By Tim Starks, CQ Staff

Democratic leaders Monday seized on a new U.S. intelligence estimate of Iran’s nuclear program, saying it strengthened the case for continued U.S. diplomacy rather than a policy of military confrontation.

The National Intelligence Estimate, or NIE, said Iran had halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and would not be able to produce enough enriched uranium to develop a weapon until between 2010 and 2015.

The assessment, key judgments of which were released Monday by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, differs from a 2005 estimate that stated with “high confidence” that Iran was determined to develop nuclear weapons and would be able to develop one early in the next decade.

“Our assessment that the program probably was halted primarily in response to international pressure suggests Iran may be more vulnerable to influence on the issue than we judged previously,” the summary said.

Democrats said the document showed the value of diplomatic pressure on Iran. Many Democrats have warned that President Bush and his aides have overstated the threat posed by Iran in a march toward war resembling the run-up to the Iraq invasion in 2003.

“I hope this administration reads this report carefully and appropriately adjusts its rhetoric and policy vis-? -vis Iran,” said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid , D-Nev. “The administration should begin this process by finally undertaking a diplomatic surge necessary to effectively address the challenges posed by Iran.”

Senate Intelligence Chairman John D. Rockefeller IV , D-W.Va., said the NIE offered two pieces of good news: That the intelligence community had learned its lessons from Iraq and was willing to challenge its own assumptions, and that diplomacy could work.

“The key judgments show that the intelligence community has learned its lessons from the Iraq debacle,” he said in a statement. “This NIE is also strong evidence that diplomacy, when given a chance, can have an effect even with seemingly intractable regimes.”

Silvestre Reyes , D-Texas, chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, said the document “indicates that Iran may be responsive to the international pressure it has received as a result of its flagrant refusal to adhere to [U.N.] Security Council resolutions.”

Reyes urged Bush to pursue a “clear-eyed, serious diplomatic effort, with both carrots and sticks, to prevent Iran from restarting its nuclear weapons program.”

Iran says its nuclear programs are peaceful, intended only to generate nuclear power. It denies that it is developing nuclear weapons.

Hadley Praises Report

National security adviser Stephen J. Hadley hailed the report’s conclusions as proof that the White House policy toward Iran is working.

“It confirms that we were right to be worried about Iran seeking to develop nuclear weapons,” Hadley said. “It tells us that we have made progress in trying to ensure that this does not happen.”

The Bush administration is now trying to persuade the U.N. Security Council to pass a third sanctions resolution against Iran. Two earlier rounds of international sanctions have not dissuaded Iran to abandon its nuclear program.

At a conference last month, Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell said he would not publicly disclose the NIE’s key judgments on Iran. But a senior intelligence official said McConnell decided to release it because “it has become part of the public policy dialogue about Iran.”

Litany of Congressional Sanctions

Congress has taken several actions against Iran this year.

The House passed a bill (HR 1400) on Sept. 25 to bar all imports from Iran and expand curbs on exports. The legislation, sponsored by Tom Lantos , D-Calif., chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, was the toughest in a series of House-passed bills targeting Iran’s nuclear program and its sponsorship of groups on the U.S. list of terrorist organizations.

The Senate voted, 76-22, on Sept. 26 for a non-binding amendment to the fiscal 2008 defense authorization bill (HR 1585) expressing its view that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps should be designated a terrorist organization. The administration on Oct. 25 named the organization as a weapons proliferator and its Quds Force as a terrorist group and sanctioned Iranian banks and companies suspected of aiding those activities.

In early November, 29 Democratic senators and one independent wrote Bush, expressing concern about the administration’s approach to Iran and stressing that Congress has not approved military action against that country.