CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Aug. 9, 2009 – 11:22 p.m.
Chafee On Ballot Would Complicate Rhode Island Race
By Emma Dumain, CQ Staff
Rhode Island, a state known for its idiosyncrasies in voting, may elect its first independent governor next year.
If former Sen. Lincoln Chafee, who now has no party affiliation, gets in the race, campaign strategy will become more complicated for both Democrats and Republicans.
Chafee enjoyed some popularity as a Republican — in a state that usually elects Democrats to the House and the Senate — by voters who had shown years of loyalty to another Republican: his father, four-term Sen. John H. Chafee, who died in 1999.
The younger Chafee was appointed to complete his father’s Senate term, then won a full six-year term in 2000.
A moderate who often split from his GOP colleagues on such issues as reproductive rights and the Iraq War, he enjoyed healthy approval ratings, but got swept up in the anti-Republican sentiment of the 2006 midterm elections and lost to Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse.
Shortly thereafter, Chafee left the Republican Party.
“It’s not my party anymore,” he said at the time.
Now, coming off two years as a fellow at Brown University’s Thomas J. Watson Jr. Institute for International Studies, Chafee, 56, is preparing a run for governor that will capitalize both on his continued likability in Rhode Island and on the overall decline of the national Republican brand. He will also offer an alternative to the state’s practice in recent years of electing a Republican as governor while the rest of the state’s offices go to Democrats.
He has begun raising money, but not on a large scale — $133,000 in the second quarter of 2009 — and still calls his campaign in the “exploratory phase.” But short of a dramatic change in the political landscape, he expects to make a formal announcement of his candidacy in the fall.
Chafee’s success or failure in 2010 could determine the strength of the Republican Party in Rhode Island. It will also reflect on the viability of a third-party candidate seeking the governor’s office in a state where nearly half the registered voters are not affiliated with either political party. A Chafee victory might even say something about the future of third-party candidates on a national scale.
A ‘Check’ Against Democrats
The governor’s office has been the anomaly of Rhode Island politics, with Republicans winning it in seven of the past nine elections. But the state’s usual Democratic colors are evident in Barack Obama ’s 2008 win with 63 percent of the vote — the party’s sixth straight win in presidential elections — and the Democrats’ hold on both U.S. Senate seats, both House seats and the vast majority of seats in the state legislature.
“The voters have, I think, consistently seen a need to put a check in place against the Democratic supermajority,” state Republican Party chairman Gio Cicione offered as an explanation.
If Rhode Islanders really do tend to favor a check against the dominant Democratic presence in local politics, then Chafee could be the alternative.
“I think the Republican Party is less viable here than it once was, and an independent candidate like Linc Chafee represents a real check to electing another Democrat to the governor’s office,” said Chafee’s campaign manager, James DeRentis.
The outlook for a Chafee candidacy in 2010 is also good in light of Rhode Islanders’ independent streak: According to the Rhode Island Board of Elections, as of June 2009, unaffiliated voters constituted 48 percent of registered voters in June 2009. Registered Democrats make up 42 percent, while Republicans count for only 10 percent.
“I would say the independents are the majority party in Rhode Island,” Chafee told CQ Politics. “That majority has been increasing every year as more and more people want to be free to vote in either primary. . . . They see the statute of the ‘Independent Man’ atop the State House’s marble dome as their symbol.”
Political observers on the ground, however, predict that this campaign might be more about issues and less about party identification. How each candidate would address the state’s economic crisis, for instance — Rhode Island’s 12.4 percent unemployment rate is the second-highest in the country — might determine the victor.
“Because the economy is in such poor shape here, people are going to be voting based on leadership and solutions. And I think the candidate that makes the best case about how he can help solve these problems and put the state on right track is the one who will get the vote,” DeRentis said.
Chafee noted, though, that the political climate is such that an independent candidate like himself might benefit.
“The difficulties and challenges we face are such that we can’t afford to have political squabbling — there’s too much of that already,” he said, alluding to the frequent clashes between members of the two major parties. “It’s going to be an asset for me, someone who is not affiliated with either party.”
