By Greg Giroux, CQ Staff

It would be difficult to find Democrats in Indianapolis who say party member André Carson , a local officeholder in Indiana’s capital city, will lose a special election March 11 in the state’s 7th District. After all, the left-leaning district was represented by his late grandmother, Julia Carson, who died in December. But an unusual election schedule means some Democrats have to prepare for that contingency.

That’s because the special election, in which Carson is the favorite over Republican state representative Jon Elrod, is being held after the deadline for candidates to file for a May 6 primary election that applies to the November election. The filing deadline for those primaries was noon Friday.

So candidates had to file for the May 6 primary election without knowing who will emerge from the March 11 election balloting as the incumbent — and who will be a defeated candidate. While the district has a generally Democratic lean, Elrod has strong campaign skills that suggest a Republican victory is not out of the question.

Seven Democrats joined Carson in filing candidacy papers by Friday’s deadline, according to an unofficial list provided by Indiana election officials. Along with Carson, the most serious candidates in the Democratic field are state Reps. David Orentlicher and Carolene Mays, along with Woodrow A. Myers Jr., a former health commissioner for the state of Indiana and later in New York City.

Orentlicher and Mays competed last month against Carson for the Democratic ballot slot in the March 11 special election. A special nominating caucus chose Carson, who won a slender majority of the votes of the local Democratic activists who participated in the caucus.

The Democratic field also includes Joseph C. “Hippie Joe” Stockett III, and Pierre Quincy Pullins, who took 2 percent and 1 percent respectively as Democratic candidates in a 2006 primary that Julia Carson won easily. Frances Nelson Williams and Larry Lamont Ledford, about whom information could not immediately be ascertained, also are seeking the Democratic nomination.

The Republican field for the full term includes Elrod and two lesser-known candidates, Catherine “Cat” Ping and Larry Shouse, who took 5 percent of the vote in a 2007 Republican primary for Indianapolis mayor.

Other Races Take Shape

Democrats are the defending party in four of the other eight Indiana congressional districts — including three wrested from Republican control in the 2006 election.

In the southeastern 9th District, it seems clear that Democratic Rep. Baron P. Hill and Republican former Rep. Mike Sodrel will be November opponents in the fourth consecutive election year. Hill, who served in the House from 1999 through 2004, was the victor in 2002 and in 2006 and the loser in 2004.

Hill has three minor primary opponents, while Sodrel is unopposed in the Republican primary.

In the 8th District, which takes in Evansville, Terre Haute and rural territory in western Indiana, freshman Democratic Rep. Brad Ellsworth will be opposed by Republican Greg Goode, a former congressional aide and official with Indiana State University in Terre Haute. Ellsworth trounced Republican Rep. John Hostettler in the 2006 election.

In the 2nd District, which takes in South Bend, Rep. Joe Donnelly is unopposed in the primary and will face the winner of a four-candidate Republican primary that includes Luke Puckett, a businessman; Tony Zirkle, who lost a 2006 primary to Chris Chocola, the two-term Republican incumbent Donnelly defeated; John N. Frame; and Joseph Roush.

Early last year, Puckett began preparing a campaign against Donnelly that he terminated in June. But Puckett decided to jump back into the race and filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission in late January.

Indiana’s 5th District, which includes part of Indianapolis and some suburbs, has such a strongly Republican lean that the real contest there is the GOP primary between 13-term Rep. Dan Burton and John McGoff, a physician who is also the former coroner in Marion County (Indianapolis). Clayton L. Alfred also is running in the Republican primary.

The incumbents in the other four districts — three Republicans and one Democrat — appear politically secure at the moment. But one district to watch is the northeastern 3rd, where Mark Souder is seeking an eighth term in his Republican-leaning district in and around Fort Wayne. His Democratic opponent will be Michael A. Montagano, a lawyer who has almost as much cash on hand ($181,000) as Souder ($211,000), who has made no secret of his distaste for fundraising. Souder was held to 54 percent of the vote in 2006 against Democrat Thomas Hayhurst, a city councilman in Fort Wayne.

Indiana is one of 11 states holding a contest for governor this year, and Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels is unopposed in the Republican primary as he seeks a second term. He’ll face the winner of a Democratic primary that includes Jill Long Thompson, a former member of the U.S. House, and Jim Schellinger, an architect.