CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Updated June 1, 2008 – 3:21 p.m.
What the Swing States of 2004 Look Like Now
By CQ Staff
There were 11 states in the 2004 election that were decided by five points or less. CQ Politics took a look at what the most recent polls are saying about them now.
Four years ago, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry , the Democratic nominee for President, won Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and New Hampshire. President Bush won Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and New Mexico.
It is difficult to draw an overall conclusion about what shifts may have occurred, because in some states, different polls have produced different results.
Here’s a state-by-state look. Round-ups of all the states for which general election match-up polls are available (as are Senate race polls) in CQ Politics Poll Tracker.
• Minnesota:Kerry beat Bush 51.1 percent to 47.6 percent. Both Obama and Clinton lead McCain 53 percent to 38 percent, in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 22. A Minneapolis Star Tribune poll conducted May 12-15 showed Obama ahead of McCain 51 percent to 38 percent and Clinton leading McCain 49 percent to 40 percent.
• Oregon:Kerry beat Bush 51.3 percent to 47.2 percent. Obama leads McCain in a general election match-up for Oregon by 52 percent to 38 percent while Clinton is ahead by 46 percent to 40 percent in a May 7 survey conducted by Rasmussen Reports. In mid-April, SurveyUSA had Obama ahead 51 percent to 42 percent while Clinton ran statistically even with McCain.
• Pennsylvania:Kerry beat Bush 50.9 percent to 48.4 percent. Obama leads McCain 46 percent to 40 percent with a 2.4 percent margin of error, in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted May 13-20. Clinton is ahead 50 percent to 37 percent. In a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 16-18,Obama has a 48 percent to 40 percent lead over McCain with 12 percent undecided.
• Wisconsin:Kerry beat Bush 49.7 percent to 49.3 percent. Obama leads McCain 48 percent to 42 percent with 10 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 16-18. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. SurveyUSA did not poll on Clinton. This race is listed as “stays Democrat” based on the most recent poll although a May 5 poll by Rasmussen Reports had McCain ahead of either Obama or Clinton by 47 percent to 43 percent with a 4.5 percent margin of error.
• Colorado:Bush beat Kerry 51.7 percent to 47 percent. Obama leads McCain 48 percent to 42 percent with 5 percent undecided and 5 percent preferring someone else, in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 19. The two were in a statistical dead heat in Rasmussen’s last poll conducted mid-April. If Hillary Clinton were the Democratic nominee, McCain would be leading her 47 percent to 44 percent with 7 percent preferring other. The margin of error is 4 points.
• Iowa:Bush beat Kerry 49.9 percent to 49.2 percent. Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 38 percent with 16 percent undecided in a poll conducted May 21-22 by SurveyUSA. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. This poll did not include Clinton. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 13 had Obama ahead 44 percent to 42 percent with 8 percent choosing “other” and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent.
• Nevada:Bush beat Kerry 50.5 percent to 47.9 percent. McCain leads both Clinton and Obama in a general election match-up in Nevada, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted April 21. Rasmussen noted that Nevada has voted with the winner in the last seven elections, and in the last four, the winning margin was no larger than 4 points.
• Ohio:Bush beat Kerry 50.8 percent to 48.7 percent. A number of polls portray this key state differently. Obama leads McCain 48 percent to 39 percent with 13 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 16-18. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. Obama has a 13 point advantage among women voters. This contrasts with a Quinnipiac University poll conducted May 13-20 in which McCain led Obama 44 percent to 40 percent, with a 2.8 percent margin of error. Clinton led McCain 48 percent to 41 percent. McCain leads Obama among men voters 47 percent to 39 percent, while Obama has a bare 42 percent to 40 percent advantage among women. By contrast, Clinton runs evenly with McCain among men and leads him by 16 points among women voters. Clinton backers say they would support Obama over McCain by only a 50 percent to 26 percent margin. Voters trust Obama more than McCain by 6 points on the economy and McCain by 14 percent over Obama on Iraq. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 15 had Obama locked with McCain at 45 percent to 44 percent with 5 percent choosing “other” and 5 percent undecided. If Clinton were to stage a miracle and become the nominee, she’d be leading McCain 50 percent to 43 percent.
