By CQ Staff

The biggest issues in the presidential election, Iraq and the economy, play out differently in the 24 states holding primaries on Super Tuesday. CQ Politics talked with political observers in those states to flesh out why the economy, Iraq and a range of other issues are important to voters. We begin our series in the Northeast.

Five contiguous states are holding primaries on Feb. 5 with New York, the biggest delegate prize in the region for both parties, in the pivot. To the south of New York are New Jersey and Delaware, to the east are the New England states of Massachusetts and Connecticut.

Two of these states are home to two of the six remaining major-party presidential contenders: New York, which Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton represents in the Senate, and Massachusetts, where Republican Mitt Romney formerly served as governor. The region also is home to three candidates who already have dropped out of the presidential race, Sens. Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut and Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware on the Democratic side and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani on the Republican side.

NEW YORK

Gerald Benjamin

Political scientist and dean of the College of Liberal Arts and Science

State University of New York at New Paltz

“In New York, the war takes second seat to the economy. The economy is a compelling issue for two reasons: Wall Street and the banking industries in New York City drive the engine of the economy nationwide and is a top target for presidential candidates seeking funds, while persistent economic weakness, particularly in manufacturing, has hard‑hit upstate New York.”

Republicans are concerned about having a strong Republican presidential candidate “so they can retain their majority in the [New York state] Senate, which is the last bastion of the party’s strength in New York.”

Christopher Malone

Associate professor of Political Science

Pace University (New York City)

“New Yorkers, when we talk about the economy, obviously it’s about jobs. But it’s also about city services, since we’re such a public place with public transportation and hospitals . . . It affects us as much in terms of services the city can provide as much as it is about losing individual jobs.”

“The war in Iraq is the second most important issue for Democratic voters. On the Republican side, I think given that we’re in New York City, the issues of terrorism and security will probably be in the back [of the minds] of those voting in the Republican primary.”

Jay Jochnowitz

State editor

The Albany Times-Union

“Statewide, [the candidates] are on target if they’re talking about taxes, New York being one of the highest tax states in the country, so any candidate that comes in here with a message of something, some kind of relief, some kind of attention to New York, and something in the way of a lower federal bill is probably going to resonate to some degree.”

“The economic message plays very well upstate and I think what people like to hear, although everybody would like to hear the federal government’s cut its size and everything, upstate likes to hear they’re going to spend money up here. Anything that brings money.”

Donn Esmonde

Columnist

The Buffalo News

In western New York, the stagnant economy is the “one overriding, all encompassing, oppressive issue.”

“Pulling Buffalo out of the bottom of the economic well has always been the primary interest of voters around here. Who’s going to effect the change, who’s going to help us help ourselves. We just keep bleeding population, we just keep bleeding jobs. It’s almost like there’s a super-highway between Buffalo and Charlotte.”

“On the one hand, like Michigan, we’re trying to protect what we have left of the old heavy industry, auto manufacturing jobs, but on the other hand we’re trying to really get some traction and some new industry as well.”

Maurice Carroll

Director, Quinnipiac University Polling Institute

“There are no ideological issues and no specifics to New York. There’s always what can you get out of Washington and there’s the residue of 9/11 which counts, but that matters more in New Jersey than in New York.”

NEW JERSEY

Ingrid Reed

Policy Analyst and New Jersey Project Director

Eagleton Institute of Politics, Rutgers University

“Two of the issues that New Jersey voters have cared about were environmental issues (but they certainly haven’t been explicit in all the debates), and another one was maybe urban policies and transportation, that New Jersey has a higher stake, as New York does, in what the federal government does on transportation and so on.

“But I think when all is said and done, New Jerseyans are worried about the exact same things that the rest of the nation is and that’s the war and the economy.”

Peter Woolley

Professor of comparative politics and executive director of The PublicMind

Fairleigh Dickinson University

“Even though people recently are talking less about Iraq, that is the No. 1 backdrop issue to the race on both sides here in New Jersey. Certainly there are other issues, but that’s the one that won’t go away.” [The most recent poll by The PublicMind indicated 65 percent of New Jerseyans say the war was a mistake and only 23 percent approve of the job President Bush is doing.]

“People in New Jersey are very sensitive to housing prices, especially in Northern New Jersey and along the coast. Housing prices have had a huge run-up in the last decade or two when a lot of people were trying very hard to get into a tight housing market, so a lot of those same people are justifiably nervous now about the amount of debt they’ve taken on and the sagging prices and the length of time houses are on the market.”

“Republican appeals in New Jersey are a little different because New Jersey Republicans do not have the large conservative social base (of other states) . . . On social political issues they are much more moderate, much more liberal.”

