By Jesse Stanchak, CQ Staff

Idaho’s now-lengthy history as a Republican Party stronghold has made it about as politically stable as a state can be. With only two U.S. House seats to go with its two Senate seats, Idaho politicians with congressional ambitions tend to have to wait for a seat to open up.

Waiting may be paying off this year for Lt. Gov. Jim Risch, who is running for the U.S. Senate seat left open by retiring and scandal-scarred Republican Larry E. Craig . Risch stands out as the strong front-runner among the eight Republicans who met the recent candidate filing deadline for the state’s May 27 Senate primary.

Risch — a lawyer, businessman and rancher who served a long tenure in the state Senate — has been aiming to run for a top office since his election in 2002 as lieutenant governor. He initially appeared headed toward a bid for governor in 2006 after the Republican incumbent, Dirk Kempthorne , made a surprise decision to not seek a second term. But Risch instead ran for re-election to his lower office, deferring to another Republican, three-term U.S. Rep. C. L. “Butch” Otter , who was his predecessor and had spent 14 years as lieutenant governor.

Risch actually ended up serving as governor between Kempthorne’s May 2006 resignation to become secretary of the Interior under President Bush and the January 2007 inauguration of Otter, who was elected the previous November. Risch’s term, while brief, was a popular one that gave him statewide visibility.

Craig had long been rumored to be considering retirement from the Senate seat he has held for three terms, and Risch established himself as a potential candidate for a possible 2008 race to succeed him. That became a certainty last summer in the wake of the controversy that enveloped the incumbent.

In August Craig admitted, following news reports, that he had pled guilty to disorderly conduct after being arrested at the Minneapolis-St. Paul airport by a male police officer conducting a bathroom sex sting. Craig denied any wrongdoing and said he took the guilty plea in panicky hopes of avoiding publicity over the incident. He nonetheless initially said he would resign his seat at the end of September 2007, and Risch emerged as the consensus front-runner to be Otter’s appointee to fill the vacated Senate seat. While Craig reversed himself and decided to serve out the remainder of his term, he stuck to his decision not to seek re-election, and Risch again moved to the top of the list of possible Republican contenders.

None of Risch’s seven filed opponents for the Republican Senate nomination is a well-known figure, making it likely that he will claim the party’s ballot spot for the November election. And in a state that gave Bush 68 percent of its votes when he ran for re-election in 2004, being the Republican nominee would qualify Risch as a solid favorite to keep the seat in GOP hands. Frank Church was the last Democrat to hold an Idaho Senate seat, from 1957 to 1981.

The general election campaign may not be a walkover for the Republican nominee, though. The likely winner of among the two Democratic primary candidates, former U.S. Rep. Larry LaRocco, is as familiar a figure as his party can present. His tenure as the representative of Idaho’s 1st Congressional District from 1991 to 1995 marked the last time the Democrats held a congressional seat in Idaho. And a Risch-LaRocco matchup would be a rematch of sorts. The two faced off in the 2006 race for lieutenant governor, with Risch winning by 58 percent to 39 percent.

The independent candidacy of former elk rancher Rex Rammel could add an interesting element to the Senate race, as his candidacy is prompted in part by a personal feud with Risch. Rammel, who was set to run in the Republican primary, switched at the last moment after conceding that Risch appeared to have the nomination in the bag.

Rammel’s candidacy has its roots in Risch’s brief tenure as governor. In September 2006, some untagged elk escaped from Rammel’s ranch and Risch ordered state wildlife officials to shoot them. Rammel also cites a number of other confrontations with state wildlife officials over the past six years as fuel for his run.

The other candidate who filed to run for the Senate seat as an independent staged a longshot bid for governor in 2006 as Marvin Richardson, but had his name legally changed to “Pro Life” for his 2008 Senate bid. The organic strawberry farmer is campaigning to outlaw abortion and calls for abortion doctors to be subject to the death penalty.

Since Pro Life is now his legal name, he must be listed on the ballot as such. Idaho Secretary of State Ben Ysursa has introduced legislation, however, that would require the ballot to say that Pro Life was formerly known as Marvin Richardson. The bill passed the Idaho Senate unanimously and is currently pending in the state House.

Ysursa has said he is concerned voters would think “Pro Life” was a policy position they could vote for and not a person. If a voter marked both “Pro Life” and another candidate on the ballot, the ballot would be invalid.

The other congressional race to watch in Idaho is in the 1st Congressional District, where Republican Bill Sali — a longtime state representative burdened by a reputation for combative relationships with some of his legislative colleagues — won the seat left open in 2006 by Otter by the unusually close outcome of 50 percent to 45 percent. His vote share was well below average for a Republican candidate in a district where Bush had taken 68 percent in 2004.

Though Sali has stirred little controversy during his freshman House term and was even elected president of the small Republican Class of 2006, he could face a competitive rematch with the Democrat who made a strong upset bid two years ago, former technology company executive Larry Grant.

But to get that second shot, Grant would have to survive a primary contest with a substantial Democratic opponent. He will face Walt Minnick, a Boise businessman who served in the Office of Management and Budget during the Republican presidency of Richard M. Nixon but ran for the Senate in 1996 as the Democratic challenger to Craig. Minnick was defeated in that race by 57 percent to 40 percent.

Sali also has drawn primary competition, from Iraq war veteran and political neophyte Matt Salisbury. Sali has plenty of experience with handling a Republican primary, however, having weathered a six-person race for the open-seat nomination in 2006 in which he emerged victorious with just 26 percent of the vote.

CQ Politics currently rates the Senate race as Safe Republican and the 1st District House race as Republican Favored.

First posted March 28, 2008 2:31 p.m.

Correction
Corrects to say that Bill Sali served as a state representative.