Ron Rapoport, a professor of government at the College of William and Mary who has written extensively on third-party candidates, agrees with Chafee, within reason.
“I don’t think he can win this on his own,” he said. “The dynamic of the campaign has to be one that is positive for him, such as if the Democratic and the Republican candidates are going after each other hammer and tongs. . . . If he can set himself apart from that, and offer an alterative to that, that will help him.”
What Are the Odds?
Issues versus party politics aside, the presence of a “legitimate” third-party candidate significantly changes the pace of the election season. In years past, the contest for the governor’s seat has centered on the back-and-forth between the Democratic and Republican nominees. In 2010, Chafee is likely to shift the center of the debate.
This will be the case especially if the Republicans cannot promote a strong candidate to take on both a formidable independent and either of the two well-known Democrats who appear ready to run — Attorney General Patrick Lynch and Treasurer Frank Caprio.
State Rep. Joe Trillo, meanwhile, is the only Republican so far to express sincere interest in the race. But many agree that he does not have the name recognition, the financial cushion or the support he needs to be a formidable opponent.
Unless a strong Republican candidate comes along, the race could come down to the Democratic nominee and Chafee.
“His win would be idiosyncratic to him, because people like him and what he stands for, because he’s better known and likely to be better funded than independent candidates who have run here in the past,” said Darrell West, director of governance studies at the Brookings Institution and a former professor of politics at Brown. “Generally, you’ve never heard of them, and they haven’t come from the political mainstream.”
Dean Lacy, a Dartmouth College professor of government who studies third-party campaigns, said he believed that Chafee’s success would mean something for independent candidates in a larger context.
“There have been enough idiosyncratic third-party victories recently that suggests that there is viability for third-party candidates anywhere,” he said, recalling the triumphs of three independents — Maine Gov. Angus King (1995-2003), Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura (1999-2003), and Connecticut Gov. Lowell Weicker Jr. (1991-1995) — over the last two decades. “As the two major parties move towards extremes, there’s a chance for someone like Chafee to move into the middle.”
CQ Politics rates the general election race a Tossup.
Comments
Can someone tell me why Linc Chafee doesn't like the Dem Party? On what issues does he NOT agree with in their platform?
Lincoln Chafee's enduring legacy is one of incoherence, in speech and principles, i.e., he's one of the dumbest senators ever. But he loves that gravy train. Look for him to read as many speeches written for him as possible to "complicate" the race.
Linc Chafee doesn't stand a snowball's chance of winning. He likes to blame his last loss on the Repubs, but the fact is that his loss was HIS OWN to wear. He had no message except, "I'm John's son, and part of the band of 14"! We don't need him telling us how much he's NOT a GOP member, doesn't carry water for the Dems, we actually need someone to rally the people of RI to throw out ALL GA members and Chafee AIN'T IT!!
I covered the 2006 Senate race in Rhode Island for one of the local news radio stations in Providence and have a decent understanding of politics in the Ocean State. One thing this article has missed is the potential candidacy of Arlene Violet on the GOP ticket. If this former AG and talk show host runs, you can bet everything goes up in the air and it turns into anybody's race - split three ways between the Democratic candidate, Chafee, and Violet. Great analysis in this article though! Tim Staskiewicz Washington Correspondent White House Brief on iheartradio http://www.iheartradio.com/whblive
Tho' not a citizen of RI, I've watched Sen. Whitehouse take part in a number of panels. I must say, I am very impressed. If he ran in my state I would be quite amenable to voting for him.
The idea of independent candidates is making a resurgence across the country. An independent candidate is considered more and more these days as a bridge-builder past pary issues. They get the job done. Take the example of Trevor Drown from arkansas, His recent announcment for US Senate has garnered an overwhelming level of support from many Arkansans, not only because of his stance on issues but also the lack of confidence in the Democratic party and the level of incompetence of the Republican party. This upcomming electionn will find many independents in office.
POST A COMMENT
Oops! The following errors must be addressed: