CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
June 29, 2008 – 10:57 p.m.
Dole Faces Fight in North Carolina Senate Race
By Marie Horrigan, CQ Staff
North Carolina Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole holds the edge in her bid this year for a second term. But fluctuating polls over the month and a half since state Sen. Kay Hagan won the May 6 Democratic primary have raised questions about how solid and secure Dole is in her status as the favorite.
Hagan defeated four primary opponents with 60 percent of the vote, a strong showing that boosted her into a statistical tie with Dole in a poll taken shortly thereafter. A more recent survey released June 18 showed Dole with a more substantial cushion, but her 48 percent to 38 percent in that poll did not suggest that the contest is out of reach for the longshot challenger.
Dole enjoys near-universal name ID in the state where she was born and grew up before heading to Washington for a career that culminated in her appointments as secretary of Labor and secretary of Transportation by Republican presidents. She has national prominence as the wife of retired longtime Kansas Sen. Bob Dole, the 1996 Republican nominee for president, and she staged a brief bid for the 2000 GOP presidential nomination.
Dole also has a big lead in fundraising, so much so that Hagan has estimated she would need to raise $10 million to have a chance to beat the incumbent. Hagan, according to her pre-primary campaign finance report, had raised $1.5 million but spent most of it during her primary campaign, leaving her with $317,000 as of April 15. Dole reported 10 times as much cash on hand — $3.2 million out of $6.7 million raised — as of the same date.
Based on these advantages, CQ Politics currently rates the race Republican Favored. The rating means Dole is viewed as likely to win, but that the possibility of an upset by Hagen cannot be ruled out.
Political analyst Ferrel Guillory, director of the Program on Public Life at the University of North Carolina in Chapel Hill, said Dole is the clear front-runner in the race, but that fortunes could change between now and Election Day. “Democrats are resilient and will find a way to make Hagan competitive,” he said.
Hagan spokeswoman Colleen Flanagan asserts that, while costly, the primary gave Hagan an opportunity to introduce herself to voters statewide and made her a more recognized figure. She also is now free to campaign full-time, as the state Senate’s annual session ended last week. This opens up her schedule after weeks of legislating during the week and campaigning on the weekends, with a focus on grass-roots events at local establishments such as diners and lunch counters.
For example, Hagan on Friday stopped at the Top Shell Mart in the North Carolina city of Wilmington as part of a gas station tour to discuss the effects of high fuel prices.
Flanagan said that the top issues for North Carolina voters are “bread-and-butter, kitchen table issues” such as gas prices, concerns about job outsourcing and paying for college.
Dole’s campaign, meanwhile, is focusing on her record in six years in the Senate. She already has put up two television ads that emphasize her senatorial clout on key issues — empowering North Carolina sheriffs to deport illegal immigrants who are repeat criminals, keeping open the state’s major military bases and supporting the tobacco quota buyout for farmers and growers.
“She is one tough lady — with major league clout,” narrators say at the end of the first ad. The second ad includes the slogan, “That’s clout. That’s Elizabeth Dole .” The campaign spent about $800,000 running the ads statewide, said Hogan Gidley, Dole’s communications director.
“The people of the state know Elizabeth Dole , they trust Elizabeth Dole and they just like Elizabeth Dole . And she’s been able to accomplish a lot in six years, and so that’s something we’re going to continue to run on,” Gidley said.
Democrats argue that Dole will be vulnerable because her strongly conservative voting record — since she won to succeed retired five-term Republican Sen. Jesse Helms in 2002 — has aligned her too often with President Bush, whose popularity in recent years has suffered even in parts of the Republican-leaning South. Democrats also contend that Dole’s party loyalties were over-exposed when she served as chairwoman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the party’s Senate campaign unit, during a 2006 campaign that saw the GOP lose six seats and control of the chamber.
Dole Faces Fight in North Carolina Senate Race
But Dole portrays herself as an independent lawmaker who has differences with Bush. “The Bush administration has been right on some issues. Tax cuts for everyone across the board. That’s an issue that resonates with North Carolinians because we believe we pay too much in taxes,” said Dole aide Gidley.
But he said she has broken with Bush on other issues, pointing to her opposition to Bush’s immigration proposal aimed at assimilating many currently illegal immigrants, as well as the president’s position on proposed Medicaid cuts and the tobacco buyout program.
“Senator Dole isn’t looking to see what the president’s doing. She’s looking to see what legislation is best for the state of North Carolina,” Gidley said.
