CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
May 22, 2008 – 11:12 a.m.
Unhappy with Country’s Direction, Voters Drifting to the Democrats
By Greg Giroux, CQ Staff
Americans are in a grim mood about the direction of the country, and it’s mostly the Republicans who are paying the price.
The latest George Washington University “Battleground 2008” poll underlines what other recent national polls have had to say: that voters are headed into the general election in an increasingly negative mood and, when you look at their preferences generically as opposed to support for specific candidates, they favor the Democrats. The Battleground survey was conducted May 11-14 by the Democratic firm Lake Research Partners and the Republican firm The Tarrance Group.
Slightly more than three-quarters of voters said the country was on the wrong track, a finding similar to a Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted May 8-11, which put that number at 8 out of 10. In April 2001, the Battleground poll pegged the “wrong track” figure at 44 percent. President Bush’s disapproval rating of 63 percent is the highest in any Battleground survey conducted during his presidency.
Democrats have a generic lead in the presidential race, 49 percent to 41 percent, though Illinois Sen. Barack Obama , the Democratic presidential front-runner, leads Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain by 49 percent to 47 percent — a statistical dead heat. McCain leads New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton 51 percent to 43 percent.
Obama and McCain have similar approval ratings: 54 percent of those surveyed had a favorable impression of Obama and 40 percent viewed him unfavorably, while McCain’s numbers were 54 percent favorable and 39 percent unfavorable. In July 2007, Obama’s unfavorability rating was 28 percent and McCain’s was 33 percent.
When asked about specific issues, respondents give McCain big leads over Obama on safeguarding the nation from a terrorist attack, managing the Iraq War and handling illegal immigration. Issues on which voters overwhelmingly side with Obama over McCain include making health care affordable and available; creating jobs; reducing gas prices; and representing middle class values.
McCain has the edge over Obama on Iraq even though 56 percent of Americans say the war it is not worth fighting and more voters agree with Obama’s position to begin withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq. Forty percent said troops should stay until the country is stabilized — basically McCain’s position. Thirty-two percent think that troops should be withdrawn within two years and 25 percent want an immediate withdrawal.
One-fifth of Clinton supporters said they would not vote for Obama if he is the Democratic nominee. Republicans are looking to exploit Obama’s weaknesses among white blue-collar voters, who have sided with Clinton over Obama in the Democratic primaries. This statistic is “a cautionary tale for the Democrats,” Brian Nienaber, a vice president at The Tarrance Group, told reporters on a conference call that accompanied the release of the Battleground Poll.
Obama’s problems with the voting blocs that heavily supported Clinton in the primaries was further underlined today in a Quinnipiac University survey that said its polling in the swings states of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania showed him to be “plagued by a defection of Clinton supporters and white working class voters.” Similarly, a Gallup analysis of its data this week showed Obama with a significant deficit among women voters compared to Clinton when matched against McCain.
Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster who is president of Lake Research Partners, said that surveys that show disaffection for Obama among some Clinton supporters reflect the “passion of the moment” and that the party will come together once the nomination is decided and Democrats begin to focus more intently on their differences with McCain.
“I think you’ll see both bases quite unified against the other candidate, and it will be a fight for the independents,” Lake said, noting that Obama leads McCain among that voting bloc.
Race for Congress
Democrats lead Republicans by 49 percent to 40 percent on a generic congressional ballot test. That compared to an eight-point edge for Democrats in September 2006, two months before Democrats made net gains of thirty seats in the House and six seats in the Senate.
Unhappy with Country’s Direction, Voters Drifting to the Democrats
Voters don’t care all that much for the performance of either political party — but they dislike the Republicans more than the Democrats. Just 21 percent of respondents approved but 68 percent disapproved of the performance of Republicans in Congress. For the Democrats, the approval rating was 31 percent and the disapproval rating was 57 percent.
“As poor as the ratings were for congressional Republicans, the ratings for congressional Democrats are not much better,” Nienaber said. “To some extent, it’s looking like potentially an anti-incumbent, anti-Washington cycle. . . . Perhaps there is still opportunity for us to take on the mantle of being the party of change and pointing toward running things differently than congressional Democrats have and McCain running things as a different type of Republican from President Bush.”
“The Democrats are not getting great ratings either, and the only thing that’s good about being a Democrat today is that you get to run against a Republican,” Lake said. “The flip side, of course, is . . . ironically, because they still control the presidency, Republicans are perceived to be in charge of Washington. And so Democrats, even though we have Congress, we have the opportunity to run as outsiders.”
To keep up with the latest polls and analysis, go to CQ Politics Poll Tracker.








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