By Marie Horrigan, CQ Staff

John Gard thinks he has a winning formula in his rematch against Democratic Rep. Steve Kagen , who defeated him in 2006 for the open seat in northeastern Wisconsin: focus on oil and energy as the top campaign issue.

Speaking with CQ Politics in Washington last week, the former Wisconsin state Assembly speaker conceded he was the underdog in the race against a well-funded incumbent. But, reiterating the Republican Party line of the last few weeks, Gard said that the pocketbook issues that matter to 8th District voters all can be tied to the refusal of the majority Democratic Congress to permit exploration and drilling of possible domestic sources of oil. He says those sources include Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, the intercontinental shelf off the East Coast, or oil shale extraction.

John Gard tells CQ Politics that Wisconsin's 8th District race comes down to energy issues.

The issues have changed since 2006, when the longtime state legislator lost 51-49 percent against Kagen, an allergist and first-time politician.

“Fundamentally the issue matrix from 2006 to 2008 has shifted completely. Steve Kagen now is a member of the status quo, a member of Congress, and has refused to allow drilling,” he said.

Members of Congress are “the only group of people on the planet who are blocking us from opening up drilling and exploration” in those three areas, he said.

In his interview with CQ Politics, Gard returned to this issue – and its economic implications – again and again. Gard said that in 2006 he was running against Kagen’s campaign promises, but that this election cycle he can run against Kagen’s record.

“ Steve Kagen ran as a more conservative guy, but he’s voted like a far-left liberal,” he said.

A vote study conducted by Congressional Quarterly indicated that Kagen voted with his party 95 percent of the time in 2007 on issues that divided the two parties. That score that puts him below the median for members of the Democratic caucus, which had a highly unified year in 2007.

Kagen on Tuesday returned from a bipartisan congressional delegation to the Middle East. His campaign manager, Casey Frary, said the congressman “has made his energy policy quite clear.” He supports drilling for new oil and natural gas in the United States, investing in every form of renewable energy available and stopping manipulation of the energy market, she said.

But Gard’s campaign clearly will try to use the oil issue to distinguish himself from Kagen. “Fundamentally in northeastern Wisconsin it’s what Steve Kagen stands for, and what I stand for. And I believe that my views are consistent with the overwhelming majority of people there,” Gard said.

Voting patterns would seem to be on Gard’s side in the race. President Bush won 55 percent of the district vote in 2004 and 52 percent in 2000. But because of the overall Democratic trend this election cycle and Kagen’s boost as an incumbent, CQ Politics rates the race Leans Democrat.

The race is expected to be expensive. The two candidates jointly spent $6 million on the contest in 2006. As of June 30, Kagen raised $1.4 million and had $927,000 in cash on hand while Gard raised $849,000 and had $649,000 on hand.