Matthew Miller, spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said that strategy may backfire. “I don’t think a Washington record is what the country’s looking for right now,” he said.
But political scientist Guillory said Democrats’ assertions that Dole is too much of a Washington insider may not be as detrimental as they might hope. “This state has had a history of making a distinction between federal candidates and state candidates,” he said, pointing to the fact that the state’s two senators are Republican but the governor and lieutenant governor are Democrats.
Comments
The Libertarian Party is filing a candidate in this race today with the state Board of Elections. A Libertarian candidate could easily turn this race unpredictable.
Senator Dole never rose to the top levels of leadership in the GOP caucus, so her touted clout has to be questioned. In any case, it will come to end in November with expanded Democratic Majorities in both chambers of Congress. If North Carolinians are looking for clout in Congress, they would do better with the proven qualities of Senator Hagen who rose to the top level of leadership in her legislative chamber. In addition, one would expect that the Democratic leadership, seeking to conso;idate their hold on a southern Senate seat would be more accomodating to Senator Hagan, than might otherwise be the case.
Dole has been the absentee senator for the past 6 years. She's always out flitting about with national issues or with the national senatorial campaign and ignoring the local needs of her state. When transit agencies in Charlotte and Raleigh needed help getting funding from the FTA, she told them they should give up their projects! Now she's saying the (local) tourist industry should take a back seat to (out of state) oil companies. She's got a lot of weaknesses.
Its time for a change in NC. We have a "carpetbagger" as a senator that does not care about NC. In fact, I never even heard of her visiting NC until she decided she wanted to be a senator. Its time to send the message to people like Senator Dole that her interests are not NC's interests. We need someone vested in our issues that feels our pain and wants to work for a better tomorrow. I wholeheartedly support Kay Hagen because for once since the long tenure of Jesse Helms and now with the carpetbagger there is a sign of hope!!! I'll be in the trenches trying to make a difference in NC....I stand with you - our future and hope.....Kay Hagen!!!!
Dole can't even answer constituent letters. I've sent several on different subjects and get a form letter back - one time I got seven or eight of the same letter that wasn't even on the topic I wrote about. She votes in lock-step with Bush and never recused herself, instead, voting in situations where her husband had financial conflicts of interest. She has NEVER seen fit to visit western NC. Her staff comes occasionally and only by appointment. She and her pay-to-play husband prefer their Watergate apartment and the DC lobbyist scene. In the true sense, she is a carpetbagger who only came back to run for the Senate.
Senator Dole has not done much for the state of NC. I'm helping to vote her out this time around. You lost me, Liddy!
I saw E. Dole speak for the first time in 2000. I have never been more disappointed in the uninspiring tired stump she droned. 8 years later, her lock-step support for the disaster that has been the Bush2 admin can only mean that she will be swept out on cleaning day, and she will have a career on the occasional talk show and spokesperson for Mature fashions.
Matt -- Who among the voters will know of her weaknesses? So many young new voters have never even heard of Jesse Helms, and her name recognition, along with her gender, could cause lots of new voters to pick her name as "safe" beause they've not done their research on the candidates. Let's face it -- I can't think of a single mainstream media outlet in the entire state of NC that will do a credible job communicating her voting record.
Senator Dole is totally ineffectual for the people of NC. She's spent the last six years as leader of the Republican Senate re-election committee and may have been the official Senate "spokes liar, " sending out talking point filled missives devoid of truth. Has she represented North Carolina? Hell no! She's represented the rich and well connected and provided her pen to the approval of everything Bush and Cheyney asked for. The people of NC were conned. Liddy is the ultimate D.C. insider who has no idea what a Senator is supposed to do.
Liddy Dole is nothing more than a rubber stamp for George Bush. She's done nothing for North Carolina. She's spent the last 6 years working for the RSCC, sending out newsletters filled with talking points (ie. lies). No quotes from Dole...all of the denials listed come from a spokesperson...is that because her nose would grow with every lie she told?
I have known Mrs. Dole for over 30 years. Many many times people have asked me to call her and receive help on problems. She has always had time to see that her staff, takes care of each and every one of her telephone calls. She, has been a great help at Camp Lejune and at Fort Bragg and add in Cherry Point. No service man or retiree has been turned away, help is always there. Central Americans have beena large problem in our area. Her help in seeing that they are returned to their own countries is most welcome. We are tired of gang rapes, drunk driving, murder and wife abuse. We have NEVER had these problems in our area of North Carolina. We pray that she is returned to the Senate and keeps up her good works.
