CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
– POLITICS
Feb. 12, 2009 – 6:52 p.m.
Democrats’ Senate Campaign Chief Voices Early Optimism
By Greg Giroux, CQ Staff
New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez — the Democratic Party’s top Senate campaign strategist for the 2010 elections — said Thursday that his party was “energized” early in an election cycle in which voters will evaluate Democratic control of the White House and Congress.
Menendez, who held his first press conference as chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), said this “is going to be a good cycle for Democrats,” who are defending 17 seats that are up for election in 2010 to 19 for the Republicans.
“We are very optimistic about the prospects in this cycle,” Menendez said.
Menendez has a tough act to follow in New York Sen. Charles E. Schumer , who headed the DSCC during the 2006 cycle, when Democrats gained six seats to claim a narrow Senate majority, and during the 2008 cycle, when the party gained at least seven more seats (pending the outcome in the disputed Minnesota election, which is now under litigation).
But Menendez — a former seven-term House member who was first appointed to the Senate in January 2006 and was elected to a full term that November — inherits from Schumer a committee that has been hitting on all cylinders in the crucial areas of candidate recruitment, fundraising and campaign organizing.
Menendez’s early bullishness about the upcoming elections owed in part to early announcements by five Republican senators that they would not run to defend their seats next year: Mel Martinez of Florida; Sam Brownback of Kansas; Christopher S. Bond of Missouri; George V. Voinovich of Ohio; and Judd Gregg of New Hampshire, who had been nominated to become President Obama’s Commerce secretary. Gregg unexpectedly withdrew his Cabinet nomination later Thursday and said he would finish his Senate term, but added that he would not run for re-election.
Menendez noted that every Democratic senator facing a regularly scheduled election in 2010 will seek re-election next year. The party’s only open seat will be that of appointed Delaware Sen. Ted Kaufman , who was appointed to fill the seat that Democrat Joseph R. Biden Jr. vacated to become vice president.
Kaufman said immediately that he would not run in the November 2010 special election to fill the remaining four years of Biden’s unexpired term. This fueled speculation that he had volunteered to be a “placeholder” for Biden’s son Beau, the state Attorney General, who is now on a tour of duty in Iraq with the Delaware Army National Guard.
With the 2010 elections still 21 months away, Menendez didn’t specify a range of possible Democratic gains. But he did note the importance of reaching 60 seats in the Senate, the threshold needed to break minority-party filibusters. The Democrats would need a net gain of one or two seats to reach 60 — depending on the outcome of the still-undecided 2008 Minnesota contest between Republican Norm Coleman, who ran as the incumbent, and Al Franken , the well-known comic entertainer who ran as the Democratic challenger.
The importance of a Senate “supermajority” was on display this week, when Democrats needed the assistance of three moderate Republican senators — Olympia J. Snowe and Susan Collins , both of Maine, and Arlen Specter , who is up for re-election in 2010 in usually Democratic-leaning Pennsylvania — to thwart a filibuster of a big-budget economic stimulus bill that Obama is laboring to push to congressional approval.
Though Specter’s reach across party lines was applauded by the White House and by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, Menendez cited Pennsylvania as one state in which he expects a strong Democratic challenger to emerge. Menendez also identified David Vitter of Louisiana, Richard M. Burr of North Carolina and Jim Bunning of Kentucky as examples of Republican senators who say they will seek re-election and would face determined Democratic opposition if they do.
“I’m sure that President Obama and those who advise him politically clearly understand the value of finally getting over 60 votes in the United States Senate, after what they have gone through,” Menendez said. “And we will make collective judgments as to how to best achieve that.”
Among the five states in which Republican senators are not seeking re-election, the race in Missouri has already developed into a near-certain showdown between Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, a member of the state’s preeminent Democratic political family, and Rep. Roy Blunt , a former House Republican whip.
Menendez singled out Carnahan, who announced her candidacy last week, as an “incredibly strong candidate.” Her father, Mel Carnahan, was a two-term governor who was elected posthumously to the Senate in 2000 after he died in a campaign plane crash. Her mother, Jean Carnahan, served two years as the interim appointee to that Senate seat. Her brother, Russ Carnahan , is the third term representative of Missouri’s 3rd Congressional District.
Menendez also praised New Hampshire Rep. Paul W. Hodes , who is seeking the seat that Gregg is not defending.
The Democrats, though, will have some potential trouble spots, most of them seats now held by senators appointed to fill vacancies that spun off from Illinois Sen. Barack Obama ’s election as president last November.
Roland W. Burris of Illinois, who filled the seat Obama vacated to become president, and Michael F. Bennet of Colorado, who succeeded Democrat Ken Salazar upon his confirmation as Obama’s Interior secretary, will be targeted by the Republicans. Kirsten E. Gillibrand, the House incumbent who took over for Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton after the latter became secretary of State, also may face competition in New York, even though that state has become a Democratic stronghold in recent years.
Gillibrand plans to run in the 2010 special election to fill the remaining two years of Clinton’s term. Bennet, a former Denver schools chief whose home state is Democratic-trending but still highly competitive, will run in that year’s regularly scheduled election. Burris — who accepted a controversial appointment from then-Gov. Rod R. Blagojevich , who was later expelled by the state legislature on charges of corruption and abuse of power — has not yet said if he will be a candidate in next year’s regularly scheduled election, in a state that usually votes Democratic.
Republicans also are targeting Connecticut’s Christopher J. Dodd , chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, whose political standing has weakened following questions about his past mortgage deals with Countrywide Financial Corp. Dodd, who will be running for a sixth term, has denied receiving a sweetheart deal, and Menendez said that Dodd has been “open and transparent” about the issue and has “a great record to run on.” Former three-term Republican Rep. Rob Simmons, who lost a very close House race to Democrat Joe Courtney in 2006, is eyeing a challenge to Dodd.
Although the economy probably will still be struggling in November 2010, Menendez suggested that the voting public won’t blame Democrats at the polls for a recessionary situation that “can’t be improved overnight.”
“They understand what President Obama inherited,” Menendez said.




Comments
Why shouldn't he be optimistic, the GOP is surrendering. Five rats jumped off the sinking ship instead of fighting to help the rest bail the water out. They could net another 5 or 6 seats.
Dodd, Specter, Burris,and Gillibrand all would be somewhat more likely to lose in the primary than general, given their personal profiles and states' political dynamics. Also, Vitter and/or Bunning may yet stand down, if each determines that the support within their parties - the respective states and national high command in DC - are no more than perfunctory. As for Burr in NC, he has to be mindful of the fact that in modern times, only centre-right D Erwin and ultraright R Helms have managed to represent the state for any significant length of time. Whether he can shatter that Jinx (which may have spread into the Hagan-held seat as well) remains to be seen, of course.
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