CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
– POLITICS
March 10, 2009 – 12:08 a.m.
Two Get a Jump as Primary Battles Loom for Open Florida Seat
By Rachel Kapochunas, CQ Staff
Florida Republican Rep. Adam H. Putnam ’s decision to run for state agriculture commissioner in 2010 was unexpected, and it set up a possible free-for-all race for the 12th District seat he is leaving after five terms. So two serious candidates, one in each major party, have tried to get a jump on their potential competitors by launching their House campaigns early.
Nonetheless, the quick starts for Republican Dennis A. Ross, a former state representative, and Democrat Lori Edwards, the supervisor of elections in central Florida’s Polk County, do not necessarily preclude crowded primaries on both sides.
Ross has put on an impressive show of securing key support with 18 months to go until the August 2010 primary. He has endorsements from Jeb Bush, the state’s governor from 1999 to 2007 and brother of former President George W. Bush ; current Florida GOP Reps. Connie Mack , Ginny Brown-Waite , Jeff Miller and Gus Bilirakis ; and additional former and current Republican officeholders.
“I’ve got to show that I’m the odds-on favorite,” Ross told CQ Politics when asked if he was attempting to clear the primary field of serious competition. He added, “When Congressman Putnam made his announcement, it was important for me to do the same thing, because this is a 20-month marathon.”
Putnam announced in February that he will vie for the state agriculture post. He was just 33 years old in 2007 when he became chairman of the House Republican Conference, the party’s third-ranking leadership post. But his rise in the House was derailed by a leadership shake-up that followed major Republican losses in the 2006 and 2008 campaigns.
Putnam ran strongly at home — taking more than 57 percent even in the tough 2008 election year — while touting a consistently conservative House voting record. And Ross believes that his own conservative views are in line with those of Republican voters and even some Democrats in the 12th District, which takes in part of Hillsborough County near Tampa as well as most of Polk County farther inland.
“I think I’ll appeal to a broad base. I firmly do,” Ross said. “I’m not an extremist, I’m not a fanatic. I’ve got kids in public school here and I’m part of this community.”
But to have a shot at succeeding Putnam, Ross almost certainly would have to make it through a primary.
Among his possible opponents is Republican state Sen. Paula Dockery, with whom he says he has been friends for 20 years. “I talked to her three weeks ago and she did express that she was thinking about it, but that she would make her decision in May,” when the state legislative session is scheduled to conclude. Ross noted that he is forging ahead, regardless of Dockery’s decision.
On the Democratic side, usually the underdog in 12th District elections, members of the party establishment have begun rallying behind Edwards. “I wanted to make a strong statement, make it perfectly clear that I’m motivated and I’m ready to roll up my sleeves and work hard starting now to do this,” Edwards told CQ Politics about the early start to her campaign.
Edwards, who describes herself as a political moderate, served in the state legislature for eight years prior to her first election as county elections supervisor in 2000.
Edwards said she expects the Democratic field to become crowded, though. She already faces a comeback bid by Doug Tudor, a Navy veteran who took a bit less than 43 percent in the 2008 House race as the Democratic challenger to Putnam.
Tudor — whose long-shot bid last year was not a high priority for national or state Democratic strategists — contends that his showing was strong, considering that he was vastly outspent by incumbent Putnam.
Putnam spent more than $2 million from his campaign treasury during the 2008 election cycle. Even after subtracting out the $800,000 that he donated to other Republican candidates or party committees, he had an edge of roughly 10-to-1 over Tudor, whose $122,000 in campaign expenditures included $25,000 of his own money.
The two parties see the 12th District through very different prisms. Republicans cast the district as strong GOP territory, pointing to Putnam’s showings and the 58 percent vote share President Bush received in 2004.
“That’s a Republican seat, so I’m confident that we’re going to be able to keep that,” said Jim Greer, chairman of the Florida Republican Party, during a recent phone interview with CQ Politics.
Economic Impact?
But the strong statewide grass-roots organizing effort that boosted Democrat Barack Obama to a key 2008 presidential victory in Florida also cut deeply into the typical Republican margin in the 12th District. Republican presidential nominee John McCain took just 50 percent of the district vote to 49 percent for Obama, according to an exclusive CQ Politics analysis of the presidential vote by congressional district.
Even Putnam, while he won re-election easily, saw his vote share slip by nearly 12 points from the 69 percent he ran up in 2006.
The Democrats have a modest base among minority voters who tend to lean strongly to the party: the 2000 census showed blacks made up 13 percent of district residents and Hispanics made up 12 percent.
Democratic pollster Dave Beattie suggested, though, that the nation’s economic recession, which has been sharply felt in parts of Florida, has caused the political ground to shift even among the conservative-leaning 72 percent white majority in the district.
Beattie said he believes many district voters sided with Republicans in the past on tax-related issues, but the economic downturn prompted many to vote for Obama in November.
“The district is one of those ones that’s changed a little more over the last couple years because of the economic and housing impact compared to some other places” in Florida, Beattie said.
Beattie said the possibility of a competitive general election contest in 2010 will hinge on the caliber of candidates.
When asked to assess Edwards, Beattie noted that her local ties to Polk County are likely to help her in a campaign. “The geographic tie, the fact that she’s won an election there in the place where the most Democrats are and also where 64 percent of all the votes in the last election came from that county,” would be helpful against any opponent, he said.




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