Election 2008: Midwest: Democrats Build on Earlier Victories

OHIO 16 — Open ( Ralph Regula , R, retiring)

2006: Regula 58%, Thomas Shaw (D) 42%

Regula’s retirement was widely expected; the congressman is 83 and appeared unlikely to ever reach his goal of chairing the Appropriations Committee. John A-Boccieri, an Iraq veteran and state senator, won the March 4 Democratic primary. The narrow winner of the Republican primary was another state senator, Kirk A-Schuring. His political base is Canton, the population center of the GOP-tilted district, but Democrats say they can compete intensely because of Boccieri’s campaign skills and military background.

LEANS DEMOCRATIC

ILLINOIS 8 — Melissa Bean , D

2006: Bean 51%, David McSweeney (R) 44%

Bean was one of a small handful of Democratic incumbents who faced close shaves in 2006, mainly because she was in her first term. Representing a district anchored in suburbs north and northwest of Chicago with a long Republican orientation, she mixes fiscal restraint and support for free trade with non-ideological legislative goals such as promoting Internet safety for children. She’s well-funded, with $2 million raised in the first 15 months of this campaign. Republican nominee Steve Greenberg, who runs an art supply business, comes highly touted by national GOP officials, but he began April with just $5,000 in the bank. He’ll need to dramatically improve his fundraising to afford expensive Chicago media outlets and thereby keep this race among the region’s most competitive.

ILLINOIS 14 — Bill Foster , D

March 8 special election: Foster 53%, Jim Oberweis (R) 47%

Foster’s win in this exurban, Republican-leaning seat west of Chicago resounded in national political circles, for the Democrats had captured the seat of J. Dennis Hastert, the longest-serving Republican Speaker in American history. Foster is favored to win a full term in November, in part because he’ll again be facing Oberweis, a dairy executive who had previously lost Republican primaries for senator in 2002 and 2004 and for governor in 2006. Four losses in six years have saddled Oberweis with high negative ratings and an image as a chronically unsuccessful office-seeker, an image he’ll have to work hard and fast to rehabilitate.

INDIANA 7 — Andr?? Carson, D

March 11 special election: Carson 54%, Jon Elrod (R) 43%

Carson is a grandson of his predecessor, Julia Carson, who died of cancer in December in the middle of her sixth term. His margin of victory last month, 11 percentage points, roughly compares to the margins by which she regularly triumphed in this Indianapolis district, which tilts Democratic. Elrod, a state representative, will also be the general election GOP nominee at age 31, but a rematch will occur only if Carson wins a hotly contested May 6 primary. His three main opponents are two state legislators — David Orentlicher and Carolene Mays — and Woody Myers, a former health director in Indiana and New York City who is using his personal wealth on the campaign.

Election 2008: Midwest: Democrats Build on Earlier Victories

INDIANA 9 — Baron P. Hill , D

2006: Hill 50%, Rep. Mike Sodrel (R) 46%

Bill Clinton was president when voters in the state’s southeastern corner had last voted in a House election not between Hill and Sodrel, a wealthy transportation executive. Hill has won two of the three previous contests, prevailing in 2002 as the incumbent and in 2006 as the challenger. John McCain is likely to handily carry the district this fall, and Republicans hope the higher turnout of a presidential year will replicate the conditions that enabled Sodrel to unseat Hill four years ago, when President Bush prevailed there by nearly 20 points. But Hill, a leading Democratic voice for fiscal restraint, merits the edge at this point.

MINNESOTA 1 — Tim Walz , D

2006: Walz 53%, Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R) 47%

Two Republicans are vying for the nomination to challenge Walz after his 2006 upset win, creating a potentially divisive situation for the GOP in the southernmost district in the state. Oncologist and neophyte politician Brian Davis won his party’s endorsement in March but still faces a September primary against state Sen. Dick Day, who said that a primary will be good for Minnesota Republicans. The territory twice preferred Bush by narrow margins.

WISCONSIN 8 — Steve Kagen , D

2006: Kagen 51%, John Gard (R) 49%

Gard, a former state House Speaker, is prepping for a rematch after losing in the state’s Republican-leaning northeast corner by just 6,000 votes to Kagen, an allergist and first-time politician. Gard had $428,000 in the bank at the end of March, while the incumbent had $760,000 in cash on hand. The state’s July 8 filing deadline means someone else could emerge as an alternative to Gard — and without a 0-1 record in the district.

