The country received a temporary respite from the health care reform debate while political leaders of both parties paused to criticize President Obama for his dual decision to send more than 30,000 new troops to Afghanistan while at the same time announcing a withdrawal date of 2011.

The sharp questioning and criticism of his announcement will subside, and the Senate’s back into talking about health care. But that’s not the issue that will have an impact on the president’s declining popularity.

The Democrats can — and constantly do — blame former President George W. Bush and his administration for the loss of jobs and the faltering economy, but that excuse is quickly losing its legs.

And every other discussion — even on a topic as important as Afghanistan — is all but meaningless to a population out of work.

People are hurting. They don’t wake up in the morning thinking about Afghanistan or wondering whether the Democrats will get a health care overhaul bill out of the Senate by Christmas. (The answer, by the way, is no, and that’s a prediction you can take to the bank.)

For Obama, failure to pass health care legislation would be a direct blow. He did after all, set the targets for getting that done. By this point, the president might prefer to be thinking about something else.

Me too.

I would like to ponder the likelihood that even the best golfer in the world would have a driver handy for his wife to use on the back window of his car after he drives into a fire hydrant. And why would she knock out the back window when he was up front in the driver’s seat?

I’d like to have some fun writing about that, but that’s so trivial — and besides, I don’t have a prediction about how it will turn out.

I do have predictions about the president and Afghanistan.

Obama waffled like Hamlet before making a decision on troop levels, and then when he finally made one he stole the thunder from his own decision by announcing a withdrawal date. He’ll continue to be criticized for his decision to send more troops, as he would have been if he had decided against increasing troop levels.

And, in the end, we will not withdraw in 2011. Mark my words. (That’s prediction No. 2.)

All things considered, it could be a tough, lonely winter for the president as he concludes his first year in the Oval Office. So far, he has shown impressive resilience in the face of criticism but he is about to be severely tested.