By Jesse Stanchak, CQ Staff

Freshman Rep. Bill Sali , R-Idaho, may have a primary challenger Tuesday, but the competition is nowhere near the level he faced two years ago.

Challenger Matt Salisbury is a first-time candidate short on both money and exposure who does not differ significantly from Sali on most issues. Salisbury’s status as an Iraq War veteran has given him some credibility in the district, however, and he may still post respectable numbers Tuesday night.

Owing to Idaho’s strongly conservative tendencies, the winner of the primary will most likely win the general election. Sixty-eight percent of 1st District residents voted for President Bush in 2004.

CQ Politics rates the November race as Republican Favored. The district would be considered Safe Republican, but Sali won by a surprisingly small amount (5 percentage points) in 2006.

It’s not surprising that Sali drew a primary challenger in his first re-election bid, given his history of intraparty conflict. Before coming to Congress, Sali was known for having a blunt demeanor that even some of his fellow Republicans — including 2nd District Rep. Mike Simpson — found abrasive.

Sali managed to tone down his behavior once he got to Congress, even becoming president of his freshman class. Still, resentment lingers for some Idaho Republicans. After all, 74 percent of them voted for someone else when Sali won a six-person primary two years ago.

“Sali has among the highest unfavorables of any member of the House,” says Idaho pollster Greg Smith, referring to a polling metric that measures negative associations with a person. Last week Smith conducted a poll of 300 likely Republican primary voters that indicated 46 percent of voters viewed Sali unfavorably with 32 percent viewing him favorably.

Salisbury and Sali have similar views on everything from abortion to taxes, emphasizing less government spending and conservative stances on social issues. The most substantive difference between the two men is on the budget. Salisbury has pledged to request no earmarks, whereas Sali has taken part in requesting more than $10 million in spending, according to Citizens Against Government Waste.

Salisbury has also said he will not take money from political action committees and that he will never use a pre-recorded “robo-calls” when campaigning.

PAC money was a major factor in Sali’s 2006 primary victory, when financial help from single issues PACs and conservative groups like the Club for Growth helped put him over the top of a very competitive field. Sali may need help from similar groups again this cycle, as the campaign overspent during the 2006 general election and remains in debt. The campaign has $135,673 in debt and $157,694 in cash on hand as of the May 7 pre-primary filings.

The Sali campaign has typically refused to engage Salisbury. It has not heavily advertised, and Sali backed out of scheduled debate, claiming his schedule was too busy.

On the Democratic side of the ballot, businessman Walt Minnick is running unopposed. Minnick was spared a costly primary battle this year when 2006 nominee Larry Grant dropped out in April. Grant was the former technology executive who held Sali to a 5 percent margin of victory that year, no mean feat for an Idaho Democrat.

“I’d go so far as to say I was very surprised by [Grant’s] exit,” pollster Smith said. “But Minnick brings a lot of his own money to the table. And he’ll spend it, whereas Grant did have some money but was reluctant to spend it. He may have taken some heat in the party for that.”