Election 2008: The South: GOP Targets Democrats Elected in 2006

A special election May 3 will determine whether Republican Woody Jenkins or Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux will succeed Baker, who quit in the middle of his 11th term to lobby for the hedge fund industry. The conservative-leaning district is centered on Baton Rouge. Jenkins spent nearly three decades in the state House and made three losing runs for the Senate — the most recent in 1996, when he lost an open-seat runoff by 6,000 votes to Democrat Mary L. Landrieu . Now a newspaper executive, Jenkins has high name recognition and backing from national and local conservative groups. Cazayoux is formidable in the eyes of GOP strategists because he campaigns on a mix of economic populism and social conservatism on such issues as guns and abortion — a formula that works well for Democrats here. Under the state’s late-starting political calendar, whoever loses next week will have until July to decide on seeking a November rematch for a full two-year term.

MISSISSIPPI 1 — Vacant

( Roger Wicker , R, appointed to the Senate Dec. 31)

2006: Wicker 66%, James K. “Ken” Hurt (D) 34%

Democrats have found a surprisingly serious pickup opportunity in the conservative northern part of the state, which Bush carried by 25 points in 2004. A special election was called after Wicker (who dominated the seat in seven elections) was appointed to succeed Trent Lott, who quit the Senate so he could start lobbying. Democrat Travis W. Childers , a nursing-home owner and the relatively conservative chief financial officer in Prentiss County near Tupelo, led the field in the first round April 22, but he fell just short of an outright majority. On May 13 he’ll again face Republican Mayor Greg Davis of Southaven in metro Memphis. Whatever happens, the two will square off yet again in November.

NORTH CAROLINA 8 — Robin Hayes , R

2006: Hayes 50%, Larry Kissell (D) 50%

The rematch between the five-term Republican and the social studies teacher promises to be tight once again, and this time it has become a top Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee target. In 2006, Kissell got scant attention from the party infrastructure and still came out of nowhere to get within 329 votes of victory. This time, the DCCC hails the race in this south-central district, connecting Fayetteville and Charlotte, as a marquee national contest, adding Kissell to the list of highly competitive “Candidates for Change.” Democrats are banking on their contention that Hayes’ generally pro-trade voting is unpopular, but Kissell continues to trail the incumbent in fundraising.

VIRGINIA 11 — Open ( Thomas M. Davis III , R, retiring)

2006: Davis 55%, Andrew L. Hurst (D) 44%

Davis probably would have won easily had he sought an eighth term in this suburban Washington seat, which stretches from Vienna down to Woodbridge and then west underneath Manassas. His retirement, coupled with demographic changes that have ushered a Democratic trend in Northern Virginia, give the party a significant opportunity to take away another seat once held by a GOP leader. The front-runners in the June 10 Democratic primary are Leslie Byrne, who served one House term before losing to Davis in 1994 and has since been a state senator and the party’s 2005 lieutenant governor candidate, and Gerald Connolly, who chairs the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors. The presumed Republican nominee is Keith Fimian, who runs a successful home inspection service and had $742,000 in the bank as of March 31.

LEANS DEMOCRATIC

GEORGIA 8 — Jim Marshall , D

Election 2008: The South: GOP Targets Democrats Elected in 2006

2006: Marshall 51%, Mac Collins (R) 49%

Marshall was one of only a handful of House Democratic incumbents who had a hard time surviving in 2006, when a Republican-led redistricting plan forced him to run in a part of middle Georgia that was largely new to him. But he has had two years now to ingratiate himself with his new constituency, and the party is confident this campaign will be much easier for him. Still, Republicans think they have found a top-flight recruit in Rick Goddard, a local university administrator who was previously a top general at Robins Air Force Base, one of the district’s economic engines.

GEORGIA 12 — John Barrow , D

2006: Barrow 50%, Max Burns (R) 50%

Barrow has been working to bolster his conservative profile as he faces a third consecutive intense battle for his seat, which he held on last time by just 864 votes. Like Marshall, Barrow now has spent two years running in and representing what had been somewhat unfamiliar territory. (The district, which includes parts of Savannah and Augusta, now excludes his old hometown, Athens.) Leading challenger candidates in the July 15 GOP primary are John Stone, a congressional staff veteran, and Ben Crystal, a former Savannah radio personality. Barrow must also contend with a primary challenge from state Sen. Regina Thomas, who may draw support among the area’s African-American voters.

