By Rachel Kapochunas, CQ Staff

Arizona Rep. John Shadegg pulled an unusual reversal Thursday when he revoked a retirement announcement he had made 10 days earlier, a decision he made in response to a heavy lobbying campaign by fellow House Republicans who urged him to change his mind and run for an eighth term. And local analysts say that Shadegg’s re-entry restores the GOP’s grip on Arizona’s 3rd Congressional District seat, which had appeared somewhat weakened with the veteran incumbent’s initial decision to move to the sidelines.

Although the 58-year-old Shadegg may have sown some confusion in his Phoenix-area base by going back and forth as he did, his long-term popularity and conservative profile appear to make him the favorite for re-election that he was before his short hiatus from the contest. CQ Politics, which had changed its rating on the race to the competitive Leans Republican category after Shadegg’s retirement, has shifted it back to Republican Favored.

Shadegg’s decision was welcome news to national Republican officials, who already had their hands full with an “open seat” problem before Shadegg’s unexpected Feb. 11 announcement that he would not run. Even with Shadegg back in his own race, the party has a whopping total of 24 seats left open for the November elections by its incumbents who are voluntarily retiring or seeking other offices. The Democrats currently have just five seats left open voluntarily by departing members.

Democrats will certainly try to test whether Shadegg’s actions constitute the kind of flip-flop that could shake loose the support of some 3rd District voters. Even before the events of the past couple of weeks, Democratic strategists noted that Shadegg had slipped to 59 percent of the vote in 2006 — his lowest vote share ever — against an unheralded Democratic opponent. This year’s likely Democratic challenger, tax attorney Bob Lord, grabbed attention by raising $613,000 through the end of last year, and claims a pro-business sensibility that he thinks will play well in the conservative-leaning district.

“His behavior over the last 10 days calls into question whether he cares more about pleasing Washington insiders or serving the people of Arizona,” Lord said about Shadegg in a statement Thursday.

But the more than 140 Republican members of Congress who signed a letter last week asking Shadegg to reconsider retirement praised him as a leader in the conservative movement. The effort was spearheaded by Shadegg allies in the conservative House Republican Study Committee, which he formerly chaired. Shadegg’s father was a political adviser to longtime Arizona Sen. Barry Goldwater, the 1964 presidential nominee and conservative icon.

This is something that Shadegg undoubtedly will wield in renewing his appeal to voters in a district that gave President Bush 58 percent of the vote — and where Republicans likely will get some top-of-the-ticket help this November if Arizona Sen. John McCain , as now expected, wins the Republican presidential nomination.

“In voter registration, Republicans outnumber Democrats,” said Fred Solop, a professor at Northern Arizona University and director of the school’s Social Research Laboratory, adding, “Conservatives define that district.”

“This will be a campaign issue in the short run,” said Solop said concerning Shadegg’s un-retirement. “But in the long run, I don’t think this will affect the race.”

Shadegg also raised more than $1 million for his campaign fund through 2007, thus offsetting the strong fundraising skills exhibited by Democratic newcomer Lord. “Even though he has a better-financed opponent running this time, there’s little danger that he would have lost the seat,” said Bruce Merrill, professor and director of the Cronkite/Eight Arizona State University poll.

It appears that Shadegg will, however, have to deal with an opponent in the Sept. 2 Republican primary. Though several Republicans exited the race as quickly as they entered in between Shadegg’s announcements, former state legislator Steve May reconfirmed his commitment to the race Thursday and says he is moving forward with his campaign.

Merrill says that May, who is openly gay, faces tough odds in this strongly conservative constituency.