Election 2008: The West: GOP on Shaky Footing

OREGON 5 — Open ( Darlene Hooley , D, retiring)

2006: Hooley 54%, Mike Erickson (R) 43%

Hooley is one of only three House Democrats who are retiring from politics, creating one of the best pickup opportunities for the GOP. Hooley worked hard to hold the Willamette Valley seat (she never won with more than 57 percent), and George W. Bush carried the district twice, although by only 4,300 votes in 2004. Erickson, who runs a freight logistics business, is investing his own money to go after the GOP nomination again; he faces former state Rep. Kevin Mannix, the party’s 2002 candidate for governor. The Democratic favorite appears to be state Sen. Kurt Schrader; he faces Steve Marks, a former gubernatorial chief of staff. The vote-by-mail primaries end May 20.

LEANS DEMOCRATIC

ARIZONA 1 — Open ( Rick Renzi , R, retiring)

2006: Renzi 52%, Ellen Simon (D) 43%

Renzi has pleaded not guilty to federal conspiracy, fraud, extortion and money laundering charges related to a land-swap deal, but the indictment has ended his House career after three terms and created a significant opportunity for the Democrats to pick up this sprawling Flagstaff-centered seat. The party has united behind the candidacy of former state Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick. The leading Republican candidate is Sydney Hay, the conservative state Mining Association president, but some GOP activists are seeking a more moderate contender for this swing-district seat.

ARIZONA 5 — Harry E. Mitchell , D

2006: Mitchell 50%, Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) 46%

Republicans see a prime take-back opportunity in the Scottsdale-based and generally Republican district — confident that although Mitchell was a popular state legislator and longtime mayor of Tempe, he won last time only because of Hayworth’s links to now-imprisoned lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert leads the crowded GOP field in fundraising, and other Republicans may get in before the June 4 deadline. The primary is Sept. 2.

ARIZONA 8 — Gabrielle Giffords , D

2006: Giffords 54%, Randy Graf (R) 42%

Republicans predict state Senate President Tim Bee will offer an intense challenge to Giffords, whom they view as too liberal for her constituents; the GOP believes she won two years ago only because her opponent was so conservative on immigration that the party establishment disowned him. Generally, Tucson and the state’s southeast corner vote Republican. But Giffords had banked $1.7 million by March 31 for her campaign, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has challenged Bee by alleging campaign finance violations.

Election 2008: The West: GOP on Shaky Footing

CALIFORNIA 11— Jerry McNerney , D

2006: McNerney 53%, Rep. Richard W. Pombo (R) 47%

Pombo suffered from Abramoff ties when McNerney ousted him, and the San Joaquin Valley seat has historically Republican tendencies. (Bush carried the district by 8 points in his first win and 9 points in his re-election race.) All this gives Republicans an air of confidence in their anointed candidate, former state Rep. Dean Andal. But McNerney now has the benefits of incumbency — and $1.2 million in the bank — and growth in the San Francisco Bay Area means more Democratic voters.

LEANS REPUBLICAN

CALIFORNIA 4 — Open ( John T. Doolittle , R, retiring)

2006: Doolittle 49%, Charlie Brown (D) 46%

Doolittle, who is married to a former Abramoff fundraiser, gave up his bid for a 10th term after his home was raided by the FBI and several on his staff were subpoenaed. His decision to bow out gives the GOP more reason to believe it can hold the state’s rural and reliably Republican northeast corner. On June 3 they will nominate either conservative state Sen. Tom McClintock or the more moderate Doug Ose, who retired in 2004 after three terms representing an adjacent congressional district. Brown, a former Air Force officer, is hoping his name recognition from last time will keep him viable now.

COLORADO 4 — Marilyn Musgrave , R

2006: Musgrave 46%, Angie Paccione (D) 43%

Musgrave has shifted her focus from hot-button social issues (she has led the effort for a constitutional ban of same-sex marriage) to the needs of farmers and veterans. Though Colorado’s eastern plains have a conservative bent, her underwhelming victories in 2004 and 2006 — when her vote percentage was the lowest of any winning House candidate — give the Democrats hope this time. They are betting that their candidate, Betsy Markey, a former aide to Sen. Ken Salazar , can replicate the senator’s success in attracting crossover support from independents and Republicans.

NEVADA 3 — Jon Porter , R

2006: Porter 48%, Tessa Hafen (D) 47%

Democrats are again targeting Porter after a neophyte candidate nearly unseated him last time in this swing district, which takes in most Las Vegas suburbs. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has made Robert J. Daskas, a former Clark County deputy district attorney, a beneficiary of its “Red to Blue” program for the most competitive races for Republican seats. The GOP describes the challenger as not prepared for the magnitude of congressional office.

Election 2008: The West: GOP on Shaky Footing

WYOMING At-Large — Open ( Barbara Cubin , R, retiring)

2006 Cubin 48%, Gary Trauner (D) 48%

Because the state is solidly Republican, Cubin’s retirement after an often-contentious seven terms should dissipate small-businessman Trauner’s chances of winning on his second try. But the field for the Republican nomination remains fluid; of the four in the race, businessman and rancher Mark Gordon has the best fundraising and already has paid for statewide television spots, but the field could develop further before the May 30 filing deadline.

REPUBLICAN FAVORED

ARIZONA 3 — John Shadegg , R

2006: Shadegg 59%, Herb Paine (D) 38%

In February, Shadegg announced that his seventh term representing northern Phoenix would be his last, but he reversed himself 10 days later at the urging of more than 140 GOP congressional colleagues. He now faces well-funded Democratic tax attorney Bob Lord, but the territory appears solidly Republican and conservative.

IDAHO 1 — Bill Sali , R

2006: Sali 50%, Larry E. Grant (D) 45%

Sali’s blunt-spoken conservatism held down his victory margin when the solidly Republican seat on the state’s western edge came open in 2006. And Walt Minnick, the Democrats’ 1996 Senate nominee, was able to raise $639,000 by March 31 — more than $200,000 better than Sali’s total — to try for an upset this time. Sali has primary opposition from Iraq War vet Matt Salisbury.

NEVADA 2 — Dean Heller , R

2006: Heller 50%, Jill Derby (D) 45%

Derby, who took over the state Democratic Party after losing the open seat, is now launching a late-A-starting bid for a rematch. She hopes that Heller has not secured a lock on the sprawling district, which takes in all of the state north of the Las Vegas area. But voters there are reliably Republican.

Election 2008: The West: GOP on Shaky Footing

NEW MEXICO 2 — Open ( Steve Pearce , R, running for the Senate)

2006: Pearce 59%, Albert D. Kissling (D) 41%

Five GOP candidates are vying in the June 3 primary in this district, which covers the state’s southern half; the best-funded are restaurant chain owner Ed Tinsley and retired banker Aubrey Dunn. The two Democratic candidates are Do??a Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley and former Lea County Commissioner Harry Teague. George W. Bush twice carried the territory with ease, but Democrats still have a slight registration edge.