“There are thousands of new voters who are declaring themselves Democrats. There are only hundreds who are declaring themselves Republicans ... That’s making the Republican side somewhat stagnant. The race is among the same old voters, while the Democrats are having a much more dynamic time.”

MASSACHUSETTS

Dorie Clark

Clark Strategic Communications

Somerville, Mass.

Referring to a mandatory health insurance plan signed into law by former Republican Gov. Mitt Romney : “It’s an important case study,” especially as affordable health care is a major issue in the state. “People are interested in how the presidential nominees’ proposals mirror or separate from what Massachusetts is putting forward.”

Frank Talty

Professor of Political Science

University of Massachusetts at Lowell

Voters are looking for the candidate with the best ability to manage the economic downturn, Talty said, especially as foreclosures in the state are generating front-page headlines, because they “have tripled in the last year.”

“It is going to get worse before it gets better . . . It scares everyone that owns real estate.”

The Iraq War “is still a deep-seated concern that we haven’t figured out what to do yet,” though he added that citizens in the state have “a more sophisticated understanding of the issue and they are looking for someone who has a handle on the situation.”

Michael Widmer

President, Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation

The economy has moved into a being a top issue among voters “only in the last few weeks,” (but) “the state never fully recovered from the 2003 recession  . . .  lost 200,000 jobs, but only half have been added back.”

CONNECTICUT

Gary Rose

Chairman of the Department of Government and Politics

Sacred Heart University

“In Connecticut, like the nation as a whole, the economy is on a lot of people’s minds,” Rose said. But he added that he believed “the Iraq War is still the principal issue heading into this primary.”

“Even though I know [the war] has been superseded by the economy in some other states, it still seems to be the foremost issue and I think it has to do with the strong anti-Bush sentiment that’s in the state now . . . And I think that’s probably going to drive the voting behavior.”

Kevin Rennie

Columnist

The Hartford Courant

Economic issues are less central because the state’s economy is doing well and there has been a pretty decent increase in job creation, Rennie said. He added that the cost of living is high, but it’s always high.

“Party ties have meant less and less over the years . . . It’s a state where primary voters do what they want. It’s hard to herd them. And there’s not much party machinery in Connecticut any more.”

Howard L. Reiter

Department Head, Political Science

University of Connecticut, Storrs

“New England is harder hit than some other places, and so fuel costs and that aspect of the economy will be on the agenda.”

“I think we’ll be lucky to get any kind of attention from the candidates because we are such a small state and we’ve got big neighbors also running. We’re not top priority for reasons of size, so we’ll probably get overlooked.”

DELAWARE

Sam Hoff,

Professor; History, Political Science and Philosophy Department

Delaware State University:

“Delaware is not immune to the economic plight that we’re in.”

“Health care, I believe, also is a concern . . . We’re looking at about 100,000 Delawareans — approximately one in seven Delawareans — without health insurance, and this certainly has ramifications as well, as one catastrophic illness can put someone’s family in debt for the rest of their lives, and that’s awful, awful scary. I think a large number of people are looking for ideas.”

“We have had a large Hispanic influx in Sussex County [in southern Delaware, which has a large agricultural sector]. It hasn’t caused the type of controversy that we’ve seen at the national level, but like any other state that has a large increase in a relatively short period of time, there are naturally challenges that come up with that . . . That’s been an issue.”

Joseph Pika

Professor, Dept.of Political Science and International Relations

University of Delaware

“Delawareans are very concerned about the economy, education, health care, and quality of life/sprawl. The housing construction downturn has had a major impact on both northern and southern Delaware, which has been growing at the most rapid pace of any East Coast state. Similarly, the financial sector’s problems have consequences for the many credit card companies that have located operations in the state. Finally, the economy’s slowdown has dire consequences for the two auto assembly plants that are already on the chopping block.”

“Education remains a major issue statewide and revising No Child Left Behind a top concern. Health care has been a concern throughout the term of the current incumbent governor on several fronts — active efforts to reduce cancer rates, quality of care provided in public facilities, Medicaid costs. The rapid growth of the elderly population [an influx of retirees] and high-needs [African-American and Hispanic] populations make access to quality care of growing importance in the future as well.

Priscilla Rakestraw

Republican National Committeewoman for Delaware

Rakestraw noted that over the years Delaware has transformed from a Republican state to a Democratic-leaning one, partly because of demographic changes that have seen residents of Democratic-leaning Pennsylvania and New Jersey move into the state. She said taxes aren’t as big an issue in Delaware as elsewhere because the state’s tax burden is relatively low. She added, though, that there is a lot of concern about the health of the economy, especially about the availability of good jobs.

Bob Benenson, Jessica Benton Cooney, Greg Giroux, Rachel Kapochunas and Marie Horrigan contributed to this report.