• Michigan:Kerry beat Bush 51.2 percent to 47.8 percent. McCain leads Obama by 41 percent to 37 percent but with a whopping 21 percent undecided, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 27. The poll did not include Clinton. A May 7 survey by Rasmussen Reports had shown a toss-up race no matter which Democrat runs against McCain. McCain had 45 percent to Obama’s 44 percent with 6 percent saying they’d vote for a third-party candidate and 5 percent undecided. Clinton tied with McCain at 44 percent with 9 percent saying they’d vote for a third-party candidate and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent.
What the Swing States of 2004 Look Like Now
• New Hampshire:Kerry beat Bush 50.2 percent to 48.9 percent. Two recent polls conflict. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 21 shows Obama ahead of McCain 48 percent to 43 percent with 6 percent preferring other and 3 percent undecided. Clinton leads McCain 51 percent to 41 percent with 6 percent preferring other and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. An earlier poll by Dartmouth College’s Rockefeller Center had McCain leading Obama 41.8 percent to 39.3 percent with 18 percent undecided, and Clinton by 45.2 percent to 36.4 percent with 18.4 percent undecided. The survey was conducted April 28-May 2.
• New Mexico:Bush beat Kerry 49.8 percent to 49 percent. Two polls from about the same time period conflict. McCain and Obama run dead even at 44 percent each with 12 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted May 16-18. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. McCain has a big 52 percent to 37 percent lead among white voters (49 percent of the sample) while Obama leads 51 percent to 40 percent among Hispanic voters (39 percent of the sample). McCain has more solid support among Republicans than Obama does among Democrats while McCain polls 13 points better than Obama among independents. In mid-April, McCain led Obama in this poll by 50 percent to 44 percent. However, a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 14 had Obama ahead of McCain 51 percent to 40 percent with 5 percent preferring “other” and 5 percent undecided, and Clinton ahead 47 percent to 41 percent with 8 percent choosing other and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent.
This story was corrected on June 2, 2008 to include three polls that had been inadvertently omitted.
First posted June 1, 2008 1:57 p.m.
Comments
There's a poll by SurveyUSA done 5-16/18 showing Obama up 9 in Ohio and a poll by Rasmussen done 5/21 showing Obama up 5 in NH.
Ever heard of Virginia? Obama will win it. Kerry did not. Your assumptions about which states are "Swing states" are flawed.
Well these are iteresting numbers to look at, but take into account that numbers in the Undecided column are enough to shift the real outcome in most of the polls; also the general electin hasn't even earnestly begun since Barack can't effectively point out McCain's shortcomings without looking arrogant to Clinton supporters. There are also other states that will be in play according to recent polls from Missouro and Virginia and other southern states as McCain's ties to Bush continue to de-energize support for a 3rd Bush term.
I wonder how Obama's aggressive/ambitious new voter registration plan that according to the LA Times should "worry" Republicans will influence. Also, most crosstabs at this juncture show Obama with relatively weak Democratic support a likely cause of this endless primary for a race that ended months ago. If, IF the Clinton campaign can exit graciously, I'd expect to see Obama have a much stronger showing in these early irrelevant polls.
I suggest we take 5 parts of the country & build refinerys, with Nuke Plants, Jail all gang members, & companys that hire illegals..take any drug user & put them in work rekease, & WE THROW ALL the BUMS OUTTA WASHINGTON, & start over
Yeah, ever heard of Virginia. Obama will IN FACT win it. I notice Survey USA's polls showing OBAMA ahead in Ohio and Rasmussen showing him ahead in New Hampshire and New Mexico were notably absent. All meaning OBAMA IS CLEARLY doing much better than Kerry ever dreamed of doing! CQ must be a Republican publication.
