CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Aug. 30, 2008 – 2:06 a.m.
Analysis: McCain Had Two Messages to Send with Choice of Palin
By Jonathan Allen, CQ Staff
There’s plenty of time for voters to get to know Sarah Palin and decide whether John McCain ’s pick of a vice presidential running mate was wild or wise.
For now, the decision sends two clear messages from McCain about his candidacy and message of reform -- one to the Republican Party and one to the general electorate.
In picking Palin, who has battled officials in her own party (she defeated fellow Republican Gov. Frank Murkowski, a state political fixture, in the 2006 primary), McCain signaled to Republicans that he intends to clean up the image of a party brand muddied by President Bush’s lack of popularity and scandals at the federal and state levels.
He and Palin both have records of bucking the GOP establishment -- including Palin knocking out the sitting Republican governor, Frank Murkowski, in a 2006 primary -- and they might push for a realignment of the Republican Party at the convention and during the election’s stretch run.
For the broader electorate, McCain is pivoting from a campaign that was focused primarily on his experience and national security credentials to one that emphasizes government reform as a central theme. National security isn’t going away, but McCain won’t be a Johnny one-note.
While Democratic nominee Barack Obama makes his case for change, McCain will call for reform – a change without switching parties.
Polls show that McCain holds a significant lead over Obama on national security and foreign policy issues. But a week after Barack Obama shored up his ticket’s security credentials by picking Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Joe Biden as his running mate, McCain appears to believe it is more important for him to compete on Obama’s change turf than to fight on national security.
That may be a reflection of confidence on McCain’s part that he will retain a national security edge over Obama throughout the campaign and should expand from that base, or it could indicate that he believes Obama’s more aggressive efforts to build national security credibility make it imperative for him to have another major pillar supporting his campaign. It’s probably a little bit of both.
Democrats are assailing the choice of Palin as proof that McCain’s national security judgment is suspect. They ask: Why, if experience is as important in foreign policy matters as McCain says, would he put someone with none of it a heartbeat from the presidency?
The counterargument is that McCain has enough experience for both spots on the ticket, that he plans to live for the next four years – no matter what his foes say – and that the Democratic ticket is inverted, with the foreign policy expert relegated to the second spot.
Like Biden and McCain, Palin will be able to speak credibly to the feelings of a parent who is sending a child to war, as her eldest son is heading to Iraq in September.
Ultimately, McCain needed desperately to inject energy into his campaign and establish a positive reason for voters to choose him. It would have been hard for him to do that with most of the candidates who had been mentioned often as possible running mates.
It was even harder to find someone who could both shake up the basic dynamic of the campaign who would not hurt him with the conservative voters who already view him with suspicion.
Analysis: McCain Had Two Messages to Send with Choice of Palin
Enter Palin, who gives the GOP its first national candidate who is not a white man, who appeals to conservatives and who can help McCain build his case for “reform.”
The challenge for McCain – as it has been for Obama with his “change” mantra – is to define for voters what, specifically, he means by reform. He and Palin can both point to reform-oriented policy accomplishments, but elections are about visions for the future.
Obama took a bigger swing at defining what he would change in his nomination acceptance speech Thursday night.
It will be worth checking on the GOP convention this week to hear what he tells fellow Republicans about their need to change and independent voters about what he would reform if given the chance.
Comments
Palin as a maverick -- I'm not sure the general public will make that link. Its far more likely they are going to say, "who the heck is she? I've never heard of her!" But the GOP has no choice but to dumb this election down to biography, as there is no way the voters give the GOP an edge in policy. So McCain's POW status is a reason to vote for him, and Palin's son in Iraq and infant with Down Syndrome is reason to vote for her. Its pathetic that we can't have a debate on the issues this year, but that's unfriendly ground for the GOP this year, so McCain would rather avoid it at all costs. If I were Romney or Pawlenty or Kay Bailey Hutchinson I'd be pretty pissed off at McCain for selecting the female Dan Quayle.