LEANS REPUBLICAN

ILLINOIS 10 — Mark Steven Kirk , R

2006: Kirk 53%, Daniel J. Seals (D) 47%

In this politically competitive swath of suburbs north of Chicago, Kirk and Seals are in a rematch that could be as competitive as their 2006 race; it will certainly be more expensive. No other Republican House member has raised more campaign cash (nearly $3 million through the end of March). But Seals, a business consultant who’s a former marketing director at GE Capital, got an early start to his second run and will have plenty of money for a vigorous advertising campaign in the pricey Chicago market.

Election 2008: Midwest: Democrats Build on Earlier Victories

MICHIGAN 7 — Tim Walberg , R

2006: Walberg 50%, Sharon Renier (D) 46%

Democrats are heavily targeting the seat by A-arguing that Walberg, who ousted moderate one-term Rep. Joe Schwarz in a bitter 2006 primary, is too A-conservative for the southern, rural district. Democratic state Sen. Mark Schauer continued to outraise the freshman Republican through the first quarter of this year and is pulling together support from the party infrastructure. But Renier, an organic farmer, will also be on the Aug. 5 primary ballot.

MICHIGAN 9 — Joe Knollenberg , R

2006: Knollenberg 52%, Nancy Skinner (D) 46%

Democratic gains in the suburban Detroit district, combined with Knollenberg’s record-low 2006 victory margin, have made this a top Democratic target — and former state Sen. Gary Peters a top candidate for the party. Knollenberg has eight terms under his belt and has gotten an early fundraising start, with $1.8 million as of March 31. Peters is receiving financial support and attention from the Democratic House campaign committee and raised three-quarters of a million dollars by that date.

MISSOURI 6 — Sam Graves , R

2006: Graves 62%, Mary Jo Shettles (D) 36%

After essentially giving the incumbent a pass the past three campaigns, the Democrats are going with a big gun this time: Kay Barnes, the former mayor of Kansas City, whose $1.4 million in receipts through the end of March makes her one of the year’s best-funded Democratic challengers. Though the district includes part of Kansas City and some suburbs, Graves’ political base is in the rural northwest, and Barnes will have to fend off GOP criticism that she’s an urban liberal.

MISSOURI 9 — Open( Kenny Hulshof , R, running for governor)

2006: Hulshof 61%, Duane N. Burghard (D) 36%

Hulshof’s bid for statewide office opens the seat in the state’s northeastern corner for the first time in 12 years. Both parties have crowded fields in the Aug. 5 primaries. The Democrats include state Rep. Judy Baker; Steve Gaw, a former state House Speaker; and Lyndon Bode, a county commissioner. The A-Republicans include state Reps. Bob Onder and Danie Moore as well as Brock Olivo, who was a running back for the Detroit Lions after playing for the University of Missouri. Bush took 54 percent in 2000 and expanded his share to 59 percent in 2004.

OHIO 1 — Steve Chabot , R

Election 2008: Midwest: Democrats Build on Earlier Victories

2006: Chabot 52%, John Cranley (D) 48%

The “Battle of the Steves” has been quiet recently, as it’s been clear for a year that state Rep. Steve Driehaus would be the Democratic nominee against Chabot, who’s seeking an eighth term in a politically competitive district that takes in most of Cincinnati. Democrats point to Driehaus’ political base in the district’s more Republican-leaning suburbs, though Chabot showed resilience and strong political skills two years ago in overcoming a determined Democratic challenger in a terrible election year for Republicans. The incumbent began April with $1.1 million in the bank, twice the cash reserve of the challenger.

OHIO 2 — Jean Schmidt , R

2006: Schmidt 50%, Victoria Wulsin (D) 49%

Wulsin, a physician, is taking another shot at Schmidt, who won her first full term in 2006 by only 2,500 votes in an overwhelmingly Republican district in and east of Cincinnati. Schmidt took only 57 percent in the March primary against state Rep. Tom Brinkman, the latest evidence that many Republicans simply don’t like the person they sent to Congress in 2005 to replace Rob Portman. Still, Wulsin is challenged by GOP criticism that she is too liberal to represent the district.

DEMOCRAT FAVORED

ILLINOIS 11 — Open ( Jerry Weller , R, retiring)

2006: Weller 55%, John Pavich (D) 45%

Republicans were becoming the underdog in the race to retain Weller’s seat even before local mayor Tim Baldermann relinquished the GOP nomination in February, not long after he won the primary. Democratic state Sen. Debbie Halvorson, who is well organized and financed, is now a solid favorite in a district that includes suburbs and rural territory south and west of Chicago. Republican officials — who appear ready to tap Marty Ozinga, a construction and concrete company owner, as the new nominee — aren’t conceding yet: The district modestly backed Bush in 2000 and 2004, and Republicans are linking Halvorson to unpopular Democratic Gov. Rod R. Blagojevich .

