CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Feb. 5, 2008 – 2:13 a.m.
Super Tuesday: CQ Politics’ Eight Questions and Answers
By Rachel Kapochunas, CQ Staff
1. How many states are holding contests Feb. 5, and what types of contests will be held?
A total of 24 states, listed here, will hold presidential nominating events on Tuesday. Contests will be held by both parties in each state unless otherwise noted.
Alabama: Primary
Alaska: Republican presidential preference poll and Democratic caucuses
Arizona: Primary
Arkansas: Primary
California: Primary
Colorado: Caucuses
Connecticut: Primary
Delaware: Primary
Georgia: Primary
Idaho: Democratic caucuses
Illinois: Primary
Kansas: Democratic caucuses
Massachusetts: Primary
Minnesota: Caucuses
Missouri: Primary
Montana: Republican caucuses
New Jersey: Primary
New Mexico: Democratic primary
New York: Primary
North Dakota: Primary
Oklahoma: Primary
Tennessee: Primary
Utah: Primary
West Virginia: Republican convention
2. What times might election results be reported?
The West Virginia Republican convention begins meeting at 9:00 a.m. eastern time, so those results may be available by early afternoon.
For the rest of the Super Tuesday states holding primaries, polls begin closing at 7 p.m. eastern time in Georgia and continue to 11 p.m. eastern (8 p.m. pacific time) in California, with most closing at 8 p.m. eastern.
For states holding caucuses, most begin at 9 p.m. eastern time, so the results could begin coming in after 10 p.m. eastern, though most will be later.
3. What is the difference between a primary and a caucus and a convention?
A primary is a conventional election in which participants cast votes in private booths or cubicles or by absentee ballots. Some primaries on Feb. 5 are “closed,” meaning only those voters registered with a party can participate in that party’s contest; in some other states, independent or “unaffiliated” voters may participate in the party primary of their choice. Several states with Super Tuesday events do not register voters by party, so their primaries are “open” to all voters.
A caucus is essentially a party meeting at which participants express support for their favored candidates. The process varies from state to state. In Alaska, for example, Democrats participating in the Feb. 5 caucus will literally “fan out” and go to separate corners of the caucus rooms to publicly assert their support for a particular candidate. In other states, votes or secret ballots are held at the caucuses to determine the overall levels of candidate preferences.
A convention is another type of presidential nominating meeting that is similar to a caucus, only participation is limited, with party officials usually predominating. West Virginia Republicans are holding a convention on Feb. 5.
4. How many delegates are at stake on Feb. 5?
On Feb. 5, 2,062 Democratic delegates and 1,048 Republican delegates are at stake. That’s just slightly more than 50 percent of the Democrats’ total delegates and 44 percent of the Republicans’ total delegates, excluding delegates that the national parties have withheld from states that violated their scheduling rules for this year’s presidential nominating events.
5. Which Feb. 5 states provide the richest delegate prizes to the candidates?
Several delegate-rich states are holding contests on Feb. 5, which has made them prime targets for the candidates.
Population size is the leading factor in determining how many delegates each state receives. But there are other factors. For instance, a state can earn bonus delegates from a major party that has done particularly well there in presidential contests and other elections for statewide offices.
California, by far the nation’s most populous state, tops the Super Tuesday list for both parties with 441 Democratic delegates and 173 Republican delegates. New York, the nation’s third most-populous state and the second biggest voting on Super Tuesday, is next with 280 Democratic delegates and 101 Republican delegates.
After that, the Feb. 5 states with the most delegates vary by party.
On the Democratic side, Illinois holds 185 delegates , followed by New Jersey and Massachusetts with 127 and 121, respectively. All of those states have been Democratic strongholds in recent statewide elections.
Georgia, where Republicans have been dominant statewide of late, has 72 delegates, the third-highest number on the GOP side. But Illinois, despite the party’s downturn there, is next with 70, because it is the third most-populous state voting on Tuesday.
6. How are delegates allocated among the presidential candidates?
Pledged Democratic delegates in all states are awarded proportionally to candidates based on their percentages in the primaries or caucuses. A candidate must receive 15 percent support to qualify for delegates. Each state is also alloted unpledged Democratic delegates, known as “superdelegates,” with slots going to party leaders and elected officials who can name their own candidate allegiances irrespective of the voting results in their states.
Delegate allocation varies much more widely by state on the Republican side. Unlike the Democrats, many states’ Republican parties allocate delegates under a winner-take-all system that grants all of a state’s delegates to the winner of the overall statewide vote. Others employ a modified winner-take-all system, with all of a state’s at-large delegates going to the statewide winner, and the rest of the state’s delegates allotted by congressional district with the winner of each district receiving all of its delegates. Other states use winner-take-all for a fraction of their delegates. And a few states award Republican delegates proportionally to the primary or caucus results, the system used universally in all states’ Democratic contests. A very small number of states have no formal allocation plan.
The following is a breakdown of Feb. 5 Republican delegate allocations by state:
Alabama: Winner-take-all for statewide at-large delegates and for congressional district-level delegates, if a candidate receives 50 percent of the vote. Otherwise, at the congressional district level, the candidate with the first-place plurality gets all but one delegate, which goes to the second-place finisher (as long as that candidate has cleared a threshold of 20 percent of the vote). At the statewide level, if a candidate does not receive 50 percent, delegates are awarded proportionally among the candidates, with a 20 percent threshold to qualify for delegates
Alaska: Proportional allocation.