McCain Behaving Mavericky: Brilliant! His VP Roll-out blunted coverage of Obama's successful by-all-accounts Convention Speech. His VP Pick makes it more plausable that he can diminish Obama's lead among women by at least a couple of percentage points, thereby bringing several of the closely-contested, critical, Obama-must-have swing states back to Red. No wonder the Democratic response to her has been viral and visious. Of all the counter-arguments, the most mythical is that the Palin pick somehow steps on McCain's chief experience argument against Obama, as if Obama's VP pick didn't step on his Change message. Dan Qayle anyone?
McCain acting incompentently: Brilliant! MCCain has just proven to everyone that his JUDGEMENT is lacking in a very serious way. He claims the world is a dangerous place, and he selects Palin, who only 1 and a half yrs ago was mayor of a town of 6000. Really? And to those that say Palin has more experience than Obama, I say PROVE IT! What foreign leaders has she met? How many times has she been to Iraq to see General Petraeus? Remember McCain blasting Obama for not sitting with him? Let's all be realistic here. Obama was rightfully nominated by his party and received over 18 million votes in the primaries. Obviously people think he is up to the job. Palin, on the other hand, was selected by ONE person, McCain. His first major decision as a presidential candidate. Think about it people. Do you honestly yhink Palin would have even had a shot as the Republican nominee? That is the difference.
What is appalling to me is that the Republican Party after bringing us the worst president in history actually has the nerve to field a nominee. They certainly have no shame. If the GOP has any conscience, their convention would be a four day exercise in begging for the forgiveness of the American people. NO such luck.
Jeff H. you got to be kidding....Carter was the worst ever prez in my lifetime or don't you remember the high teens interest rates..Iranian prisoners, letting the ayatollahs gain control of Iran which caused the present crisis?
Palin as a reformer? She's under investigation for having her brother-in-law fired because of his bitter divorce of her sister, and the evidence isn't looking good for her. More Repugnican corruption. And the pander to these alleged disgruntled Hillary supporters is desperate and shameless. The idea that McCain would be willing to put this grossly unqualified person a heartbeat from the Presidency for the sake of a political gimmick is... well, it's pretty much a gift to the Obama/Biden campaign. They're high-fiving over this one...
Stephanie Tubbs Jones just recently died of an aneurysm which she obviously didn't know she would have, much younger than McCain. The idea of Palin as VP scraps McCains' "Country First" slogan. Change to "McCain First, Country Second."
Your analysis totally missed the main reason McCain chose Palin -- Palin was chosen solely because she is a woman. McCain is pandering to the Hillary supporters. Does he REALLY believe that women will vote for her simply because she's female? Hillary's positions are moderately liberal. Palin is ultra-conservative. Hillary supports a woman's right to choose, sensible gun control, no drilling in ANWR, etc., etc. Palin is 180 degrees away from Hillary's positions. McCain, who says he puts Country ahead of politics, who slammed Obama for lack of experience, has just proven that he's the biggest liar of them all -- all that matters to McCain is politics and winning.
Palin's no Hillary, but this Hillary supporter likes her. Most of us Hillary supporters didn't support Hillary just because she's a woman. Rather, we respected her lifelong dedication to the well-being of average Americans (of ALL races). But we watched the decades-long fighter for civil rights and champion of "the little guy" be chewed up by her own party during a process that made a mockery of democracy - all to reward a guy who's spent all of three years as a do-nothing legislator. Palin, on the other hand, has had several years of executive leadership experience - at which she has excelled. The fact that she was a popular mayor of a small town for two terms - before becoming governor - shows she understands the issues that affect people's daily lives and effectively works to make their lives better. And she stands up to government corruption! So most women won't support Palin solely because she's a woman. However, most women want respect and equal opportunities - and if more women got it, there would be more women decision-makers in government that are pro-life AND pro-choice.
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