CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
July 23, 2008 – 6:52 p.m.
Congressional Democrats Confident of November Gains
By Greg Giroux, CQ Staff
This Sunday will mark exactly 100 days until Election Day on Nov. 4 — a political milestone of sorts that gave the leaders of the campaign organizations of House and Senate Democrats a pretext Wednesday to put an optimistic face on their prospects.
Charles E. Schumer of New York, the chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), and Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), both said that their party was positioned to increase its numbers in November — and augment the significant gains that Democrats made two years ago in capturing legislative majorities.
“We expect to pick up a whole bunch of seats,” Schumer said of an election cycle in which the seats of 23 Republican senators, including five who are retiring, and just 12 Democratic senators are being contested.
Though Democrats now control both chambers of a Congress that most of the voting public views unfavorably, Schumer pointed to polling data that show more voters presently prefer a Democratic-run Congress to one headed by Republicans.
Schumer arranged 16 Republican-held Senate seats into three rough categories of competitiveness: five contests in which he said the Democratic candidates are ahead; six in which Democrats are “even or close”; and five that “not close yet, but they’re getting there.”
In the first category Schumer included Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico, where Republican senators are retiring, as well as New Hampshire, where Sen. John E. Sununu is trailing Democratic former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, and Alaska, where Sen. Ted Stevens faces a stiff challenge from Democrat Mark Begich, the mayor of Anchorage. Schumer’s second grouping included Oregon, Minnesota, Mississippi, Kentucky, Maine and North Carolina. He included Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Georgia in the third category. (For details about each of these races, please consult CQ Politics’ list of Senate “Races to Watch”.
The only Democratic-defended Senate seat that appears highly competitive is Louisiana, where two-term Sen. Mary L. Landrieu is opposed by Republican state Treasurer John Kennedy.
A very strong showing by Senate Democrats this November would bring the party at or very close to a 60-seat majority that could theoretically break a Republican filibuster keeping a bill from being considered or passed. With Democrats currently in operational control of 51 seats, a filibuster-proof majority would require Democrats to make a net gain of nine Senate seats — something that no party has accomplished since 1980. Schumer said a 60-Democrat Senate in 2009 was “very unlikely” but not out of the question.
Schumer said that Obama heading the Democratic ticket was a “real advantage” to his Senate campaign operation because Obama is running well in states that the DSCC is targeting. Obama “polls better than a traditional Democrat does in very [Republican-leaning] red states.”
Senate Republican campaign strategists have acknowledged a difficult political environment for their party but said some races have trended their way in recent weeks — including the contest in Minnesota, where recent missteps by Democratic nominee Al Franken have enabled Republican Sen. Norm Coleman to regain his footing.
“A hundred days is a lifetime in politics. A lot can happen, and we feel good about where our races are at this point,” said Rebecca Fisher, the communications director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
Van Hollen, Schumer’s House counterpart, expressed confidence that Democrats next year will control more than the 236 House seats they presently hold. Van Hollen said that there are about 75 House districts “in play,” of which 25 are being defended by Democrats and 40 to 50 by Republicans — a partisan ratio that might not have been expected after a 2006 campaign year in which Democrats thrived and after which they might have expected to defend the lion’s share of competitive districts. The DCCC, which is much better-funded than the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), already has reserved $53 million in air time in 51 congressional districts.
“I do think that the big story is that we continue to be on offense, and the Republicans have not been able to take advantage of going after some of our members who might naturally have been on their radar screen,” Van Hollen said.
Congressional Democrats Confident of November Gains
At the same time, Van Hollen warned that House Democrats should not become complacent or engage in “irrational exuberance” about overwhelming seat gains in this election.
House GOP strategists have long acknowledged that their party faces an uphill battle in this election. House Republicans have been emphasizing greater domestic energy production and blaming majority Democrats for the high cost of gasoline — and expect that voters will do the same.
“As long as Democrats continue to defy 60 percent of the American people who want to drill for more oil to lower the cost of gasoline and send their vulnerable members home in August without passing an energy bill, they won’t come anywhere close to winning in the 75 seats they have been ranting about,” said NRCC spokesman.




Comments
"A very strong showing by Senate Democrats this November would bring the party at or very close to a 60-seat majority that could theoretically override a veto from Republican John McCain" Last time I checked, it takes 67 votes in the Senate to override a veto.
A 60 seat Senate majority is not enough to override a veto, which requires 67 votes. It is enough to block a filibuster of course. Also, a filibuster-proof majority would require a Democratic gain of at least 10 seats, since CT independent Lieberman rarely, if ever, votes to block GOP filibusters.
Until we shift control of the government away from the politicians and back to the people nothing is going to change. FREE AMERICA DIRECT DEMOCRACY
Steve you are correct only to the point that the Democrats don't take revenge on Lieberman if he speaks at the RNC in Minneapolis, and kick him out of the Caucus and strip him of the Homeland Security Committee Chairmanship; which of course they should do, as no-one who opposes a Democratic Presidential candidate has any place in a Democratic Congressional Caucus, whether it be in the House or Senate.
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