KENTUCKY 3 — John Yarmuth , D

2006: Yarmuth 51%, Rep. Anne M. Northup (R) 48%

This rematch wasn’t supposed to take place. After losing her quest for a sixth term in 2006, Northup lost a primary challenge to scandal-plagued Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher a year ago and planned to back lawyer Erwin Roberts as Yarmuth’s 2008 GOP challenger. But Roberts pulled out of the race this January to fulfill a military obligation, and Northup acquiesced to entreaties that she try for a comeback. Her supporters say she can win because Yarmuth’s voting record is more liberal than the Louisville electorate; his backers say he’ll survive because Northup has acquired a reputation as a political loser.

TEXAS 22 — Nick Lampson , D

2006: Lampson 52%, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R) 42%

Of the 30 districts Republicans lost in 2006, it’s hard to imagine one that party strategists covet more than this one in and around Houston. Lampson seized the seat last time after Tom DeLay, the former GOP whip and majority leader, resigned amid mounting ethical challenges. Lampson’s voting record is less liberal than it was during his first stint in Congress, representing a different area from 1997 through 2004, and he’s tended to the needs of the local space industry while building a robust constituent services operation. Republicans say Lampson can’t make himself a good fit for a district with such solid GOP voting patterns; their nominee is Pete Olson, a Navy veteran and former chief of staff to Sen. John Cornyn .

TEXAS 23 — Ciro D. Rodriguez , D

2006: Rodriguez 54%, Rep. Henry Bonilla (R) 46%

Election 2008: The South: GOP Targets Democrats Elected in 2006

After a two-year absence, Rodriguez seized an opening to return to the House when the Supreme Court ordered this South Texas district’s boundaries redrawn to add more Hispanic voters in 2006. Many of them live, as Rodriguez does, in the Democratic precincts of south San Antonio, forming his base of support. But the district has enough Republicans that it will probably back John McCain for president this fall, which could benefit GOP nominee Lyle Larson, an elected commissioner in the county that includes San Antonio. Rodriguez is seeking to shed an image as a less than energetic campaigner.

LEANS REPUBLICAN

ALABAMA 2 — Open ( Terry Everett , R, retiring)

2006: Everett 70%, Charles D. “Chuck” James (D) 30%

Democrats last staged a serious takeover bid in the state’s southeast corner in 1992, the last time this seat was open. But the unexpected retirement of Republican Everett, who won seven re-elections with ease after his narrow initial victory, provides a rare opportunity for the Democrats to compete. Their top-tier recruit for the seat is Mayor Bobby Bright of Montgomery. The GOP has developed a deep bench in the region by now, and several officeholders are hoping to move up. Three state legislators appear to be the front-runners for the June 3 primary: state Sen. Harri Anne Smith, state Rep. David Grimes and state Rep. Jay Love.

FLORIDA 13 — Vern Buchanan , R

2006: Buchanan 50%, Christine Jennings (D) 50%

This will be a rematch of the only 2006 congressional election that ended up in court. After Buchanan was certified the winner by 369 votes, Jennings sued in state court, contending voting machine failures denied her a margin of victory. The House also looked at the matter, but ended its inquiry in February after concluding that equipment failures didn’t change the outcome. The fight has kept Jennings in the news and endeared her to her supporters. Buchanan, a millionaire auto dealer, will likely dip into his personal finances again to help his chances in the Republican-leaning Gulf Coast district.

LOUISIANA 4 — Open( Jim McCrery , R, retiring)

2006: McCrery 57%, Artis Cash (D) 17%, Patti Cox (D) 13%

Like many congressional districts in the South, this Shreveport-centered seat has a more pronounced Republican lean in presidential contests than in down-ballot races, and Democrats are eyeing it even though McCrery won 10 full terms by generally lopsided margins. The Republican field includes John Fleming, a physician, and Chris Gorman, a transportation company executive. Democrats have high hopes for their presumed nominee, Paul Carmouche, who has been the district attorney for nearly 30 years in the parish (akin to a county) that envelops Shreveport.

DEMOCRAT FAVORED

FLORIDA 22 — Ron Klein , D

Election 2008: The South: GOP Targets Democrats Elected in 2006

2006: Klein 51%, Rep. E. Clay Shaw Jr. (R) 47%

The freshman represents a sliver of the Atlantic coastline, from Palm Beach County to Fort Lauderdale, that voted narrowly for Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004 — but had a Republican congressman for 26 years before Klein’s victory. Klein had $2.1 million in cash on had at the end of March in hopes of making sure no Republican could make a comeback. Retired Army Lt. Col. Allen West appears to be the leading candidate in the Aug. 26 primary. Klein’s own renomination is being challenged by former Air Force pilot Paul Renneisen, who says Klein hasn’t done enough to push for an end to the Iraq War.