INDIANA 2 — Joe Donnelly , D

2006: Donnelly 54%, Rep. Chris Chocola (R) 46%

Donnelly, one of the more conservative Democrats in the Class of 2006, is looking very strong in a district that stretches from South Bend south to Kokomo. For now, his status as a freshman and the conservative lean of the seat are all that keep this race remotely competitive. GOP businessman Luke Puckett restarted a campaign in February that he had ended last year.

INDIANA 8 — Brad Ellsworth , D

Election 2008: Midwest: Democrats Build on Earlier Victories

2006: Ellsworth 61%, Rep. John Hostettler (R) 39%Of the 22 Democratic challengers who unseated GOP incumbents in 2006, the socially conservative Ellsworth won by the widest margin, and Republicans don’t consider him a prime 2008 target. Their candidate, Greg Goode, had been the chief governmental affairs officer for Indiana State University in Terre Haute, the district’s most populous city after Evansville. His fundraising has been anemic, though, despite the district’s solid GOP tilt.

KANSAS 3 — Dennis Moore , D

2006: Moore 65%, Chuck Ahner (R) 34%

For a decade now, Moore’s positioning as a centrist has given him a sturdy hold on the Kansas City suburbs, which have a longstanding Republican heritage. GOP officials assert they can make a serious run this time with state Sen. Nick Jordan. Moore, however, had raised almost $1 million by the end of March, while Jordan reported a solid but unspectacular $388,000.

OHIO 18 — Zack Space , D

2006: Space 62%, Joy Padgett (R) 38%

Space’s astronomical margin of victory was perhaps an aberration brought about by the taint that GOP Rep. Bob Ney left before resigning and heading to prison. But the freshman’s committee assignments — Agriculture, Transportation and Veterans’ Affairs — have given him ample opportunity for parochial legislating, and the GOP did not recruit a top-flight challenger despite the rural and conservative nature of the district. Their candidate, former state agriculture director Fred Dailey, had $36,000 left to spend as April began.

REPUBLICAN FAVORED

ILLINOIS 6 — Peter Roskam , R

2006: Roskam 51%, Tammy Duckworth (D) 49%

Roskam’s narrow win in this suburban Chicago district was a rare instance in which a Republican defeated a well-funded Democrat for an open seat. Democratic nominee Jill Morgenthaler, a retired Army colonel who was homeland security advisor to Gov. Blagojevich, is a credible candidate, but she doesn’t have the star quality or fundraising heft of Duckworth — and the territory is marginally Republican.

ILLINOIS 18 — Open ( Ray LaHood , R, retiring)

2006: LaHood 67%, Steve Waterworth (D) 33%

Election 2008: Midwest: Democrats Build on Earlier Victories

The solid favorite to succeed LaHood after seven terms is 26-year-old state Rep. Aaron Schock, a prodigious fundraiser and vote-getter; he’s already formed a leadership political action committee, a vehicle that many members of Congress organize to give campaign funds to others. The Democrats insist their candidate, farm broadcaster Colleen Callahan, has a chance if a big national Democratic tide sweeps through the district, which rambles from Peoria past Springfield and Decatur.

MINNESOTA 6 — Michele Bachmann , R

2006: Bachmann 50%, Patty Wetterling (D) 42%

Democrats are targeting Bachmann despite the Twin Cities-area district’s GOP lean, drawing attention to the freshman’s early gaffes and arguing she is too conservative for the district. But Bachmann had $1 million in cash as April began, and she’ll have support from her party’s Regain Our Majority Program. Moderate Elwyn Tinklenberg, who ran unsuccessfully in 2006, and the more liberal tax attorney Bob Olson were competing for the Democratic endorsement last weekend.

OHIO 14 — Steven C. LaTourette , R

2006: LaTourette 58%, Lewis Katz (D) 39%

The 2006 elections were disastrous for LaTourette’s party nationally and in Ohio, but he weathered the storm in the Cleveland and Akron suburbs through a combination of his centrist Republican profile — particularly on labor issues — and weak Democratic opposition. His Democratic opponent this year is Bill O’Neill, a former state appellate judge who should be more competitive than LaTourette’s recent foes.