Mrs. Dole is a worthless do-nothing politician. She spends more time getting cosmetic surgery than she does working for the people of NC. She is a perfect example of the worst the Repugs have to offer. I cannot wait to vote her out of office, and I am working hard to get Senator Hagan elected.
amazing that Senator Dole espouses the sort of tasx cuts, ie alternate minimum tax, that favors people of wealth, corporations who have done very well (in fact they have made off like bandits) and has no relief for middle income people. Same old same old with this very unfair tax code. Someone making $40,000 gets deductions but tax on the whole income. However, someone making millions get stuck with the AMT rule that favors the rich, the corporations like Cindy McCain's booze business. With milddle class friends like that, who needs any enemies to make their life miserable.
Before you start writing Dole off, remember, this is the state that elected Jesse Helms . . . five times. I think it's going to be hard to convince large portions of NC to vote against Dole. Hagan is going to have to put several ideas into play: that Dole is more concerned be being a party insider than with supporting NC issues, that she is really out of touch with the needs of her constituents, that she really doesn't have the clout she says she has. Hagan needs to find a couple of bills that Dole authored or co-authored that went nowhere as an example of her 'clout.' Or find that her 'clout' only operates when she's supporting bills that are generally popular anyway.
Elizabeth Dole was once the chief Executive of the American Red Cross. On her watch, the American Red Cross allowed drug addicts, motivated by the $20 reward for contributing blood, to contribute to the national blood supply. They thought that by mixing the blood of numerous donors, the risk of infection would be reduced. Wrong. Anyone who needed blood, during an operation or for whatever reason, was thus subjected to the risk of HIV infection. Dole thuscondemned thousands of hemopheliacs, including my best friend and Best Man, Bob Baldwin, to their deaths. She is unfit for office.
What a horror. She looks like she's been sleeping in the chair in her office. Actually, I'm in favor of that. She does less damage when she's sleeping in the office.
The one time Dole did not vote in lockstep with GW Bush was when she took a position to the right of him on immigration reform. When it comes to issues like foreign intervention and runaway spending, she has voted with those radicals every time. I have tried calling her office on numerous occasions only to be laughed at by snot nosed punks on the line. We are paying their salaries, dammit. It is high time to restore some sense of decency and responsibility to high office.
Dole is pathetic. But Hagen is not much better as a state senator. Her spokesman doesn't even know that our state legislature is STILL in session-- and Hagen is MIA in the budget talks. I dont see much of a difference sadly. Another reddish-dog democratic running against a red republican.
Better North Carolina voters focus on sending election of US Senator back to state legislature. Do that and a lot of problems will be solved including the undue influence special interests have on senators becasue of high cost of getting elected. Prior to about 1916 or there abouts when 17th amendment was passed - senators were chosen by state legislatures. In that manner you can keep carpet baggers and those more concerned about their national profile - so they can wield even MORE influence mostly for their future employers or campaign contributors. Direct election was supposed to end corruption in the process - instead it has made the corruption worse. Always trust government closer to home than national govt. The State - as in central govtl - is a mindless beast like a cancer living off healthy tissue eventually killing the entire body it inhabits. Small is better - closer is better - at least you can phone them or go to their office without incurring massive debt to get there.
I was raised in Eastern NC, schooled in central NC and most of my family lives in western NC. Of all the North Carolinians I know from all across the state, I'm not sure any one of them has ever even heard of Kay Hagan. Sadly, this means that we're probably going to be stuck with Dole for another 6 years. We ought to save some money and just purchase a blow up doll to sit in that seat, since it would get a lot more done than Dole. And if the doll were purchased in NC, it would probably have a better grasp of the state than she does. I personally think she is an embarrassment to the state I love.
Dole has widened her margin in the latest poll released Tuesday 7/1: DOLE OPENS UP 14 POINT LEAD OVER HAGAN IN LATEST POLL
In the past years I've sent Dole many letters requesting information on her stance on various issues, as yet, she hasn't answered one single letter. However, I did get a form letter that had the nothing to do with information I requested. I won't vote for her. She is drawing a salary whiles doing nothing for North Carolina. She doesn't deserve to be reelected, she spends more time in the plastic surgeon's office than she does doing her job.
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