By Rachel Kapochunas, CQ Staff

Democrat Travis W. Childers ’ takeover of Mississippi’s 1st District in a House special election last month was at least an interruption in the Republican Party’s long ascendancy in the strongly conservative-leaning Southern state.

And a CQ Politics analysis of the upcoming general election contest for that seat — and for the November special election in which former 1st District Republican Rep. Roger Wicker is defending the Senate seat to which he was appointed last December — suggests that Childers’ victory is a harbinger of a very hazardous campaign year for the Mississippi GOP.

CQ Politics has changed its ratings on both the Senate and 1st District House races to reflect the strengthened Democratic Party position and the Republican Party’s increased degree of difficulty. These shifts were prompted in part by the Democrats’ recruitment of a prominent figure, former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, as their challenger to Wicker, combined with Childers’ victory, which underscored the Democrats’ continued momentum in congressional politics since they gained their national Senate and House majorities with big gains in the 2006 elections.

The rating on the Senate special election has been changed to No Clear Favorite, or tossup, from Republican Favored. And for the 1st District general election — a rematch between Childers and Greg Davis, the Republican he defeated by 54 percent to 46 percent in the May 13 special — CQ Politics has changed its rating to Leans Democratic from No Clear Favorite.

These changes do not mean that the Mississippi Republicans are in retreat, nor does it means they do not have a competitive shot to win both of these competitive races. Arizona Sen. John McCain , the presumed Republican presidential nominee, is a solid favorite to win the six electoral votes in Mississippi, a state that Republican candidates have carried in the past seven presidential elections, with George W. Bush winning by margins of 17 percentage points in 2000 and 20 points in 2004.

Wicker and other GOP candidates could also benefit from the campaign organizing efforts of popular Republican Sen. Thad Cochran , who is up for re-election in this year’s regularly scheduled Senate contest and is considered a shoo-in to win a sixth term. And the 3rd Congressional District seat, left open by retiring six-term Republican Rep. Charles W. “Chip” Pickering Jr. , looks to be safely in GOP hands, with former Rankin County Republican Party Chairman Gregg Harper an overwhelming favorite for the general election.

Yet the Democrats’ greatly improved outlook in the state’s two competitive congressional races would have been unimaginable even two years ago, when Mississippi stood largely immune from the pro-Democratic tide that swept much of the nation. Mississippi voters in 2007 comfortably re-elected Republican Gov. Haley Barbour , gave Wicker 66 percent in his bid for a seventh House term and provided Republican Trent Lott, the former Senate majority leader, with an effortless victory for a fourth term.

But Lott decided last December, just one year into that term, to resign his seat to begin a private sector career as a lobbyist. That stunning decision set in motion the chain of events that have cast Wicker as the seriously challenged Senate incumbent and gave Childers his unexpected opportunity to capture Wicker’s former House seat.

Democratic Senate nominee Musgrove is seeking a political comeback after losing to Barbour in his 2003 bid for a second term as governor, a race he lost by 53 percent to 46 percent. But Musgrove, although he lost, was still well thought of by many voters when he left that office, and some state political analysts believe he holds significant advantages against Wicker in the Republican’s first statewide campaign.

“Right now it is in toss-up territory,” said Marty Wiseman, director of the John C. Stennis Institute of Government at Mississippi State University, when asked by CQ Politics about the Senate race. Wiseman noted that several recent polls bolster the idea the race could go either way.

A May survey commissioned by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee found Musgrove with an 8-point lead over Wicker, 48 to 40 percent. A Research 2000 poll commissioned by liberal blog Daily Kos found Wicker with a 4-point lead over Musgrove, 46 to 42 percent.

Though “own” polls done for candidates and partisan groups tend to raise a shadow of doubt, an independent poll by the Rasmussen organization, conducted May 27, had Musgrove leading Wicker by 1 point, 47 to 46 percent.

Wicker has yet to strongly increase his name identification outside of his home base in northern Mississippi’s 1st District. Musgrove, on the other hand, enters the race with high statewide name ID owing to his gubernatorial tenure from 2000 to 2004 and a previous term as lieutenant governor.