CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
– POLITICS
April 28, 2009 – 1:35 p.m.
Specter’s Shift Transforms 2010 Outlook in Pennsylvania
By Greg Giroux, CQ Staff
The bombshell announcement by Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter that he will leave the Republican Party and seek re-election as a Democrat dramatically reshapes the 2010 Senate race in his state.
In shedding his longtime party label, Specter has decided to avoid a potentially disastrous rematch in the Republican primary against former Rep. Patrick J. Toomey, a conservative who nearly defeated Specter in 2004 and who has led the senator in early polls of Republican voters.
As a result of Specter’s decision to run as a Democrat, CQ Politics is changing its rating of the Pennsylvania Senate race to “Leans Democratic” from the tossup category, “No Clear Favorite.”
Democratic officials had talked earlier this year about fielding a competitive challenger to Specter next year, but are now expected to back his bid for a sixth term.
National Democratic luminaries, including President Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, have made it clear they support Specter. White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said Obama will raise money for or campaign with Specter if asked, and Specter said that Reid and Pennsylvania Democratic Gov. Edward G. Rendell will assist his campaign.
New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez , who heads the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said in a statement that he told Specter “that I look forward to supporting him and making sure this seat stays Democratic in November of 2010.”
Should Specter secure the Democratic nomination, he would still square off with Toomey — only this time in a general election that would be more favorable to Specter than a primary election dominated by conservatives.
“What would have been a clear advantage for Pat Toomey in a head-to-head with Specter in a GOP primary is turned on its head when we come to the general electorate,” said Christopher Borick, a political scientist at Muhlenberg College in Allentown, adding that there are 1.2 million more registered Democrats than Republicans in Pennsylvania.
Still, it’s not clear to what degree the Democratic rank-and-file faithful will rally behind Specter as their candidate after having sparred with him for decades as a political adversary.
Specter last month disappointed labor unions, which are influential in Pennsylvania politics, in announcing his opposition to a measure designed to ease union organizing, commonly known as the “card check” bill. Specter has long been seen as more sympathetic to organized labor than most Republican senators.
The only Democratic candidate who entered the Senate race prior to Specter’s announcement is Joe Torsella, a former deputy mayor of Philadelphia who headed the National Constitution Center on the city’s Independence Mall.
Torsella, whose wife once worked for Specter on the Senate Judiciary Committee when the incumbent was its chairman, said in a statement that “nothing about today’s news regarding Sen. Specter changes ... my intention to run for the Democratic nomination to the Senate in 2010 — an election that is still a full year away.”
Democratic state Rep. Josh Shapiro, who had been weighing a Senate campaign, told the political Web site PoliticsPA that he would not run, saying Specter “is now the incumbent Democratic senator.”
Democratic Sen. Bob Casey , Specter’s home-state colleague, said it is too early to tell if Democratic primary voters will embrace Specter.
“That remains to be seen,” he said. “I can’t make a prediction about that. This is uncharted waters.”
Asked if he thought the Democratic primary field would be cleared for Specter, Casey replied, “I would like to ensure that we take steps so that in January 2011 we have two Democratic senators from Pennsylvania, whatever route that takes. I think we’ve shown an ability in the recent past to come together fairly early.”
Former Rep. Joseph M. Hoeffel (1999-2005), who was Specter’s Democratic opponent in 2004, said there will be some Democrats who won’t be thrilled with Specter’s switch. But, Hoeffel added, “The bottom line is, I don’t think there will be a competitive Democratic primary now.”
Wearing a new party label after nearly 30 years in the Senate, Specter will have to persuade Pennsylvania Democrats that his party switch is sincere — and not, as Republican strategists allege, a desperate move attributed to his big early deficit to Toomey in GOP primary polls.
Michael Steele, chairman of the Republican National Committee and a former lieutenant governor in the neighboring state of Maryland, said in a biting statement: “Let’s be honest — Sen. Specter didn’t leave the GOP based on principles of any kind. He left to further his personal political interests because he knew that he was going to lose a Republican primary due to his left-wing voting record.”
Steele added, “Republicans look forward to beating Sen. Specter in 2010, assuming the Democrats don’t do it first” in their primary.
A similar blast was issued by Texas Sen. John Cornyn , who is heading his party’s national Senate campaign effort for the 2010 cycle as chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “Sen. Specter’s decision today represents the height of political self-preservation. While this presents a short-term disappointment, voters next year will have a clear choice to cast their ballots for a potentially unbridled Democrat super-majority vs. the system of checks-and-balances that Americans deserve,” Cornyn said.
Specter himself acknowledged that recent polls of Republican voters told him “the prospects for winning a Republican primary are bleak.” He noted that many registered Republicans last year switched their party affiliation to Democratic so that they could participate in the that party’s presidential primary between Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton , then a senator from New York and now secretary of State in Obama’s administration.
New York Sen. Charles E. Schumer , who headed the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in the 2006 and 2008 election cycles, said Specter is “very popular in Pennsylvania” and that he expected the senator would win re-election.
“In fact, his greatest problem in terms of popularity has always been in the Republican primary, which obviously he won’t have to go through,” Schumer said. “You never take anything for granted. But I would suspect that Arlen Specter is going to be re-elected by a wide margin as a Democrat in Pennsylvania.”
Specter does have the campaign cash to begin a long campaign of courting Democratic voters. He had $6.7 million cash-on-hand as April began, according to a recent campaign report.
Bart Jansen and Adriel Bettelheim contributed to this story.
Comments
There's NO WAY organized labor is going to let Specter win the D nomination. When he loses the primary, only then will justice be served on this most despicable excuse for a "statesman" (LOL).
Only "Leans D"? Moreover, a Specter-Toomey general match-up is far from a foregone conclusion, for Toomey still faces challenge by perennial statewide contender Peg Luksik, and hyper-partisans of his new (actually old, since until around 1965-66 he was a Democrat!) adopted party are wont to bring up "Card Check," "Partial-Birth Ban," "Anita Hill," and whatnot!
Specter knows the truth about JFK, maybe in return for allowing him to join a viable party, somebody should ask him to tell?
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