CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
– POLITICS
March 19, 2009 – 3:30 p.m.
Field Forming for Rep. Tauscher’s California Seat
By Rachel Kapochunas, CQ Staff
Democratic Rep. Ellen O. Tauscher confirmed just Wednesday that she has been offered a high-level State Department post in the Obama administration — and prospective candidates already are stepping in or taking themselves out of contention to succeed her in California’s 10th District seat.
According to one local Democratic Party official, state Assemblyman Tom Torlakson will not be a candidate for the pending special election in the 10th District, which includes cities such as Fairfield, Antioch, Livermore and part of Concord in the East Bay suburbs of San Francisco.
Chuck Carpenter, the Democratic Party chairman in Contra Costa County — which includes most of the 10th District’s population — told CQ Politics Thursday that Torlakson told him he would remain in the race he has already launched for state superintendent of public instruction, which would put him in charge of California’s school system.
Torlakson could not immediately be reached directly for comment.
Torlakson’s decision not to run for the House does not preclude a competitive multi-candidate race for the Democratic nomination, which is likely to be decisive in a strongly Democratic-leaning district that gave 65 percent of its 2008 presidential vote to Barack Obama .
Carpenter said two well-known regional Democratic officeholders, state Sen. Mark DeSaulnier and state Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan, have expressed interest in the seat.
Many state lawmakers are likely to consider running, given the term limits placed on them by state election law. “An open seat like this is a big opportunity to move on and especially into Congress where of course there are not term limits,” said Henry E. Brady, a political scientist at the University of California at Berkeley.
Any candidate activity is just positioning for now, as the seat will not become vacant unless and until Tauscher — elected last November to a seventh House term — is confirmed by the Senate to be undersecretary of State for arms control and international security.
Tauscher is a Democratic moderate who has focused strongly on defense and foreign policy issues and currently serves as chairwoman of the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces. She has drawn no major flak since her nomination was revealed Wednesday.
Should Tauscher vacate her House seat, Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger would call a special election in which candidates of all parties would run on a single ballot. If one candidate receives a majority in the primary, he or she would be declared the outright winner. In the absence of a majority winner in the primary, the top vote-getter in each party would advance to a special general election.
Republicans don’t have a deep bench of elected officials in this district. One whose name has been floated as a possible House candidate is San Ramon Mayor H. Abram Wilson, who lost a bid for state Assembly last fall.
But GOP strategist Tim Clark said his party should be able to produce a serious candidate. He said he believes self-funding Republicans, possibly technology-industry millionaires, are most likely to dominate the GOP field.
“I’ve been contacted by no less than three self-funded Republicans in the last six years who wanted to look at that seat,” Clark said. He declined to offer names, saying he would need to speak with the individuals involved before divulging that information.
Voting patterns in recent elections show Republicans are at a disadvantage in the district. Obama outran Republican John McCain by a 32 percentage-point margin, according to an exclusive CQ Politics analysis of presidential votes by congressional district, and Tauscher regularly cruised to easy House re-election victories.
Carpenter said the Democrats will build on the phone-banking and other grass-roots operations put in place for Obama’s presidential campaign. “It’s close enough to November that people are still ready to go,” Carpenter said.
But Brady warned that winning the district will take more than a Democratic Party label.
“It’s a conservative Democratic district,” Brady said, adding, “A moderate Republican could have a chance.” Brady suggested that a successful Democratic candidate for the district seat could be liberal on social issues but should be appealing to Republicans on economic issues.
Carpenter agreed that a “moderate Democrat” would be most successful in the district.
Tauscher fit that political model. A former Wall Street investment banker who moved to northern California 20 years ago, she chairs the New Democrat Coalition, a group of centrist congressional Democrats. The San Francisco Chronicle once described her as “about the closest thing the Bay Area has to a Republican.”
Clark conceded that voter registration works against his party in the 10th. But, he added, he believes angst among Republicans aimed at Obama and his administration could unite them and drive them to the polls. “With a special election low turnout and a self-funded Republican, we might have a shot,” he said.




Comments
California--the epitome of Sanctuary cities, given to us by open border Mayor Antonio Villigrossa and Sen Dianne Feinstein has permitted residents to be overwhelmed by 4 million illegal aliens. My sons school, before I left the once Golden state, was 80 percent foreign nationals, with the majority unable to converse in English. California once had high marks for its recognition in outstanding academic performance. Now it has descended to almost the bottom of the educational pile. Just in the Anaheim school district alone, the estimated costs for educating the children of illegal aliens is $30 million. Over 2/3 of all births in Los Angeles County are to illegal alien on Medi-Cal, whose births are paid for by taxpayers. Nearly 60% of all occupants of HUD properties are illegal. Less than 2% of illegal aliens are picking our crops, but 29% are on welfare or have stolen good paying jobs from legal residents. Nationwide the costs for underwriting illegal immigration is more than a trillion dollars. Read more at NUMBERSUSA, JUDICIALWATCH, CAPSWEB Now governor Schwarzenegger and the Liberal Democrat assembly have decided that they need for--YOU--to pay more state taxes. This is because of the near 47 billion dollar bankruptcy. Our friends in Washington in collusion with big business and open border fanatics, made a massive blunder when they thought they had secretly erased in a closed committee hearing E-Verify. It's still has a pulse until September and pro-illegal immigrant Speaker Pelosi isn't happy. CALL--ICE--1-866-DHS-2-ICE (1-866-347-2423) inform them of illegal activity in the workplace. THEY CANNOT DO IT ALONE!
This district was gerrymandered in 2002---fahgetaboudit!
POST A COMMENT
Oops! The following errors must be addressed: