbers by which Kratovil defeated Harris underscore that this was in no way easy. Harris, an anesthesiologist who lives in Baltimore County on the west side of the bay, ran on a conservative platform that he said reflected the political orientation of most district residents. He ran on his opposition to abortion, his calls to permanently extend tax cuts enacted under Bush in 2001 and 2003 and to cut federal government spending, and his support for increased domestic drilling for energy resources, including offshore and in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. His ads claimed Kratovil is a liberal who supports tax increases, tying him on that issue to O’Malley, who as governor pushed through increases in sales and income taxes last year to address a state fiscal shortfall.
Harris received early support for his campaign from former one-term Republican Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr., who O’Malley unseated in 2006. Harris also was backed in making his arguments by Club for Growth, a national organization of conservative activists that focuses on economic issues, and its political action committee, which combined for more than $450,000 in independent expenditures in the 1st District general election and roughly $677,000 in the primary.
Kratovil, who accused Harris of lying about him in his campaign ads, countered by portraying himself as a fiscal conservative whose stances on economic issues earned him the endorsement of the Blue Dog Coalition, a group of center-right House Democrats. The winner of two terms as state’s attorney, a position equivalent to chief prosecutor, in Queen Anne’s County on the Eastern Shore, Kratovil also hews to the conservative side on some social issues: His support for gun owners’ rights earned him a top rating from the National Rifle Association. But Kratovil, like most Democratic candidates nationwide, favors abortion rights and is similar to others in his party on environmental and energy issues, opposing drilling for oil in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and supporting increased fuel economy standards for cars.
Kratovil led Harris in every county in the Eastern Shore region, though they are mostly small in population. He also won the politically competitive area of Cecil County in northeastern Maryland. Harris kept it close by winning big in the widely separated parts of the district west of bay, specifically in Baltimore County, his home base, and neighboring Harford County. He also won in the district’s segment of Anne Arundel County, but not by the margin that most political experts expected given the usually strong conservative leanings of voters in those precincts.




Comments
These 2 had the worst TV ads ever. Their ads were so negative and repetitive, I used to try to change channels. Worse, they weren't running in my district. And they should be happy they weren't. If this is how these 2 conduct business, neither of them deserves to be in Congress.
This result was very similar to Roscoe Bartlett winning MD-6 in 1992. The conservative democratic incumbant, Beverly Byron, was defeated by a more liberal democrat Thomas Hatterly in the primary, and conservative democrats swung the general election to Bartlett.
Just wanted to let you know that the close race in California is actually the 44th district held by one of the top twenty most corrupted representatives in Congress Ken Calvert. It is a close race between Him and the Democratic nominee Bill Hedrick. A couple of local newspapers gave the race to Calvert early on but then had to retract their story when pressure forced them to admit that there were still thousands of absentee and provisional ballots left to be counted. Of course Calvert is trying hard to stop the counting and declare himself the winner which he did the day after the elections were held, but then he also had to retract his statement. The race is still too close to call at this point!
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