Arizona: Statewide winner-take-all.
Arkansas: Each candidate receiving 10 percent of the statewide vote receives one at-large delegate with the remaining at-large delegates allocated to the statewide majority winner. If there is no majority statewide winner, at-large delegates are allocated proportionally to the top three candidates. A majority winner in a congressional district gets all the delegates allotted to that district. If there is a plurality in a congressional district, the highest vote-getter receives two delegates and next highest receives one.
California: Winner-take-all at the statewide level for at-large delegates and at the congressional district level.
Colorado: Delegates chosen in the Republican caucuses are not bound to candidates.
Connecticut: Statewide winner-take-all.
Delaware: Statewide winner-take-all.
Georgia: Winner-take-all at the statewide level for at-large delegates and at the congressional district level.
Illinois: Congressional district delegates are allocated among the 19 congressional districts based on past Republican performance. District delegates are directly elected by the voters in a two-part primary that also includes a non-binding presidential preference vote that will have no bearing on how district delegates are selected. No formula for at-large delegates who are elected at the state convention.
Massachusetts: Proportional allocation based on the statewide vote, with a 15 percent threshold.
Minnesota: No allocation formula, as the preference vote at the Republican caucuses is non-binding.
Missouri: Statewide winner-take-all.
Montana: Statewide winner-take-all.
New Jersey: Statewide winner-take-all.
New York: Statewide winner-take-all.
North Dakota: Winner-take-all if one candidate receives 66.7 percent. Otherwise, delegates are allocated proportionally based on the statewide vote, with a 15 percent threshold.
Oklahoma: Winner-take-all at the statewide level for at-large delegates and at the congressional district level.
Tennessee: Winner-take-all for at-large delegates if one candidate receives 66.6 percent of the statewide vote, and in each congressional district if a candidate reaches that same threshold. If no candidate receives 66.6 percent, delegate allocation is proportional at each level, with a 20 percent threshold.
Utah: Statewide winner-take-all
West Virginia: Winner-take-all for at-large delegates based on the statewide vote at the Feb. 5 Republican convention. Congressional district-level delegates will be allocated during the party’s May 13 presidential primary.
7. So why are so many states voting on the same day?
Many states, in an acceleration of the gradual “front-loading” of the presidential nomination process that has been developing over recent election cycles, moved their nominating contests to Feb. 5 in the hopes of exerting more influence on the outcome of the parties’ presidential contests.
The reason that two dozen states specifically crammed onto Feb. 5 is that this is the date designated by both major parties as the earliest on which most states are permitted to hold nominating contests without penalty. In doing so, these states are respecting the letter of party rules, but not the spirit of party leaders who hoped to restrain the “front-loading” process.
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) itself gave special preferences to Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada and permitted Democrats in those states to hold earlier nominating contests without penalty (though the DNC hammered the Michigan and Florida Democratic parties for challenging the rules and scheduling primaries in January without permission, as both states were stripped of all of their allotted delegates to the Democratic National Convention this summer).
The Republican National Committee did not provide any waivers to state GOP affiliates that held actual delegate allocation events prior to Feb. 5, stripping all of them (including New Hampshire, home to the traditional first-in-the-nation primary) of half their national convention delegates. But the national party did not penalize Iowa’s state party for holding its caucuses on Jan. 3 nor Nevada Republicans for holding their caucuses Jan. 19 because those were deemed as non-binding contests.
8. Does the huge number of delegates at stake mean both parties’ nominees will effectively locked in by the Feb. 5 results?
Not necessarily. The 2008 presidential race has been highly competitive on both sides and mixed results on Feb. 5 would keep things that way. The candidate from each party who scores the most wins on Feb. 5 will benefit greatly, of course, but their competitors may not be out of the running just yet. Under that scenario, significant contests may be held in upcoming states such as Ohio and Texas on March 4.
On the Democratic side, if the identity of the prospective nominee remains ambiguous through the end of the nominating process in June, the preferences of the unpledged “superdelegates” could at least theoretically be decisive. Republicans do not have superdelegates.
For a Democrat to secure the party’s nomination outright, he or she needs 2,025 delegates; a Republican candidate needs 1,191 of that party’s delegates to secure the nomination.
Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain headed into Feb. 5 with the most Republican delegates awarded, 93, as former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney trailed with 77 delegates, according to the Associated Press. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee had secured 40 delegates.
Democratic Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York led the Democratic delegate race with 250 prior to Feb. 5, while Illinois Sen. Barack Obama had 193 delegates, according to the Associated Press (AP). These totals include both delegates earned in early primaries and caucuses, and the candidate endorsements by superdelegates who were surveyed by AP.




Comments
Why does the Democratic Party have so many more (double) the number of candidates than the Republican Party?
1. It is partly reflective of a time when there were a lot more Democrats than Republicans. 2. The Democrats award additional delegates, thru a v. v. complex formula, to jurisdictions which have proven more likely to vote Democratic based on past elections. 3. More Democrats want to go; for example, the Dems Abroad elect fractional delegates, with I think a third of a vote--but they still get a credental, sit on the floor of the convention, and vote, which is a gas. This is partly due to Democrats' belief that they govern their party through the convention. This might have been an issue for the GOP this yr if Thompson and then Huck hadn't split the stupid vote and let McCain up the other side; it is the McCain supporters who will go to this one, for example. Democrats want to go just b/c they're Democrats.
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