CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
April 2, 2008 – 6:21 p.m.
Cracks May Be Showing in Clinton’s Pennsylvania Firewall
By CQ Staff
As Illinois Sen. Barack Obama makes a big push in Pennsylvania, New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton appears to be losing some of her once-substantial lead, according to the latest polls.
Clinton still leads in three of the four polls released yesterday and today, but in every poll, including the first in which Obama took a lead (although, a statistically insignificant one), she has dropped at least a few points.
Obama moved into a 45 percent to 43 percent lead over Hillary Clinton in a March 31-April 1 survey conducted by Public Policy Polling. While the lead is not statistically significant — the margin of error is 2.8 percent — it marks the first time in any of the polls taken there this year that Obama has caught up to Clinton, who had enjoyed double-digit leads most of the way. Two polls yesterday had Clinton still ahead, but both noted erosion in her support. The last PPP poll a little over two weeks ago had Clinton ahead by 26 points.
PPP’s Dean Debnam said, “the major movement in Obama’s direction in Pennsylvania could be an indication that Democrats in that state think it’s time to wrap it up.”
But the Quinnipiac poll conducted March 24-31 says Clinton still leads 50 percent to 41 percent, which is 3 points lower for her than its mid-March survey . The margin of error is 2.5 percent.
“Her strength is her clear advantage among white voters — blue collar whites, less educated whites, economically hurting whites, that group known famously as Reagan Democrats in the Keystone State,” said Quinnipiac’s Clay Richards. “Obama is marshalling all his forces, but despite his eloquent dialogue on the race issue, Pennsylvania Democrats are unmoved. So Far.”
On Monday, two polls showed Clinton ahead of Obama by statistically significant margins, but one poll had her once double-digit lead down to single digits, and the other indicated some slippage as well. Rasmussen Reports had put Clinton’s lead at 47 percent to 42 percent while SurveyUSA gave her a more generous 53 percent to 41 percent.
Pennsylvania with its 188 delegates (with 158 of them at stake on April 22) is crucial to Clinton’s survival, given Obama’s lead in the delegate count. The Associated Press count has Obama ahead 1,632 to 1,500. What raises the stakes even more is that polls show Obama has a big lead in the May 6 North Carolina primary which has 134 delegates. These states are the two biggest prizes left on the primary trail.
PPP says that Obama leads in all age groups except senior citizens and is cutting into Clinton’s advantage among white voters (79 percent of the sample), where Clinton’s edge is now 50 percent to 34 percent. Among the 16 percent of the black voter sample, Obama leads 75 percent to 17 percent.
Forty-eight percent of voters say the economy is the top campaign issue while 29 percent cite Iraq. All other issues are in single digits. Clinton has a smaller edge than usual among those most concerned about the economy, leading Obama by only 47 percent to 42 percent. On Iraq, Obama leads Clinton 46 percent to 40 percent.
One sharp difference between PPP and Quinnipiac is how the candidates are doing along gender lines. PPP says Clinton leading 49 percent to 39 percent among women voters and Obama leading 51 percent to 36 percent among men voters. Quinnipiac says Clinton leads 54 percent to 37 percent among women and has tied Obama among men voters at 46 percent each.
In Quinnipiac’s poll, 48 percent regard Clinton favorably versus 42 percent who do not. Obama’s ratio is 49 percent to 31 percent.
To follow all the latest polls, visit CQ Politics Poll Tracker
Comments
In college I remember taking a class on political polling methods. Online and in the media I see all these various results from the different polls, but while, admittedly, I haven't look that hard, I see no information on how the polls were constructed. It matters. In the past when the corner lots were more expensive, Republican voters tended to live there and too many of these in your sample could influence the results. More famously, when Dewey was incorrectly predicted over Truman, it was because the poll had been done by telephone at a time when it was primarily the better off who owned phones. Does anyone pay attention to this type of thing anymore?
Retired teacher: All kinds of thought goes into these kinds of issues (by reputable pollsters, that is). Which isn't to say they've all been adequately addressed! You can find a running conversation on the innards of current polls here: http://www.pollster.com/blogs ...-- you may find it quite interesting.
It appears that no matter what poll you read or how it was done, Mrs. Clinton is losing support and that is a good thing for the country. She has been behaving like she has lost some of her marbles and that would be very bad for the country if she ever made it back to the White House. She was bad enough the last time she lived there with all the unsavory acts she committed that now she would be EVEN WORSE IF THAT IS POSSIBLE.!!!!!!
Bonnie, Yea, I really hated when the Clinton's were in the White House. We were at peace, the economy was healthy, there was no deficit and the stock market was surging. Yea, we don't want another Clinton in the White House to bring back that misery.
Ya Mark when BILL Clintion was in the white house not Hill. What did Hill do in the white house? No one knows, by her account she was dodging fire in Kosovo, bringing peace to Ireland (when those involved in the process say she did nothing). So if we can't take her word for what she did or did not do, who knows what she did. What has she done in the Sen, name one bill she has her name on. She is a liar, and will do anything to win.
I think the cracks will break when rural PA sees how the CLinton have leveraged their public position for personal gain, and why they are fighting to the death (of the party?) to get back to the troph...
Hillary Clinton is already TOAST and her giant ego can not come to grips with that reality. She does not have enough good judgement or real expericne for the top job. Neither of course does the pathetic old fool McCain. Well, kiddies that leaves one good man left standing and his name is Obama!
And then there were the 500,000+ plus who died in a genocide in Rawanda and the deregulation that concentrated media ownership, giving us right-wing radio and TV commentators endlessly with no available access to other points of view, and NAFTA, how great that has been, did you hear the sucking sound as jobs left America? And Prez. Clinton allowed the banking act which separated investment banks from financial instituions to end, thus causing the housing mess we are in, currently. Plus the disgrace of the Monica affair on National News every night. Yeah, I'm looking forward to all of that in White House again, NOT!!! And I'm a life-long Democrat.
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