NORTH CAROLINA 11 — Heath Shuler , D

2006: Shuler 54%, Rep. Charles H. Taylor (R) 46%

Because Republicans came up short in their recruiting efforts, and because the freshman has cultivated a moderate record, Shuler is a solid favorite for a second term even though the state’s western reaches have a strong GOP lean. Former Henderson County GOP chairman Spence Campbell, Asheville City Councilman Carl Mumpower and attorney John C. Armor are running in the May 6 primary.

REPUBLICAN FAVORED

FLORIDA 8 — Ric Keller , R

2006: Keller 53%, Charlie Stuart (D) 46%

With competitive August primaries shaping up on both sides of his re-election race, the National Republican Congressional Committee has identified Keller as an incumbent deserving extra political help. Marketing consultant Charlie Stuart got uncomfortably close to beating Keller in 2006, and Democrats argue that changing demographics in the Orlando area have increased their odds of winning in 2008. Stuart wants a rematch but faces opposition for the nomination from Alan Grayson, who has gained attention suing defense contractors for alleged war profiteering. Keller’s primary challengers include Todd Long, who criticizes the four-term incumbent for breaking a term-limit pledge.

FLORIDA 15 — Open( Dave Weldon , R, retiring)

2006: Weldon 56%, Bob Bowman (D) 44%

Democrats placed Weldon on their target list after his close call in the 2006 Democratic tide, but despite his decision to retire, they still haven’t been able to recruit a viable candidate with staying power. An Air Force colonel pondered the idea, then demurred.Nancy Higgs, a former Brevard County commissioner, got in once Weldon got out, but has since changed her mind. Their candidate in the so-called Space Coast district will be physician Steve Blythe unless recruiters strike gold this week. Republicans, meanwhile, have coalesced behind state Sen. Bill Posey.

FLORIDA 21 — Lincoln Diaz-Balart , R

Election 2008: The South: GOP Targets Democrats Elected in 2006

2006: Diaz-Balart 59%, Frank J. Gonzalez (D) 41%

Diaz-Balart has faced little serious opposition during his eight terms, but Democrat Raul Martinez threatens to complicate his bid this year. Martinez — who served as mayor of Hialeah, the Miami-area district’s largest city — and Diaz-Balart are both Cuban-Americans, as are many of the district’s residents.

Martinez faces primary competition from management consultant Richard Allbritton. Diaz-Balart’s seniority, combined with the district’s Republican registration advantage, keeps the incumbent favored.

FLORIDA 24 — Tom Feeney , R

2006: Feeney 58%, Clint Curtis (D) 42%

Democrats have selected former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas for extra aid in her bid to unseat the three-term incumbent in this seat, centered in the Orlando suburbs. Democrats argue that questions about Feeney’s ties to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff suppressed Feeney’s 2006 victory margin and can be even more successfully applied this year. Feeney established a legal defense fund last year. Kosmas faces competition for the Democratic nomination from 2006 nominee Curtis, a computer programmer, while others are still weighing bids.

FLORIDA 25 — Mario Diaz-Balart , R

2006: Diaz-Balart 58%, Michael Calderin (D) 42%

Diaz-Balart has benefited during his three House terms from the longstanding Republican sympathies of many of his fellow Cuban-Americans, who make up a sizable portion of this South Florida district. But the emergence of Joe Garcia, former executive director of the Cuban American National Foundation, as the Democratic challenger presents Diaz-Balart with perhaps his first serious competition since his initial election. Garcia will likely be able to benefit from his former chairmanship of the Miami-Dade County Democratic Party and his associations with other party organizations. But Diaz-Balart has focused on issues that are priorities to district voters and has a fundraising advantage in a district that trends Republican.

VIRGINIA 2 — Thelma Drake , R

2006: Drake 51%, Phil Kellam (D) 48%

The economy may predominate in the national issues debate, but military matters are always on the minds of residents in and around Virginia Beach and Norfolk. Drake serves on the Armed Services Committee, a helpful — if not necessary — assignment for any representative of this area. Her Democratic opponent will be Glenn Nye, whose career as a Foreign Service officer and in the U.S. Agency for International Development took him to global hot spots, such as the West Bank, Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq.

WEST VIRGINIA 2 — Shelley Moore Capito , R

Election 2008: The South: GOP Targets Democrats Elected in 2006

2006: Capito 57%, Mike Callaghan (D) 43%

Democratic officials were thrown for a loop in January when their likely nominee, state Sen. John Unger, abruptly ended his campaign just before the candidate filing deadline. Democrats have a good replacement in Anne Barth, a longtime West Virginia-based aide to the state’s iconic Democratic senator, Robert C. Byrd . But Capito is well-liked in the district that cuts across the middle of the state, and her past two Democratic opponents have been underfunded and unable to puncture her image as an independent-minded centrist Republican.