CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
July 29, 2009 – 12:38 a.m.
CQ Ratings Change in New Jersey as Corzine Slips
By Rachel Kapochunas, CQ Staff
New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine has so much to overcome in his 2009 re-election campaign that CQ Politics is changing the rating of that race from Tossup to Leans Republican.
The Democratic governor’s opponent, former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie, holds the advantage.
For many months, the governor has trailed Christie in major independent polls. Corzine has consistently suffered from low approval ratings stemming from the state’s economic woes and voter discontent with high property taxes and other issues.
Then, on July 23, came a major corruption sting that ensnared Democrats in the state legislature.
Corzine himself was not implicated, but 44 people were arrested and Republicans gained the opportunity to argue that the state party and its leadership, including Corzine, are to blame.
“I think that the New Jersey Democratic party is a major embarrassment, not just to people here at home, but should be to Democrats all over this country,” said Christie campaign chairman Joe Kyrillos, a state senator.
“There’s a culture and an enabling of people and care and feeding of the wrong kinds of actors and a looking the other way that has a allowed this kind of episode — and it’s not the first one — to take place,” he said.
Corzine has called on local lawmakers embroiled in the scandal to resign.
“Gov. Corzine put in place the most stringent ethics regulation and laws this state has ever seen,” said his campaign spokesman, Sean Darcy.
The incident couldn’t have been better tailored to showcase Christie’s major credential as a candidate; he has been running on a record of fighting corruption and his message has been that for New Jersey to change, its leadership must change.
Corzine trailed Christie in an independent Public PolicyPolling survey conducted in the days following the corruption scandal.
“It’s not the nail in the coffin for the governor, but it certainly helped close the lid a little bit more,” said Seton Hall University political scientist Joseph R. Marbach said of the scandal. “It really has played to the strength of Chris Christie.”
A PPP survey of New Jersey voters conducted July 24-27 found Christie led Corzine 50 percent to 36 percent with 14 percent undecided. Christie had expanded his lead over Corzine by 4 points since PPP’s June poll.
Michael Murphy, a lobbyist and consultant in New Jersey who is friends with Corzine said some Democrats “pushed the panic button” after the corruption arrests and began discussing the possibility of replacing Corzine on the November ballot.
In his own conversations with the governor, Murphy said Corzine’s reaction to such a possibility was “No [expletive] way.”
“There’s really no quitting in him,” Murphy said.
The scandal stole media attention away from Corzine, who on July 25 announced his pick for lieutenant governor, state Sen. Loretta Weinberg. Weinberg has roots in Bergen County, the state’s most populous county and a bellwether in recent elections.
Christie announced his choice of Monmouth County Sheriff Kim Guadagno as running mate on July 20. Guadagno, like Christie, has a background as a prosecutor.
Corzine supporters argue the governor cannot yet be counted out of the race. Corzine remains personally wealthy from his time as CEO of Goldman Sachs and put more than $60 million in personal funds into his 2000 Senate campaign. He is not taking public funds for the current campaign.
And Marbach argues that corruption will not be the focus of the election.
“This is going to be a pocketbook election and people are going to be concerned about their taxes and the state of the economy,” he said.
Corzine’s campaign has been working to discredit Christie’s anti-corruption record and promote Corzine’s record as governor.
Darcy added that he believes voters in November will continue to regard Christie as “too conservative” for their state and as someone who supports “the wrong choices” for New Jerseyans.
The state leans Democratic and supported Barack Obama for president with 57 percent of the vote in November. But unaffiliated voters make up 46 percent of registered voters in the state.
Voters head to the polls Nov. 3 to choose between Corzine, Christie and Independent Chris Daggett a former EPA administrator.
To follow the 2009 and 2010 Governors’ races, check out the CQ Politics election map
Comments
I am not surprised Corzine is losing so badly. I am registered Republican but actually an independent who has voted overwhelmingly Democratic the last 10 years at various levels. Corzine is such a mealy-mouthed wimp. He buckled to the state unions on the furloughs (making the time future vacation time), he gave tenure appointment to SC Justice Albin who has cost this state so much money with the Abbott district fiasco and Mt Laurel stupidity. Corzine has tried to use one-shot gimmicks (as have predecessors) to close budget gaps instead of making deep cuts. He has done nothing on property taxes. His claim to fame is the family leave bill which should not have been passed in this economy and just costs people a little more money (yes every little bit counts). The Democrats in NJ better wise up...NJ is a purple state and is fed up with the ridiculous spending and the corruption that helps fuel it. Corzine does not get my vote even though it pains me that he will lose and the stupid national Republicans will claim this as vindication and that they are on their way back. I am willing to give Christie a chance unless Corzine has a 180 conversion and shows balls which I don't think he can do. Maybe the Dems should replace him with Dick Codey.
Most restaurants and other stores you find are part of franchises. McDonalds' for instance, is one of the largest franchises in the world. Here's how they work – a person buys the rights to build a kind of restaurant because it's popular, and the parent company gets a portion of all sales. However, if the parent company goes into bankruptcy, franchise owners can be left in the lurch, or on their own. Recent examples include Old Country Buffet, Fatburger, and Mrs. Fields Cookies. Depending on the franchise, some restaurants can close, or the home office during the bankruptcy. Often times, owners of a franchises branch need to go to private money lenders to keep it afloat.
You guys are jumping the gun on this ratings change. It would have been prudent to wait and see what the polls say after Labor Day. Corzine's got the money to slime Christie, although it seems to be backfiring. Also, I'll bet that the originator of the "Torch Maneuver", Bob Torricelli, at first said, "No F---ing Way" as well.
New Jersey has been in the doldrums for the entire 21st century. Corzine has faced formidable problems and has not dealt with thiem as forcefully as many would have hoped. He has not shown the political acumen of his predecessors either. Christie's advantage seems more to be anti-Corzine feeling than pro-Christie feeling. Naming the Sherfiff of Monmouth, a county which is rock-ribbed GOP stronghold sends a message of partisanship that will rebound to Christie's detriment. Christie's Lt. Gov pick shows that he will take a strongly GOP partisan course if he should become Governor. This will be his undoing. Corzine will pull this one out.
Why can the Democrats take a strongly Democrat partisan course with a rabid partisan like Corzine but Christie not take a strongly GOP partisan course? Hello!!! Do you expect Christie to take a strongly Democrat partisan course? The Democrat partisan course has destroyed New Jersey for more than two decades.
POST A COMMENT
Oops! The following errors must be addressed: