By Madison Powers, CQ Guest Columnist

The conventional wisdom now seems to be that it is only a matter of time until Sen. Hillary Clinton leaves the Democratic primary contest. It’s supposed to be a simple matter of the delegate math at this late stage.

A recent article in the Politico suggested that the inevitable was being denied in media coverage that makes it seem like the race is close when in fact it is not. While Clinton’s new post-Pennsylvania motto is “the tide is turning,” more and more observers seem to agree that the tide has already turned, and that it is not in Clinton’s favor. One can’t listen to the electoral math gurus like MSNBC’s Chuck Todd without a sense that the odds for Hillary are getting slim. David Brooks even went so far as to put the figure at only 5 percent.

For those who follow the online electronic markets, such as Intrade and Iowa Electronic Markets, the collective judgments of the betting world present a less sanguine picture. The current estimate is roughly 5 to 1 in favor of Obama over Clinton, but slightly below the almost 6 to 1 spread a couple of months ago. These are steep but not insurmountable odds.

For those who share the growing view that it is a matter of when, and not if, Clinton will exit the race, there is another piece of emerging conventional wisdom. The claim is that she will not carry the fight all the way to the convention.

There are good theories to back up that assessment. The Clintons want to remain politically relevant and are too prudent to risk the damage that would be done to their own reputations. They don’t want to be the spoilers who pursue their own interests over that of the Party and thereby deprive the Democrats of a victory in November.

But the evidence thus far seems to tell a different story. All the theories put forward for why this thing won’t end badly look like a recommendation, dressed up as prediction, by people who know full well what the Clintons’ intentions may be.

Representative James Clyburn recently pointed to President Clinton’s “bizarre” behavior and the growing sense he detects among those who doubt that the Clinton team is either sufficiently prudent in regard to their own futures or restrained enough to let party interests trump personal ambition.

Then there are Senator Clinton’s own words. She told FOX News’ Greta Van Susteren, “You know, you can always go to the convention. That’s what credential fights are for.” Whatever latitude with the truth the Clintons may take in reporting the past, there is little reason to doubt them when they tell us what they plan to do in the future.

The next question is whether we have any evidence that the Clintons or their supporters are taking any active steps toward extending their run beyond the primary season. There too, we have considerable evidence.

There are two crucial steps along the way to the convention opening on August 25th. The first item of business at the Convention in Denver is the report of the Credentials Committee, and the second is the report of the Rules and Bylaws Committee. Both committees meet in advance to consider pending challenges and issue a report, quite likely a majority and minority report that will be sent forward to the convention as a whole.

On May 31st, the Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws committee meets to consider a petition asking that half of the pledged delegates from the disputed Michigan and Florida Democratic presidential primaries be counted, together with all of the superdelegates from those two states.

The likely outcome is uncertain, but two facts bear notice. First, the Rules and Bylaws Committee stripped both states of all their delegates, but it is arguable whether they had the authority to do so, given that the only unambiguous part of the set penalty was that there would be loss of half of the pledged delegates.

The Committee upped the ante on both states, and still both states went ahead with their accelerated primary schedules in defiance of the warning. A win for the Clinton camp on either or both challenges puts a considerable number of new delegates in the Clinton column.