CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
March 28, 2008 – 4:01 p.m.
Minnesota Parties Painfully Inch Toward Picking Congressional Candidates
By Marie Horrigan, CQ Staff
Die-hard political junkies may actually get their fill over the next eleven weekends in Minnesota, as the state parties move closer to selecting their congressional candidates for the November elections.
The Minnesota congressional district conventions are an intermediate step in the complicated and drawn-out caucus system that started with precinct caucuses in February and ends with statewide conventions after Memorial Day. But even then, it’s not over: the state’s primary elections are Sept. 9.
The headline for race-watchers will be District 1, among the most competitive races in the country and one of Saturday’s Republican conventions. CQ Politics rates District 1 Leans Democrat, indicating first-term Democratic Rep. Tim Walz holds a slight advantage in the race. Walz, a former teacher, ousted six-term Republican Rep. Gil Gutknecht 53 percent to 47 percent in 2006.
There is a lot riding on the GOP’s candidate selection. Republicans argue they can win back the district, which gave President Bush 51 percent of the vote in 2004. They have three candidates in the field — two state legislators and one first-timer. State Sen. Dick Day and Rep. Randy Demmer lead the field in fundraising with $210,000 and $206,000 respectively for 2007, the most recent figures. Brian Davis, an oncologist at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, raised $161,000 in 2007 including a $46,000 self-loan.
Minnesota’s conventions generally are attended by the party faithful. Republicans in the 1st District have not participated in a convention in quite a while, since Gutknecht held the seat for six terms. Duane Quam, chairman of the 1st District GOP, said party members were enthusiastic and predicted about 300 people would participate.
Candidates generally abide by the endorsements at the congressional district conventions, dropping out to allow the parties to coalesce behind a candidate far ahead of the scheduled September primary. But, regardless of the outcome of the conventions, Day is forcing a primary by refusing to participate Saturday.
Mark Drake, spokesman for the Minnesota Republican Party, said the party chairman has tried unsuccessfully to dissuade Day from bypassing the caucus system.
In discussing the status of the race, Drake focused on what he said were Democrat Walz’s vulnerabilities. The party views Walz as “an incredibly vulnerable incumbent who was elected in a very good year for the Democrats who does not represent the district very well at all,” he said.
Walz, meanwhile, has outpaced his GOP challengers in fundraising, pulling in $1.2 million throughout 2007 with $793,000 on hand by the end of the year.
Saturday’s other conventions — in the 2nd and 8th Districts — are unlikely to produce surprises. In the 2nd District, which covers the suburbs of the Twin Cities, Republican Rep. John Kline is overwhelmingly favored for a fourth term in a race CQ Politics rates as Safe Republican.
In the 8th District Democratic Rep. James L. Oberstar , chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, is all but assured an 18th term.
No Republican has yet signed on to challenge Oberstar for the northeastern district. “We hope somebody steps forward tomorrow, but we do not have anybody yet,” said Ted Lovdahl, chairman of the 8th Congressional District Republican Party.
CQ Politics rates the 8th District race Safe Democrat.
Republicans hold three more congressional district conventions on April 5th (Districts 4, 5 and 6) and the final two conventions on April 19 (Districts 3 and 7).
Democrats start their congressional district caucus season on April 12 with the convention for the hotly contested 3rd Congressional District seat. Republican Rep. Jim Ramstad ’s Sept. 17th retirement announcement threw the race for the swing district wide open. Two Democrats — Iraq war veteran Ashwin Madia and state Sen. Terri E. Bonoff — are in a tight battle for their party’s endorsement in the open seat race. State Rep. Erik Paulsen is the only Republican running for the 3rd District.
CQ Politics rates the race No Clear Favorite, our most competitive category.
Democrats are scheduled to hold the 4th District convention on April 19 while conventions for the 1st, 5th and 6th districts are scheduled for April 26. Conventions in the 2nd and 8th districts are scheduled for May 3 and the 7th District convention is scheduled for May 17.
The Minnesota Republican Party’s statewide convention is scheduled for May 29-31 and the Democrats‘ is June 6-8. Both party conventions will be in Rochester.




Comments
I'd disagree with the "safe" republican categorization. The constituents of MN-2 are growing tired of Kline, he had to be petitioned to hold meetings with the citizens of the district. Add that on to growing enthusiasm for expanded health care coverage, tiring of the administrations course in Iraq, which Kline has supported from day one, and a poor economy and incumbent President Kline will be looking at a much harder campaign. Also his challenger, Steve Sarvi, an Iraq War vet, has the bio and experience to successfully take the seat. He will be the strongest candidate to run against Kline to date.
Kyle: As much as I wish you were right, Kline is probably still in the safe category. However, as the DFL campaign unfolds it should become more competitive. You mention some of the reasons Kline has lost some popularity. However, he is popular for his general support of our Veterans (I say general as many of his votes have not shown the level of support our Veterans deserve.) The other topic not mentioned is Kline's carpet-bagger reputation. He moved to Minnesota to run for Congress. He moved to the Metro area to run in a different disctrict, until he found a majority he could convince he would represent. Instead of representing Minnesotans and Minnesota values, he continues to represent the interests of those in other states. It is a shame he did not run in Texas or Virginia.
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