By Greg Giroux, CQ Staff

Democratic Rep. Zack Space , an Ohio freshman, appears to be in much stronger shape in his bid for re-election than could have been anticipated 15 months ago, when he entered Congress as one of the biggest beneficiaries of the strongly anti-Republican campaign year of 2006.

The improved outlook for Space has prompted CQ Politics to change its rating on the race in southeastern Ohio’s 18th District to Democrat Favored from Leans Democratic.

The ratings change means that the Ohio 18 contest appears less competitive, giving Space a strong edge, while still acknowledging the possibility that the Republicans could rebound before November and even score an upset. The rating is subject to change at any time.

The typically strong conservative leanings of 18th District voters — President Bush took 57 percent of the vote there when he ran for re-election in 2004 — had Space perched precariously near the top of the GOP’s target list when this election cycle began.

But the Republicans still are struggling to recover from the damage done by the downfall of once-popular Republican Rep. Bob Ney, who dropped his bid for a seventh House term well into the 2006 campaign and then pled guilty to federal corruption charges related to his ties to convicted influencing-peddling lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

Furthermore, the Republican nominated in the March 4 primary to challenge Space — Fred Dailey, a former state agriculture director — has a relatively low political profile, and a dangerously low amount of money in his campaign treasury. Updated campaign finance reports that both candidates recently filed with the Federal Election Commission show Dailey had just $36,000 left in his campaign account when April began, compared to the nearly $1 million in cash on hand reported by Space.

That is one of the most lopsided fundraising margins among the 30 districts that Democrats wrested from Republican control in the 2006 election. Ohio’s 18th has multiple media markets, and it is a difficult district to traverse and build name identification.

Dailey’s low cash total owes in part to the contested primary election he faced, which he won with 39 percent of the vote over three opponents. It is unclear if the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) — the GOP’s House campaign arm, which spent lavishly in this district in 2006 in an unsuccessful effort to salvage the party’s hold on the seat — will use its own scarce funds to make a serious attempt in this year’s race.

Space nonetheless can’t take for granted his race in a conservative-leaning and largely rural district that is more likely than not to back Arizona Sen. John McCain as the Republican presidential nominee over either of the senators seeking the Democratic nomination, Barack Obama of Illinois or Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York. Space’s easy 62 percent to 38 percent over Republican state Sen. Joy Padgett appears an aberration, abetted by Padgett’s image as a past political ally of the scandal-tarnished Ney.

Republican officials are not conceding the district. The NRCC included Space in a recent release that linked him and other House Democrats to Democratic presidential contender Obama, who the GOP has hammered for saying that small-town voters have become “bitter” over poor economic conditions that lead them to “cling” to guns, religion and other social “wedge” issues. The NRCC also has criticized Space for not signing a House discharge petition that would expedite consideration of a border enforcement bill aimed at cracking down on illegal immigration.

Space’s political strengths included committee assignments that are well-tailored to his district and legislative interests — Agriculture, Transportation and Infrastructure, and Veterans Affairs — as well as one of the least liberal voting records among House Democrats in the current 110th Congress.