Why does the author of this analysis selectively ignore the latest Ohio poll from SurveyUSA which shows Obama up by 9 points over McCain (note that SUSA polls for PA, WI, IA, MI and NM from the same survey period are included). Additionally, the latest New Hampshire from Rasmussen shows Obama up by 5 (again, the author uses Rasmussen polls for MN, OR, WI, CO, IA, NV, OH & MI – many of them older than the NH poll – but selectively skips the NH poll). It seems like the author started out with a pre-determined idea (ie. "Obama is performing only as well as Kerry") and uses polls selectively to back up this statement. The reality is that Obama is significantly out-performing Kerry at this stage of the race. Not only does Obama beat McCain in 7 out of 10 states according to the latest available polling (with 2 other states basically tied), but if you notice the margins in most of these polls, Obama is out-performing Kerry in the margin by which he's winning.
thanks Tom above ... I forgot the recent NM poll from Rasmussen with Obama ahead by 9. So that makes 8 out of 10 swing states where Obama's ahead of McCain (with Michigan basically tied, and Nevada leaning GOP) -- this clearly disputes the author's position that Obama is only at "Kerry-level." Additionally, as others have pointed out above, other states are in play this year. In Virginia (which went comfortably for Bush over Kerry last time) Obama is ahead by 7 according to the latest SurveyUSA -- a poll from the same series mentioned here for other states, but selectively not Virginia.
Readers who have commented on the omission of three polls - for Ohio, New Hampshire and New Mexico - are correct. The omissions were inadvertent. the story has been updated for those polls and because they conflict with some of the other ones we reported, we have removed some of the conclusions from the original. CQ Politics regrets the error and appreciates the input from our readers.
We are still waiting for substance from Barry. No solutions, ,just rhetoric, and references to Bush. Is Bush running for a third term.? His star will dim. He has treated Hillary shabilly and will pay the price
The real issue is not how well Clinton, Obama, or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states. The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes--that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The major shortcoming of the current system of electing the President is that presidential candidates have no reason to poll, visit, advertise, organize, campaign, or worry about the voter concerns in states where they are safely ahead or hopelessly behind. The reason for this is the winner-take-all rule which awards all of a state's electoral votes to the candidate who gets the most votes in each separate state. Because of this rule, candidates concentrate their attention on a handful of closely divided "battleground" states. Two-thirds of the visits and money are focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money goes to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people are merely spectators to the presidential election. Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide. The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 18 legislative chambers (one house in Colorado, Arkansas, Maine, North Carolina, Rhode Island, and Washington, and two houses in Maryland, Illinois, Hawaii, California, and Vermont). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect. See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
Obama will not win Virginia. Even if every black voter in Virginia votes for Obama, he won't win, because Rev. Wright has freaked out white people to such a degree that they will come out to vote in droves for McCain. i.e. because of Wright, there will be increased white voter turnout for McCain in Virginia
Re: Jeff and Obama in VA -- I can see how Wright may have freaked out VA voters such that they'd want to vote for McCain. But two things -- 1, that story spilled a couple of months ago. Americans forget. Not that those people will go and vote for Obama, but they might just stay at home because they'll feel more apathetic by then. 2 -- the reason VA is tipping for dems is not just black people liking Obama. It is also because the DC metro area is getting huge. DC metro is really democratic. That could make the difference. Re: swing state comment up top about leaving out VA (not to mention Indiana, where McCain and Obama are tied, and SC and MO, where they are very close) -- CQ politics took states that were decided by a small margin last time. If Bush whopped Kerry then the state was not included at all. I agree that it would have been nice to include some new possible swing states, as the map is different this election season. Some states that were never in play before might be in play. Mostly, I'd say it looks good for democrats right now.
Another factor favoring Obama in Virginia is the reverse coattails of Mark Warner. Mark is so popular and is going to bury Jim Gilmore by so wide a margin that he may be able to pull Obama over the top.
POST A COMMENT
Oops! The following errors must be addressed: