By Rachel Kapochunas, CQ Staff

Christmas came a little early for Republican Sen. John E. Sununu this year. On Dec. 20, an American Research Group poll put the New Hampshire lawmaker 11 points ahead of his major competition for re-election, former Gov. Democrat Jeanne Shaheen.

When asked who they would vote for if the election were held “today,” 52 percent said Sununu, 41 percent preferred Shaheen.

Though the singular poll hardly guarantees success for the one-term senator, it was a major bright spot after at least six months of abysmal poll numbers for Sununu. Even the American Research Group had Sununu trailing 28 points behind Shaheen in their June 2007 poll and behind by 5 points in September.

Shaheen was heavily courted by Democrats who viewed her as the strongest candidate to take on Sununu because of her statewide popularity , experience and narrow loss to Sununu in the 2002 senate race. Shaheen’s announcement Sept. 14 that she would definitely campaign for the seat set off a tidal wave, prompting all other major Democrats in the race to drop their campaigns.

CQ Politics changed the race rating from Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite.

Sununu supporters hope the poll signals a shift in New Hampshire, which was strongly anti-Republican in 2006, a year that saw both Republican House members ousted in favor of Democrats and the state House and Senate shift to Democratic majorities.

The name “Shaheen” appeared in the national news just a few days before the poll was taken, but it wasn’t Jeanne Shaheen that made the headlines. Her husband, longtime Democratic presidential strategist Bill Shaheen, announced Dec. 13 that he was quitting his co-chairman position on Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton ’s presidential campaign after making comments about Barack Obama and drug use that evoked strong criticism.

Dick Bennett, president of American Research Group, told CQ Politics that he believes some poll respondents were influenced by the Shaheen flap because Democratic voters, especially those supporting Obama, may have negatively reacted to reminders that the Shaheen family has already signed on to Clinton’s campaign.

“Democrats get touchy during presidential contests,” Bennett said. “And if you look at the breakdown by party, it would be closer if Shaheen’s support among Democrats equaled Sununu’s support among Republicans.”

A whopping 93 percent of Republicans said they supported Sununu while 79 percent of Democrats pledged their vote for Shaheen.

Bennett warned both campaigns that if voters leave a side, one can’t be certain they’ll return.

Bennett added that some voters, including independents and undeclared voters, have informed the polling firm that they are unsatisfied with their new Democratic House members, Carol Shea-Porter and Paul W. Hodes , because they believe the freshman lawmakers have not exercised their anti-war muscles in the House.

But Sununu’s team shouldn’t celebrate just yet, said Bennett. He added that after the presidential primary dies down somewhat, he’s certain the Senate race will go back to being neck-and-neck.

“The race will tighten again,” Bennett said.

Sununu faces no competition for the Republican nomination and Shaheen faces minor competition from a former astronaut and Dartmouth Medical School professor Jay Buckey.

American Research Group Poll